TPTK, good reads, now what?

[chezlaw]

5 handed.

2 limpers, SB raises, I call from BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], all call.

Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

SB bets, I Raise, limpers both call and SB 3-bets.

I'm fairly confident in my reads:
both limpers are drawing
SB needs a made hand to 3-bet and is probably ahead. Small chance he has a pair plus a draw or a mega-draw.

How should I play from here.

Suppose I call, the limpers call along. Turn is an off-suit 7 (not that bad but limpers could have an 8)and SB bets again. Now what?

Thanks

chez

[PokerNoob]

I fold. The pot is huge, but I think most of the time he's ahead of you, and when he's not the limpers are hanging around for a reason, one of which just got there. So you could be a distant 3rd and drawing dead. Yeah, you could call, hope the limpers just call and either a jack, non diamond ace or a rag hits the river and you improve to beat the overpair or were good all along to KJ or something and the limper's busted draws. But that seems like a lot to dodge. I would hate to put in two more BB's and have a limper raise the river behind me, or call the turn and have the limpers start pumping their draws.

[chezlaw]

Txs, I find it very hard to fold when I might be ahead and might have outs in a large pot. Is it and easy fold or very close?

If the turn is a blank then what? [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K, Q or 8 then it looks an easy fold but a 7 just seems there to taunt me.

chez

[Noodles]

No way can you fold on the flop here,not a chance.
ok a scary board there probably drawing but blanks can fall on the turn and river you know.you might end up chopping aswell.
anyway i think the best move here on the flop wouldve been to wait untill the turn to raise, people will call 2 ,3 bets to draw on a flop like these,you cant protect your hand by raising.also by raising if they do call there is so much money in the pot by the turn that everyone is going to the river.
I would have definetly called the flop bet and see what the turn brings,

[chezlaw]

I wondered about waiting. I felt unsure what to do throughout the hand but thought weak hands with a K, 8 or 1 diamond might fold. Also this SB could definitely not be relied upon to bet the turn (until he 3-bet the flop when it became a pretty sure thing).

Given the flop play, what do you reckon about the turn?

chez

[Noodles]

Well first of all you cant be relying on reads too much at low limits,you will be surprised so many times!
I would rather wait for the turn on scary boards with 2 behind unless they are real fish that will call with anything then raise away on the flop
given the way you played it see what the turn brings and let that giude you, if a scary bet and raise away,

[chezlaw]

[ QUOTE ]
Well first of all you cant be relying on reads too much at low limits,you will be surprised so many times!


[/ QUOTE ]

aw! don't say that just when I'm beginning to trust my reads [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

BTW It was Paradise 5/10 low limits for some but not for me.

[spider]

Folding has to be the best move here all things considered. You need to be drawing to something better than 2 pair/trips in this situation.

But maybe a case could be made for calling one turn bet (but not a raise behind), and folding to a river bet if you don't improve. You have to figure the limpers will raise if either has an 8, but if they don't, you may not be in terrible shape.

I dunno, probably should just fold, especially to the extent SB could have 99 to JJ.

[PokerNoob]

Its not an easy fold for me. But if SB has a made hand based on his SB preflop raise and flop 3-bet (overpair above and set below) and not just a very strong draw like AK or AQ diamonds, I've got to improve to win and there just aren't that many cards that will do it. If he does "just" have AK or AQ diamonds you could in fact be ahead if no 8 is out there. But you still have to dodge kings, queens, eights, diamonds and the drawing dead factor (he might preflop raise with KQ). I guess you could call along, but I always kick myself when he shows the overpair, or I put in 2 BB's to have a limper raise the river behind me. I also don't like the fact that if I improve, I can't raise him with any confidence. I also feel like if I call the turn, I've got to call the river because of the remote possibility of the split.

[Noodles]

[ QUOTE ]
Its not an easy fold for me

[/ QUOTE ]
Well it shouldnt be a fold at all,you are getting 17/1 after the SB 3 bets, there are 2 guys behind you who will call so really 19/1,
you have to be insane to fold this!