10/20 - You WILL let me steal dammit!

7ontheline · #1 09-06-2005, 01:53 AM

SB here is a known TAG. BB is some random guy, not important. Anyway, I attempt to steal on the button with Q8s. SB has other ideas. I decide that I really want this pot for some reason, so after BB folds I plan to call the flop and raise almost any turn. Most of the time I fold this flop, but against a TAG who is capable of folding I might try this play occasionally. This looks like a nice blank board too. So the turn is just about the best possible card for my draws, giving me a flush and gutshot draw. I semibluff raise the turn, and he thinks for a long time before calling.

My question is this - is it worth trying to bluff the river when I miss? I know I only need it to work 1:10 or so to make it +EV with this size pot, but I seems like if the TAG has decided to call the turn he's planning on showing down. So. . .fire the last round?

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
2 folds, Hero raises, SB 3-bets, BB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (9 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets, BB folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (5.50 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets, Hero raises, SB calls.

River: (9.50 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks. . .

imported_leader · #2 09-06-2005, 02:01 AM

I dont' think he's laying anything down here after the turn call. Looks like a PP or a good A.

aslowjoe · #3 09-06-2005, 02:05 AM

10/20 teating you well?

I was going to say to fold the flop but I decided it was at least close. Fast forward to the turn, if he calls the turn raise he should be calling the river. Meantime 10-1 is tempting.

wackjob · #4 09-06-2005, 02:06 AM

Tough one. Should let it go on the flop vs. a TAG usually. Then again it really depends what kind of TAG is it.. straight forward and aggressive all the time or tricky. Against a tricky TAG I'd much rather not get involved in a bad situation like this. Against the more straightforward TAG I believe your play can work enough, and depending upon your read a river C/R might even get an extra bet, but this of course will really take a great read.

helpmeout · #5 09-06-2005, 02:06 AM

Just try to remember this one line.

"People are not taking shots at me"

This means fold the flop unimproved.

yanicehand · #6 09-06-2005, 02:10 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I was going to say to fold the flop but I decided it was at least close. Fast forward to the turn, if he calls the turn raise he should be calling the river. Meantime 10-1 is tempting.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really agree with this reply. However, as for the whole idea of "I decided that I want this pot for some reason" is dangerous thinking where you start to force spots that can't be forced. I really pick better spots and fold the flop.

yanicehand · #7 09-06-2005, 02:12 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Just try to remember this one line.

"People are not taking shots at me"

This means fold the flop unimproved.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is EXACTLY what I was trying to say in my reply. I see way too many people lose alot by going apeshit in blind battles and steal situations, when all they really need to do is play poker.