waiting for big edge

[chezlaw]

With all you blokes at the Party, maybe I should stick to Paradise.

I called the flop thinking I should wait for a blank and then raise the turn with a big edge. It all worked perfectly and felt good but is it better than raising the flop.

Paradise 3/6 5 players

CO open limps, I raise with JTo, SB BB and CO call.

Flop JT9r

SB bets, BB calls, CO calls, I call

Turn is a blank.

SB Bets, BB calls, CO Calls, I raise

Thanks

chez

[Soleo]

I am new to HUSH and my opinion could be a little too conservative: I'd limp not raise with JTo after one limper in shorthanded game. Raising turn is good because you have strong hand/position until no 4th straight card came and don't want to scare them on flop. Someone's 3-betting will probably indicate pair+straight draw or even made set/straight but calling to showdown will stay in order.

[helpmeout]

I fold this preflop

You have 2 people trapped on the flop so I think it is best to raise. You dont want KsQs8s and 7s getting a cheap turn card.

Bumping the pot will also allow you to see a showdown/chase your boat if a scare card comes.

[Danenania]

I like preflop. I like flop and turn.

I'm not sure exactly how to evaluate the EV of raising flop vs. waiting, but the only downside to waiting I can think of is that a scary card like the K might come and cause you to miss a turn raise when you are still ahead, but that won't happen very often and you may still be able to get a raise in depending on the action. As far as upsides, you get to charge a double bet--that's the big one--and you get to save 1.5 BB's when it's bet and raised in front of you after a bad card hits the turn.

So, well played from what I can tell.

[kiddo]

Any K, any Q, any 8 and any 7, that is nearly 1/3 of the cards, would kill all action, even if u still are ahead. Raise flop when u are ahead. What was your plan if K, Q, 8 or 7 hit turn and they bet? Call with your 2pair not knowing if they bet straight or?

Calling flop makes hand harder to play and normally dont give you more money when your hand is good at showdown.

[ctv1116]

I assume you got this concept out of SSH, but I think it is misapplied in this case. Maybe its different on Paradise, but at least for Party, a lot of players will bet the flop, encounter a bunch of calls, and then just check the turn (I do this myself frequently if I'm on OESD or flush draw). You might as well take the sure edge rather than the possible greater edge on the turn. In addition, if the scare card does come out, you can bet the turn and safely fold to a raise, since you could easily have raised the flop with the one card straight draw (looking for a free card).

[chezlaw]

bump

hoping for some more views

[TJD]

Raise and hope they ARE on draws. Yup an 8 or a Q or a K or a 7 will make you uncomfortable.

All of the guys with the draws are staying whether you raise or not. This is correct for them since they are getting 12:1+

If the turn is a blank and they all check you will feel silly having thrown away bets on the flop.

Even the turn IS a blank; the SB bets; and it goes call, call and you raise then they are getting 10:1 and the OESDs will call your raise correctly and the gutshots will call (probably) correctly based on implied odds.

I do not believe you CAN protect your hand if the SB is betting out. In that case let's look at our EV by raising and calling assuming they are staying anyway. We have a sure extra 3 bets by raising the flop PLUS we might get even more in if we are reraised. There is NO certainty of raising for value on the turn since they might not bet.

Let assume all 4 cards kill you. Assuming Kiddo's 1/3 as a reasonable estimate then we have 2/3 x 2/3 for them to miss twice. That is 5/9 for them to hit. However you are getting 3:1 on this raise. It is for value!

Since you cannot protect; raise for value!

Eds example has a HUGE pot. This one is not. In addition his "let's wait" hand was a pair of T's on a flush and str8 draw board. Opponents outs were enormous!!!! J,Q,K,A, a club or a card making a str8. In your case it is only the str8 draws you are worried about so your raise is for value!

Raise the flop and be thankful for your good fortune with JTo [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Good luck

T

[Grisgra]

I can see sticking to Paradise -- those 3/6 games are soo full of untricky passive calling stations, making 3BB/100 is a freakin' cakewalk.

I like the play and think that the whole Ed Miller thang works here.

[joker122]

you're slightlt misapplying this concept. with only 2 opponents and a relatively small pot your edge is big enough on the flop to raise and you should go ahead and exploit it there.