Push against slightly shorter stack on bubble?

[NomadicRiley]

Looking for people's opinion on what to do in the following situation where you're extremely shortstacked and another player has slightly less chips than you on the bubble and it's desperation time...

This was a PP $10/1 SNG, 100/200 blinds

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed)

UTG (t5135)
Button (t1710)
Hero (t695)
BB (t460)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG folds, Button folds, Hero....?

I was torn here between pushing and hoping he'd fold or folding and hoping for a good hand between now and my next bb that i could double or triple up with.

Opinions?

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
Looking for people's opinion on what to do in the following situation where you're extremely shortstacked and another player has slightly less chips than you on the bubble and it's desperation time...

This was a PP $10/1 SNG, 100/200 blinds

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed)

UTG (t5135)
Button (t1710)
Hero (t695)
BB (t460)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG folds, Button folds, Hero....?

I was torn here between pushing and hoping he'd fold or folding and hoping for a good hand between now and my next bb that i could double or triple up with.

Opinions?

[/ QUOTE ]

If he's a very weak player and will fold half his hands here, push. Otherwise, fold.

eastbay

[Jason Strasser]

I bet there is a pure mathematical answer to this problem.

Looking at it closer, you have to push. The BB has 200 committed to the pot, and 460 more to call. So basically you risk 360 to win 560--AND he may fold (I would never fold here, call with any 2 blind). Plus, if you fold, he gains 100 chips and is pretty much even with you in terms of having a chance to make the money.

Push, this is texas holdem baby, any two.

-Jason

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
I bet there is a pure mathematical answer to this problem.

Looking at it closer, you have to push. The BB has 200 committed to the pot, and 460 more to call. So basically you risk 360 to win 560--AND he may fold (I would never fold here, call with any 2 blind). Plus, if you fold, he gains 100 chips and is pretty much even with you in terms of having a chance to make the money.

Push, this is texas holdem baby, any two.

-Jason

[/ QUOTE ]

If you assume a call, a push is wrong by the following argument:

equity after a fold is 15.2% (indep. chip model)
equity of a push and win is 28.6%
equity of a push and lose is ~0%

T4 against a random hand wins 43.5% of the time.

.435*.286 = 12.4%

For a push to be a winning play, he must be a weakie who will fold a decent amount of the time.

eastbay

[Jason Strasser]

What about the fact that if you win you automatically get third at the least, and if you lose you still have a chance for third?

Maybe this is +CEV but is it +$EV?

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
What about the fact that if you win you automatically get third at the least, and if you lose you still have a chance for third?

Maybe this is +CEV but is it +$EV?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, it's a $EV model. So the 28% equity (after a win) reflects the guaranteed 3rd. It's just not double your current equity, so gambling with a 43% winner isn't worth it. Unless the guy could fold.

eastbay

[Jason Strasser]

EB,

Sorry I skipped over the part where u mentioned indep. chip model in your first post.

Listen to him, my instincts are wrong.

-Jason