Hand analysis - what do you think this guy could have?

PokerFox · #1 08-28-2005, 12:41 PM

Brand new table, haven't seen anything yet on this guy.

PokerStars 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 2 folds, Hero raises, 5 folds, UTG calls.

Flop: (5.50 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets, UTG calls.

Turn: (3.75 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets, UTG raises, Hero 3-bets, UTG calls.

River: (9.75 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets, UTG folds.

Final Pot: 10.75 BB

Only thing I can thing is some type of high straight draw? I can't tell, really.

eviljeff · #2 08-28-2005, 12:46 PM

I'd guess guess a combined draw. something like K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

thesharpie · #3 08-28-2005, 12:58 PM

Perhaps he made an expert laydown with bottom set.

Student Caine · #4 08-28-2005, 01:01 PM

Playing Stars 2/4 I think that a flush draw is most likely. He could also have a flush draw with a gutshot straight draw - something like 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]?

He could also have something like K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] which gives him a flush draw, gutshot, and middle pair. I think that this is less likely however as I would expect him to call the last river bet with even middle pair (ignoring the 6's).

Petteri · #5 08-28-2005, 01:05 PM

I would suggest QJ, JT or KJ. JT or KJ of spades would suit the action best. 87 of spades is also possible.

Student Caine · #6 08-28-2005, 01:12 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I would suggest QJ, JT or KJ. JT or KJ of spades would suit the action best. 87 of spades is also possible.

[/ QUOTE ]

You know I didn't consider JT to be a possibility, but only because I don't see many people on stars 2/4 dropping two pair in this situation (no matter what the board looks like). But I guess he could have bottom two and when he gets raise on the turn he puts you on a bigger two pair or the straight. I guess that without a read on the guy it is tough to think about what he is capable of dropping.

Good post, thanks for getting me to think this early in the AM. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Petteri · #7 08-28-2005, 01:26 PM

Pairing on the board clearly counterfaits his two pair if he has JT. After turn 3-bet and pairing of the board river call is waste of money.

In this kind of action 3-bettor has more than 95 % of time at least top pair.

Student Caine · #8 08-28-2005, 02:35 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Pairing on the board clearly counterfaits his two pair if he has JT. After turn 3-bet and pairing of the board river call is waste of money.

In this kind of action 3-bettor has more than 95 % of time at least top pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeesh - I was trying to think of a way to not look like a fool here, but realistically I did not even think about the 6's counterfeiting his JT (it's early here [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]). I agree that JT could definitely be one of his holdings.

Let me ask this, because it is why I did not consider JT on the flop - how often do you think he holds JT but does not play back at you on the flop?

MyTurn2Raise · #9 08-28-2005, 11:05 PM

2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

soweak. · #10 08-28-2005, 11:38 PM

without reading first impressions, my guess is he has AXs. I dont try to generalize but a lot of limpers in EP usually have this type of hand or a small-mid PP. Usually, that is my default read of an unknown, and it usually serves me pretty accurate.

My guess is that, like most people, he thinks a turn check-raise will get you to slow down any hand here, and he may think that he has the best hand. My guess is he has A9s-A7s, and A5s-A2s