J7 suited - keep fishin?

[Pharity]

And there is also a phenomenon called spewing. This sometimes appears when capping OOP with a one card straight for example. I don't think this is the case in this hand though. I changed my mind to a cap, but im not betting a non club river.

[Pharity]

[ QUOTE ]
If UTG has QJ, then we want BB in. If UTG has a set, we want BB to stay in.

[/ QUOTE ]

If UTG has a set and BB has two pair we want BB to fold. He is getting 1:12 with 2 pair if you call, 2:13 if you cap. And yes, if UTG has QJ - we want BB to stay. But if UTG only has a lone J though we want BB to fold 2 pairs.

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
There's no way in hell that we don't have enough equity to pump this pot. There are 12 combinations that are currently ahead and we have 9 outs against 11 of those.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think the cap is this obvious.

We're only losing to 12 combos, it's true, but I'm having trouble identifying a large number of combos we're beating.

Slowplayed sets (which have 9 outs against us) are 12 combos. 98s is 2 more. 76s is 3 combos. I don't know how many we want to throw in because UTG might have decided for some reason to play T8s or AA or 87 or A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] like this, but I don't think we should add too many.

The obvious hand is QJ. We're going to see that at showdown a lot.

We may still have a value cap, but, if so, I still think the decision is closer than you're making it sound.

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If UTG has QJ, then we want BB in. If UTG has a set, we want BB to stay in.

[/ QUOTE ]

If UTG has a set and BB has two pair we want BB to fold. He is getting 1:12 with 2 pair if you call, 2:13 if you cap. And yes, if UTG has QJ - we want BB to stay. But if UTG only has a lone J though we want BB to fold 2 pairs.

[/ QUOTE ]

UTG is pretty unlikely to have a lone jack.

If UTG has a set, then we're going to lose if the board pairs (unless it pairs with the 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]) whether BB stays in or not. If BB has two pair versus UTG's set, BB has 0-4 outs. But he doesn't have any unique outs against us.

[Pharity]

[ QUOTE ]
UTG is pretty unlikely to have a lone jack.

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course, my bad, i misread the board. Somehow thought there was 4 to a straight on board.

[ QUOTE ]

If UTG has a set, then we're going to lose if the board pairs (unless it pairs with the 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]) whether BB stays in or not. If BB has two pair versus UTG's set, BB has 0-4 outs. But he doesn't have any unique outs against us.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmm. You are right. I guess you stick to your initial conclusion to just call? It is probably correct.

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
Hmm. You are right. I guess you stick to your initial conclusion to just call? It is probably correct.

[/ QUOTE ]

The decision seems close to me.

One factor in favor of a cap is that our hand is much stronger than UTG should be giving us credit for.

On the other hand, I'm having a hard time putting BB on less than two pair. Is he now all of a sudden raising A9 because he caught second pair or J8 because he picked up a straight draw? It doesn't seem that likely to me.

It doesn't really matter what I put BB on, though. What counts is how strong UTG thinks BB's hand is. And, in fact, I think most 2/4 players tend to show respect when someone wakes up with a turn raise on a super-coordinated board.

I think UTG will have a set or a straight, the majority of the time. He'll have something we didn't expect at all occasionally too, and the combos do seem to favor us overall -- especially 3-way, if we can count on BB hanging around. But QJ is the only hand we know UTG will 3-bet here.

[crunchy1]

You guys seem too focused on how we're going to lose this hand on the river. You are not nearly focused on the fact that we're holding the second nuts (with redraws) in a 2/4 game. I think you're giving way too much credit for being up against the nuts on the turn.

The only situation that I can find where we don't have an equity advantage in this pot is where we know that either UTG/BB holds exactly QJ (to retract a previous statement I made earlier - even when we are up against this hand we have 9 outs against ALL combinations of QJ - given that we're holding the J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]). There's no way that our range can be that specific and we're certainly getting value when we're ahead.

[gopnik]

hero calls. What's the question? You cannot fold with your flush draw and cannot reraise because you might be against QJ.

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
You guys seem too focused on how we're going to lose this hand on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm more worried that we're behind now.

[ QUOTE ]
You are not nearly focused on the fact that we're holding the second nuts (with redraws) in a 2/4 game.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like this argument. Still, I do think UTG's turn 3-bet says "monster" loud and clear. And partly this is because we're in a 2/4 game.

[ QUOTE ]
I think you're giving way too much credit for being up against the nuts on the turn.

The only situation that I can find where we don't have an equity advantage in this pot is where we know that either UTG/BB holds exactly QJ (to retract a previous statement I made earlier - even when we are up against this hand we have 9 outs against ALL combinations of QJ - given that we're holding the J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]). There's no way that our range can be that specific and we're certainly getting value when we're ahead.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree that we have an equity advantage so long as no one has QJ.

For the record, we effectively have about 9.5 outs versus Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Jx (we can't catch the Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] if it's in UTG's hand, but we can chop versus him if a different queen falls) and 10 outs versus a QJ hand with no clubs.