LP cold call AXs vs. LAG = 29.50 BB

[bonanz]

welcome to the microlimit forums where i hang out.

nobody's following you around and not many people post their own *session* vpip when they post a hand, or if they do they make note that it's for the session and have a reason for posting it like to point out how good/bad they are running in a session.

If that was your overall vpip that's probably a problem. That's all I was saying. relax

[playersare]

apologies my friend. my hatchet is buried

my first time here and you're right I should have posted overall VPIP if anything, session was irrevalant. I am a confessed recovering 25+%er but PT has me confirmed in the 18 range now.

was probably more loose with AXs and weak offsuit bways here due to opportunities from MP3 and also UTG+1 (77.29, 18.07) who raised ire from MP3 all session but did eventually bust out.

MP3 didn't hold on to his 20BB profit either.

[AngelicPenguin]

Was MP3 hoping you'd raise the river? Seems odd he didn't 3-bet.

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
this is obviously a topic that interests me, since I find myself posting in these flush draw posts a lot. After hearing a lot of the different points, I think SSHE's "Protecting draws and buying outs section (pgs 158-160) are pretty relevant, and I think I'm gonna keep making the raise. I really like your point though that it's more important to buy outs if you have two overcards.

[/ QUOTE ]

After thinking about it some more, I'm beginning to suspect that the raise is actually much worse than calling. I don't know if I'll have time to do it, but I would suggest that you run some twodimes or pokerstove simulations to try to get a sense of what your equity edge on the flop looks like when it's heads up compared to when it's 3 or 4 handed (including when you've succeeded in cleaning up an out). From there, I think you can figure out about how much EV you're getting from each play by playing out the hand mentally.

[playersare]

yeah I think because SB capped the turn even though MP3 nailed his two outer, he was worried about quad 9's.

[Piiop]

Your preflop coldcall is bad. You have terrible relative position acting directly after the LAG and your A4s is not a strong hand.

The flop raise is pretty bad too since I don't think you're very likely to get a free card and you're shutting out players who you want in on your draw.

[davelin]

[ QUOTE ]
Your preflop coldcall is bad. You have terrible relative position acting directly after the LAG and your A4s is not a strong hand.

The flop raise is pretty bad too since I don't think you're very likely to get a free card and you're shutting out players who you want in on your draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

What about cleaning out Ace outs? In SSH it says that when the pot is large (and according to Ed's definition this is) then raising to increase the % of times you win can be profitable.

"Do not play passively with strong hands and draws to keep your customers" - pg 166

[Piiop]

The only time this would be worth it is if A3 and A6 were in the hand and they folded to the raise. I really doubt A9 is folding. Raising increases your chance of winning here very close to 0% of the time.

[Piiop]

Ugh, sorry Davelin. My first response to your post wasn't right and it's too late too edit. I was focused only on thinking that you meant getting A9/A6/A3 to fold when if any other ace to folded it would also be great for the Hero.

Of course, it's very unlikely A9 is folding, fairly unlikely A6/A3 is folding, and possible AT or higher calls 2 cold anyway - especially the PFR LAG who is seeing the river or the loose SB who will probably see the turn with two overs. Still, the raise does have some merit, but I think the value you get from the callers outweighs the amount of times you get a better Ace to fold. (I haven't proved this mathematically and if anyone wants to work it out, I would be happy to be proved wrong.)

This whole situation could've been avoided by folding preflop. This exact situation is what makes the Hero's relative position so terrible.

[davelin]

I agree that Hero's position relative to the pre-flop raiser makes this a little more difficult to play with no one trapped in the middle for additional bets when Hero hits.

You're probably right, the math would probably show that going for overcalls on the flop is more +EV. But I do think that A6 and A3 may fold here, as well as possibly A7 or A8.

Is going for overcalls better? Probably. Is raising here all that bad? I don't think so.