Hit a set on turn, but puts 3 flush on board - Page 2

Scuba Chuck · #11 12-08-2005, 11:22 AM

This hand just screams one of those situations where I am WA/WB. And I am wondering what is the best way to win the most/lose the least (is that still correct thinking in SNGs?). For this hand, I checked the turn, intending to check/call the river unless I improved of course, and bet the river if checked to.

I don't know if that line is optimal, but I don't see how I need to go for broke here, on the turn when I only have 1/8 of my stack in the middle.

For instance, let's assume villain called my flop raise with two overcards. He certainly isn't calling any bets on the turn without the flush (with some exception for the ace of flush). So, I'm not getting much value out of betting the turn I think. But on the river, if the board doesn't pair, I get much more out of a value call if checked to.

Once again, I'm just trying to verify how my thought process is. I'm not overly optimistic that my set bet is called on the turn by a hand that I beat.

lacky · #12 12-08-2005, 12:03 PM

bet the pot, and if he pushes, hope he is on a flush draw (likely) or hope you draw out. I aint folding.

course my itm is lower and my percent 1st is higher than most, might be a reason.....

kevstreet · #13 12-08-2005, 12:24 PM

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... I am wondering what is the best way to win the most/lose the least

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Scuba,

Played a similar hand the other day. Had pocket Js flop came J72 all clubs. I was first to act w/ a pot of 400, I had approx 500 behind and I pushed with 3 players left to act. Dude insta-called with K5c and his hand held up. So this is one way to lose the most and I'm not sure I could have gotten away from this hand no matter what I did considering how many chips I had left. Maybe this is flawed thinking?

GtrHtr · #14 12-08-2005, 12:50 PM

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Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t15 (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Hero (t800)
MP1 (t785)
MP2 (t770)
MP3 (t535)
CO (t790)
Button (t775)
SB (t1320)
BB (t698)
UTG (t800)
UTG+1 (t727)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
2 folds, Hero calls t15, 1 fold, MP2 calls t15, 2 folds, Button calls t15, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (t75) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB bets t15, BB calls t15, Hero raises to t90, MP2 folds, Button folds, SB folds, BB calls t75.

Turn: (t270) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero ....

What line do you like best here? Do you like to bet out here, and decide if you call a raise/hope you take it down? Or do you like to check, and see what happens on the river?

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Grunch on this one. I think you need to keep the pot as small as you can from the turn on. This isn't going to be easy with the current pot size. So I'd likely lead out for 50 on the turn (hugely small bet into that pot I know) and take it from there. You have to ask yourself, who calls the flop bet. The possibilities are a smaller set, 2 pair, an overpair or a flush draw. Clearly the two pair and flush draw are the most likely, a check PF eliminates the overpair IMO. I'd call a raise on the turn of 50-100 more to see the river but otherwise fold. If I don't improve on the river I check fold to an overbet.

Note: FYI Grunching on the limit forums can be loosely defined as replying cold, without reading other replies and also as a developmental post seeking input or evaluation on the reply.

Scuba Chuck · #15 12-08-2005, 02:03 PM

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Grunch on this one. I think you need to keep the pot as small as you can from the turn on. This isn't going to be easy with the current pot size. So I'd likely lead out for 50 on the turn (hugely small bet into that pot I know) and take it from there. You have to ask yourself, who calls the flop bet. The possibilities are a smaller set, 2 pair, an overpair or a flush draw. Clearly the two pair and flush draw are the most likely, a check PF eliminates the overpair IMO. I'd call a raise on the turn of 50-100 more to see the river but otherwise fold. If I don't improve on the river I check fold to an overbet.

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I think a lower set & 2 pair both raise my bet here (perhaps even TP). Thus I think the range of caller is more likely a FD, two overcards, or another mid pair. I think it's most likely though, two overcards or the FD. When I narrowed it down to this during the play of the hand, that's why I decided to check the turn, as the two most likely hands that called me, I'm either WA or WB. So I thought that checking the turn was the optimal way to keep the pot small. The one real uber negative to this play is if yet another diamond comes on the river.

pineapple888 · #16 12-08-2005, 02:28 PM

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This hand just screams one of those situations where I am WA/WB. And I am wondering what is the best way to win the most/lose the least (is that still correct thinking in SNGs?). For this hand, I checked the turn, intending to check/call the river unless I improved of course, and bet the river if checked to.

I don't know if that line is optimal, but I don't see how I need to go for broke here, on the turn when I only have 1/8 of my stack in the middle.

For instance, let's assume villain called my flop raise with two overcards. He certainly isn't calling any bets on the turn without the flush (with some exception for the ace of flush). So, I'm not getting much value out of betting the turn I think. But on the river, if the board doesn't pair, I get much more out of a value call if checked to.

Once again, I'm just trying to verify how my thought process is. I'm not overly optimistic that my set bet is called on the turn by a hand that I beat.

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I don't see it as WA/WB because it's a draw-heavy board. I want to charge those draws, or drive them out.

I'd just bet out 150. If Villain pushes, it's read-dependent to me. I don't think folding is as awful as some say, but I'd most likely grit my teeth and call at the 33s (if that's where you are here).

jeffraider · #17 12-08-2005, 02:29 PM

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This hand just screams one of those situations where I am WA/WB.

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Well I've got to disagree with that. If he's got a diamond you're not way ahead and if he already has a flush you're not way behind. I normally thinking of WA/WB situations as where you're either ahead of him drawing to about 3 outs or behind him drawing to about 3 outs.

Just bet 60% of the pot and call any raise, etc.

pineapple888 · #18 12-08-2005, 02:36 PM

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Grunch on this one. I think you need to keep the pot as small as you can from the turn on. This isn't going to be easy with the current pot size. So I'd likely lead out for 50 on the turn (hugely small bet into that pot I know) and take it from there. You have to ask yourself, who calls the flop bet. The possibilities are a smaller set, 2 pair, an overpair or a flush draw. Clearly the two pair and flush draw are the most likely, a check PF eliminates the overpair IMO. I'd call a raise on the turn of 50-100 more to see the river but otherwise fold. If I don't improve on the river I check fold to an overbet.

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I think a lower set & 2 pair both raise my bet here (perhaps even TP). Thus I think the range of caller is more likely a FD, two overcards, or another mid pair. I think it's most likely though, two overcards or the FD. When I narrowed it down to this during the play of the hand, that's why I decided to check the turn, as the two most likely hands that called me, I'm either WA or WB. So I thought that checking the turn was the optimal way to keep the pot small. The one real uber negative to this play is if yet another diamond comes on the river.

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I think this is a strong analysis, but might be too specific in donkland, which is why I bet out (see my other post).

But if you nailed the read, nh, and a check behind then looks correct.

Scuba Chuck · #19 12-08-2005, 03:11 PM

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This hand just screams one of those situations where I am WA/WB.

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Well I've got to disagree with that. If he's got a diamond you're not way ahead and if he already has a flush you're not way behind. I normally thinking of WA/WB situations as where you're either ahead of him drawing to about 3 outs or behind him drawing to about 3 outs.

Just bet 60% of the pot and call any raise, etc.

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Jeff, read my other post about why I think I'm WA/WB. But yes, if he has one diamond, he has 8 outs to improve, and if he already has the flush, I have 10 outs to improve.

GtrHtr · #20 12-08-2005, 03:12 PM

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Grunch on this one. I think you need to keep the pot as small as you can from the turn on. This isn't going to be easy with the current pot size. So I'd likely lead out for 50 on the turn (hugely small bet into that pot I know) and take it from there. You have to ask yourself, who calls the flop bet. The possibilities are a smaller set, 2 pair, an overpair or a flush draw. Clearly the two pair and flush draw are the most likely, a check PF eliminates the overpair IMO. I'd call a raise on the turn of 50-100 more to see the river but otherwise fold. If I don't improve on the river I check fold to an overbet.

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I think a lower set & 2 pair both raise my bet here (perhaps even TP). Thus I think the range of caller is more likely a FD, two overcards, or another mid pair. I think it's most likely though, two overcards or the FD. When I narrowed it down to this during the play of the hand, that's why I decided to check the turn, as the two most likely hands that called me, I'm either WA or WB. So I thought that checking the turn was the optimal way to keep the pot small. The one real uber negative to this play is if yet another diamond comes on the river.

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Why, in your range, do you narrow it down to 2 overcards (and the FD)? Do you think he'd call the flop bet with QJo or KJo or A8o thinking the flop missed both of you and he may have high card? I don't understand. I could see Q9s/o or K9s/o calling, but not 2 random overcards here.