A quick pre-flop hand question

[Bobby Cannoli]

First, thanks to all for the great discussions here, I'm learning a lot, and hope I can learn enough to contribute back at some point.

I have a question about a hand I played Saturday in the PStars $1 MTT. It was my first final table ever (WOOHOO!), so that alone was a huge treat. I did play one hand, though, that I wanted to run by you guys. It was a hand that previously, before reading the forums here, I would have mucked instantly, but I thought here a call was appropriate, and wanted feedback to see if I evaluated it correctly.

Two tables left, blinds were 30000/15000, ante 1500. I'm in the BB with 87o. UTG+1 open-raises all-in for ~83K, and it's folded to me. I had a pretty big stack (T500K-700K, don't remember exactly), so calling and losing wouldn't have hurt too badly. But it was just 87o, so my initial reaction was to insta-fold. But I forced myself to think about it for a sec, and my feeling was that I wasn't going against a pair, more likely overcards. And since I only had to call 53K into a (roughly) 135K pot, I was gettting almost 3-1 odds on a call where I was at worst about 2.5 or 3 to 1. I decided to call.

So my question is, was this a correct thought process, or was a fold the better call? Obviously, with a much smaller stack, (but not super short), this would have been a fold, and for a very short stack, an insta-call. Interested in all opinions.

Thanks!

Bobby

[MLG]

i think the call is right. my onle quibble with your thought process is that you sort of guessed overcards. what you should be doing is guestimating how your hands does agaist a range of hands including overcards and pocketpairs. The result I think is clearly a call though.

[zaxx19]

Actually i like the thought process here plus there is always a bonus when your a big stack and can knock out smaller guys especially at a final table. Hate for you to runn into 9-9 here yikes and if the (87) was suited id like it a little more but not a horrible call at all imho and im one of the "tight passives" or so they say lol.

OH AND CONGRATS ON THE FINAL TABLE

[Bobby Cannoli]

Thanks for the replies.

MLG, good point, instead of "assuming" my read was right, figure out where I stand in case I'm wrong.

Zaxx, regarding the 87 being suited or not, agreed, if I had been on a shorter stack, that would have been a definite factor.

As it turned out, I called, he had J9d, and a 9 came on the turn to seal it for him. But I still was comfortable with the call, and happy that I had at least taken the time to think it through, instead of my usual "87o, auto-fold" thought process.

Bobby

[fnurt]

What MLG means is, you want to guesstimate that he has, let's say, a 30% chance of a pair and a 70% chance of overcards, and figure out where you stand in both instances. This kind of composite calculation gives you a more accurate result.

To illustrate, let's say that for some reason, you know the guy must have either AA or AK, no other hand. There are 12 ways to make AA, and 32 ways to make AK, so the chance that he holds AA is 12/44.

If you were to say to yourself, "AK is his most common holding, so I'll put him on that hand," rather than including the possibility of AA as well, you'd be making a serious mistake.

[woostah]

Isnt it 6 and 24 f?

[fnurt]

Is it? There are 4 ways for your first card to be an ace, and then 3 ways for your second card to be an ace...

[Bobby Cannoli]

fnurt,

Thanks for the clarification. I know what MLG meant, but I guess my reply didn't make that apparent [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

As to the possibilies of AA and AK, there are 6 ways to make any given pair, and 16 ways to make any non-pair combo (4 suited, 12 unsuited).

For instance, to make AA:

SCHD represent suits:
AsAc
AsAd
AsAh
AcAd
AcAh
AdAh

so in your example, assuming AA and AK were the only possibilites, then odds of AA are 6/22, or about 27%.

Bobby

[ethan]

[ QUOTE ]
Is it? There are 4 ways for your first card to be an ace, and then 3 ways for your second card to be an ace...

[/ QUOTE ]

This counts A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] as distinct hands. The order you get the cards isn't important, so there are (4*3)/2 = 6 different ways to get AA.