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  #31  
Old 07-30-2005, 12:44 AM
Shillx Shillx is offline
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Default Re: Hmmm Flush Draw hand

[ QUOTE ]
Bullshit... AFter looking at this again, our fold equity is non existant, except in the case that we have a villain who is nearly drawing dead with a dry ace or similar draw, in which case we have more equity trying to induce a bet on the river.

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I don't agree at all here. A pretty good aggressive opponent isn't going calldown here with 98s or 99 or whatever IMO. The villian would have to be a fool to play Ax this way and it is unrealistic to think that he holds this hand.

Anyway, the crux of this hand IMO is the pot size. With a smaller pot (say 5 BB) we would obviously want to call and see what we find on the river. In a huge 15 BB pot it would be more tempting to try and raise since any hand that folds (that beats us) is making a big mistake. You have to try and give your opponents a chance to make a mistake. I feel like this is a good time to do so in a pot that is 10 BB + our most likely hand is AK or KQ and the villian is drawing near dead if he doesn't have a king.

Brad
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  #32  
Old 07-30-2005, 12:46 AM
Aaron W. Aaron W. is offline
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Default Re: Hmmm Flush Draw hand

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Hero holds A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] in the CO.

Six to the flop and 12 SB are in the pot.

Flop: K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Check to Hero who bets.

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Ahhh... drunken flop spewing.

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Against very aggressive opponents who fancy themselves decent handreaders, 3-betting flops like this can actually be ok. I don't do it often but when I do, there's certainly a reason for it.

Rob

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Nah, it's not the 3-bet that I find odd. I actually like that part of it, especially since the check-raise drove everyone else out. But I don't think I want to throw in that first bet to start the ball rolling in that direction (far too many variables -- it looks like he chanced upon an excellent spot).
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  #33  
Old 07-30-2005, 01:01 AM
GrunchCan GrunchCan is offline
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Default Re: Hmmm Flush Draw hand

If you raise, he's getting 12:1 on a call. I really really don't think he's going to fold any more than a bluff here.
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  #34  
Old 07-30-2005, 01:09 AM
macdaddy991 macdaddy991 is offline
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Default Re: Hmmm Flush Draw hand

This is by far one of the best post/discussions the micro have seen in a while. It is forcing me to think in ways that go far beyond "playing your cards". It is going in my favorites, and I am pretty sure that this will be a digest entry. Good stuff guys.
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  #35  
Old 07-30-2005, 02:21 AM
istewart istewart is offline
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Default Re: Hmmm Flush Draw hand

[ QUOTE ]
If you raise, he's getting 12:1 on a call. I really really don't think he's going to fold any more than a bluff here.

[/ QUOTE ]

What can a good Villain actually expect to win with if he's raised on this turn?

Side question for Shillx: Would you never raise this turn with AK (or KQ) or would you vary it? (This and the above question are related somewhat.)

And bump because this was a fun read.

Edited to add: I do agree that we have some good fold equity here against a thinking player, but I would not have thought to raise myself.

However, it seems a bit counterintuitive to me that you can fold him out here with a raise but you would never raise a big king on this turn.

I might just be tired. Later, I'll bump this up in the morning.
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  #36  
Old 07-30-2005, 03:11 AM
McGahee McGahee is offline
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Default Re: Hmmm Flush Draw hand

[ QUOTE ]

What can a good Villain actually expect to win with if he's raised on this turn?


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It's not inconceivable that a good villian can think his 8's are good vs. an aggro opponent when he's raised on the turn. The free showdown play isn't that uncommon when the board pairs and the raiser has a marginal hand like a smallish PP or overcards. It may be possible he could've sniffed that out, but this situation is a little different when you're looking at Kings on the board, a PFR, and a flop 3-bet. It'd be a tough call to make but not a psychic one pending Shillx's image.
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  #37  
Old 08-01-2005, 10:16 AM
KingOtter KingOtter is offline
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Default Re: Hmmm Flush Draw hand

[ QUOTE ]

However, it seems a bit counterintuitive to me that you can fold him out here with a raise but you would never raise a big king on this turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think he means if he had a big King he'd do something like this (BB's play, not mine):


Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, CO calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, Hero calls, CO calls.

Flop: (9.50 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, CO folds, BB calls.

Turn: (6.75 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls.

River: (8.75 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 10.75 BB

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
BB has Kc As (two pair, kings and fours).
Hero has Kd Jd (two pair, kings and fours).
Outcome: BB wins 10.75 BB. </font>


If I'd have been 3-bet on the flop I MIGHT have folded to a turn bet. By not raising his TPTK villain kept an aggressive player in, and pulled much more money out of me, to my chagrin.

KO
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  #38  
Old 08-01-2005, 12:03 PM
gopnik gopnik is offline
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Default Re: Hmmm Flush Draw hand

definitely not folding. I am leaning towards raising here. Since SB is good and aggressive, he might not have a king and just trying to represent one by S&amp;G. Thus you'll take it down on the turn by your raise.


If 3-bet just call and fold river UI.
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  #39  
Old 08-01-2005, 12:11 PM
gopnik gopnik is offline
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Default Re: Hmmm Flush Draw hand

I don't like the flop bet either
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  #40  
Old 08-01-2005, 12:28 PM
TomBrooks TomBrooks is offline
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Default Re: Hmmm Flush Draw hand

Call. SB represented having a pair of Kings or better on the flop. Therefore, might have made a set here.
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