How long can a downswing last for a profitable player?

[pshreck]

Hi all,

No bad beat stories here (although I have more in the past 48 hours than I know what to do with).

Over the past 75 or so SNGs, I am down 12 buy ins. The downswing itself happened basically all at once, with an incredible streak of out of the money places. Since then, I have played about even poker. I have to say.... it is really mentally draining.

So... for all of you 25%ROI + long term SNG players. How long should a streak SIGNIFICANTLY off your ROI last?

I know 75 isnt a huge sample... but I also have a feeling that any long term decent player really shouldnt have all too many losing streaks over 75 games. Not even 1 of these streaks per 1000 games.

So, enlighten me. Is there a point where I have to reevaluate some of the things that im doing? I hate to rethink my game that has served me so well for the past 6 weeks.

Do any of you find your game deteriorate from staring at the screen, playing 4 tables, hand after hand.... If I am getting burntout and consequently playing worse poker, give me some tips on how to avoid this.

Thanks.

[SmileyEH]

I've lost money over 60 SNG's before....I've only played about 500 total at the 10 - 50 level though.

-SmileyEH

[tigerite]

Yes, I did have something similar happen, then I re-evaluated my game and now I'm almost back to the profit I had, and constantly placing in $50 SnGs again. The trick is not to start pushing too much or thinking the others are just there to make up the numbers.. respect their play, respect your own play, and you'll get back to where you were.

I still have no idea how I made so much profit playing the way I used to, it made me believe I was much better than I actually was. I doubt this is the case with you, because I didn't even know about 2+2 back then..!

[mackthefork]

I have 500 and there is a set of 80 with -1% ROI, I imagine its possible for a 30% ROI player to post 200-300 SNGs with a negative ROI, if they played say 10,000 or so, my standard ROI over all my SNGs is close to 30%.

People on here talk about needing 30 buy ins, I have 100 buy ins for my level, and I think the 30 buy in people are suffering from dangerous levels of optimism, but then maybe they know better than I do (probably).

Regards Mack

[jakethebake]

[ QUOTE ]
The trick is not to start pushing too much or thinking the others are just there to make up the numbers.. respect their play, respect your own play, and you'll get back to where you were.

[/ QUOTE ]
An excellent point. I'm definitely making a note of this.

[Chief911]

pshrek,

How bout posting some entire tourney HH's for us, and I'd gladly comb through it to see if there are leaks.

Nick

[AA suited]

i'm in a downswing myself..

$12000 buy-ins (30+3, 20+2, 10+1) w/a 25% roi.

now my roi went down to 5% [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

bad beats, not getting cards, losing coin flips. and this leads to tilt which leads to more loses. (ALOT more loses...why in the hell did i call an all in with 88 at 10/15?)

i stopped playing for 2 weeks and did other things to clear my head to get rid of the tilt. i'm now 35% roi in ~100games.

[Irieguy]

I have "sets" of 300+ SNGs at various levels in various games with ROIs of 25% +, and they all contain a stretch of at least 50 with a negative ROI.

My longest streak is the one I'm currently in, which now numbers 77 SNGs with a negative ROI. In my current batch of 300 $55 SNGs, I have two 50-SNG negative runs in addition to the 77-SNG negative run I'm in now... and my ROI is still pretty good.

I would say that it's fair to expect a run of 100 SNGs with a negative ROI in the midst of any statistically significant sampling (500-1000). I would bet that any pro with more than 10,000 SNGs logged has probably seen a bad run of close to 200-250. Beyond that, you are probably stretching the limits of probability.

One final note with regard to bankroll: I've never been down more than 15 buy-ins at a single limit, so I think the generally accepted 30-50 buy-in recommendation is sound. There's a big difference between having an ROI of -4% over 100 SNGs and having a downswing of 30 buy-ins or more. The former is statistically inevitable, and the latter is statistically improbable. Running bad for 100 tourneys requires no game adjustment if you're playing well... but dumping 30+ buy-ins almost certainly suggests a big leak.

Irieguy

[Marcotte]

How do these long negative ROI streaks affect your hourly rate? There is a fair amount of discussion about pushing marginal edges early with the idea that if you bust out, you can start another tourny and keep your hourly rate up. Have you (Irie or anyone else) compared hourly rate during these downswings to your normal hourly rate?

[stupidsucker]

I am a 30% roi player at the 30s. I have big swings sometimes. Currntly I am on a 128 game -roi. It all came at once, and I have been trying to get out of the hole.

8 losses in a row at the 50s hurts. Dropped back down to the 30s and so it is going slower then if I had the BR to continue at the 50s.