$11 Okay Push?

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Level 7: Blinds (75/150)
Seat 1 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 6: Hero ( $1375 )
Seat 3: falcons21ATL ( $1392 )
Seat 1: TrOiCho99 ( $2370 )
Seat 9: brutusmilo ( $2863 )
Trny:16911974 Level:5
Blinds(75/150)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ As Qh ]
brutusmilo calls [150].
TrOiCho99 folds.
falcons21ATL is all-In [1317]
Hero ?

Villain has been pretty tight/aggressive so far. It seemed like a pretty easy push to me?

ez call, unless ur table is extremely tight and ur better off stealing.You'll usually be racing vs a pocket pair or up against Ax here neway.

[SammyKid11]

[ QUOTE ]
ez call, unless ur table is extremely tight and ur better off stealing.You'll usually be racing vs a pocket pair or up against Ax here neway.

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I agree...which is why I like pushing. If you're racing a pocket, okay that's worst case scenario. If you're up against AX or KQ, KJs, etc., then fantastic...excellent chance of a double-up. Plus against just a limp you have pretty decent FE.

On the other hand, you can call off ~12% of your stack and have a >50% chance of not hitting the flop and folding.

Is my logic flawed here...isn't this a push?

[Shillx]

Are we looking at the same post? Some dude moved in before the hero got to act. I don't see how we can play AQ as we have to be a 54-55% favorite against the pushers range. If he is playing TAG I don't see how we have it in this spot though I could be wrong. From SNGPT, it is a sizable mistake if he is pushing 77+ and A9+.

Edit - If the dude in front pushed I'd call with AK and fold AQ. If the dude in front folded I'd push for sure.

Even against a Tag, the blinds are getting steep for the stack that he has. He'll have to end up making a move sooner or later. Only reason i'd fold is if the player wuz a rock and the table wuz really tight. Otherwise this seems like the best spot or you'll have to end up pushing with Ax a bit later down the road.

[tigerite]

[ QUOTE ]
Are we looking at the same post? Some dude moved in before the hero got to act. I don't see how we can play AQ as we have to be a 54-55% favorite against the pushers range. If he is playing TAG I don't see how we have it in this spot though I could be wrong. From SNGPT, it is a sizable mistake if he is pushing 77+ and A9+.

Edit - If the dude in front pushed I'd call with AK and fold AQ. If the dude in front folded I'd push for sure.

[/ QUOTE ]

Finally someone else has looked at the maths.

[jedi]

[ QUOTE ]
Are we looking at the same post? Some dude moved in before the hero got to act. I don't see how we can play AQ as we have to be a 54-55% favorite against the pushers range. If he is playing TAG I don't see how we have it in this spot though I could be wrong. From SNGPT, it is a sizable mistake if he is pushing 77+ and A9+.

Edit - If the dude in front pushed I'd call with AK and fold AQ. If the dude in front folded I'd push for sure.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero is in the Big Blind, right? That skews the numbers enough where I think this is auto call, especially if hero is playing for first. If he is trying to limp into the money, then fold but there's no guarantee that limper villain behind will call the all-in for 1/2 his chips. He might be "action bluffing" here and you could be easily ahead of SB's hand in this situation. SB might just be taking a stand with a worse A high.

That might be a great point--I forgot about the fact that hero really only has ~1150 if he folds.

I still don't think it's an auto-call, though.

[tigerite]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Are we looking at the same post? Some dude moved in before the hero got to act. I don't see how we can play AQ as we have to be a 54-55% favorite against the pushers range. If he is playing TAG I don't see how we have it in this spot though I could be wrong. From SNGPT, it is a sizable mistake if he is pushing 77+ and A9+.

Edit - If the dude in front pushed I'd call with AK and fold AQ. If the dude in front folded I'd push for sure.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero is in the Big Blind, right? That skews the numbers enough where I think this is auto call, especially if hero is playing for first. If he is trying to limp into the money, then fold but there's no guarantee that limper villain behind will call the all-in for 1/2 his chips. He might be "action bluffing" here and you could be easily ahead of SB's hand in this situation. SB might just be taking a stand with a worse A high.

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I allowed for that as I always do. The figures I have quoted are 100% correct.

[tigerite]

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If you're up against KJs, then fantastic...excellent chance of a double-up.

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This is the bubble. It is not "excellent" at all to be up against KJs, seeing as you have to be close to a 55% favourite over his range to make this call, yes AQo v KJs is just over at 59%, but if he has a pocket pair, a call is terrible, as you're ~45%.