Party 10/20: KJs capped preflop multiway, flops second pair

bdk3clash · #1 10-27-2005, 08:14 PM

MP is very aggressive preflop and postflop (53.8/25.5/1.9 over >1000 hands). Button (23.5/18.0/1.6 over >1000 hands) appears to be competent and straightforward.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: bdk3clash is CO with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
1 fold, MP raises, bdk3clash 3-bets, Button caps, SB calls, 1 fold, MP calls, bdk3clash calls.

Flop: (17 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, MP bets, bdk3clash calls, Button calls, SB folds.

Turn: (10 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
MP bets, bdk3clash calls, Button calls.

River: (13 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
MP checks, bdk3clash bets

In retrospect this obviously looks way passive. I had my reasons at the time but I'm curious what others think. Most disturbing/troublesome IMHO is the combo of not raising the flop OR the turn.

Man, looking back at this hand I hate not raising the flop.

Lmn55d · #2 10-27-2005, 08:25 PM

on the flop if you raise everyone gets 20:2 so I don't think you're protecting against much. Plus there's a good chance you're behind button unless he has TT or AK. AK has 7 outs and would be making an incorrect fold getting 20:2. MP could easily have you beat however. He could have JJ-AA, AQ, KQ etc. Calling allows you to also see what the button does and possibly fold if it's 2 more back to you. So I think calling flop is good. Now to turn.

A turn raise would give everyone 13:2 or about 6.5:1. This would be able to give gutters and 5 outers incorrect odds. However you still could be behind MP (he's 33% less likely to have a queen in his hand, which doesn't change too much.) If you can fold to a 3bet, I think raising is really good there. You say MP is very aggressive so you might not be able to. He probably still wouldn't 3bet too much without a Q so I don't think you will be 3bet often. So rasie turn.

EDIT: I initially thought SB was still in. Seeing that he's not, you're only really worried about protecting against button's AK if he has it. Since he only has 7 outs and you could easily be behind, I don't think calling is so bad, but I still prefer a raise since there's probably some decent value in it as well.

EDIT 2: As Entity astutely pointed out, AK has 9 outs here rather than 7.

Entity · #3 10-27-2005, 08:33 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Since he only has 7 outs

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AK has 9 outs, doesn't he? (2 K's, 3 A's, 4 T's).

Rob

Lmn55d · #4 10-27-2005, 08:35 PM

yup, good catch sir. Making him make an incorrect fold is more valuable then. What do you think is the best turn play?

Entity · #5 10-27-2005, 08:38 PM

[ QUOTE ]
yup, good catch sir. Making him make an incorrect fold is more valuable then. What do you think is the best turn play?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think raising is correct but I'd probably puss out and call too.

Rob

Luv2DriveTT · #6 10-27-2005, 09:15 PM

[ QUOTE ]

Man, looking back at this hand I hate not raising the flop.

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I think the raise is better on the turn considering the size of the pot, and the pre-flop play.

TT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Victor · #7 10-27-2005, 09:26 PM

well you gotta look at his range i think. say its, 1010-aa and ak. you are in a lot of trouble so i would like to put in as few bets as possible until you find out where you stand.

if you are ahead 1010 has 2 outs and ak has 7 so you arent giving up a ton letting those guys draw whereas if you raise you will likely be 3bet and have to continue since you have odds to improve. i dont like putting in a lot of bets when you are far behind the range.

edit: this is flop anaylsis.

Lmn55d · #8 10-27-2005, 09:33 PM

let's hear some turn analysis dawg, thats the fun part

Victor · #9 10-27-2005, 09:37 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Man, looking back at this hand I hate not raising the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the raise is better on the turn considering the size of the pot, and the pre-flop play.

TT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

since no 3bet on the flop kk and aa should be discounted somewhat especially if the player is competant and straightforward. i would consider myself straightforward, altough competant is a stretch, and i pound the flop all day with those

so is likely slowplaying a monster of has ak or 1010. jj and qq are super discounted due to the info we have. on the turn the pot is 9bb to you and if you call he is easily getting odds for a 7 outer.

so, yea, good time to raise except you gotta deal with lag. or we really able to fold a decent hand to a lag in what will be a very inflated pot, likely 13bb or so if he 3bets.

sfer · #10 10-28-2005, 11:11 AM

Once I get to the turn I'm raising. The second Q will freeze everyone and folding AK/AJ behind you would be sweet.