Performify's Pigskin Picks - Week Seven

jedinite · #1 10-21-2005, 04:34 PM

Last week: 4-2 (and would have been 5-1 had Bulger not gone down) with a win on the Game of the Week
Season: 16-13 overall, 4-2 on Game of the Week.

This week, I'm not exceedingly happy about any of the picks. Game of the week was a tossup this week between Detroit and Philly, but I'm going with my first instinct. GotW in name only as I'm reccommending two unit plays on the first two games, and one unit plays on picks 3 & 4.

All lines current as of posting from Bodog, but please lineshop aggressively.

Detroit +3 at Cleveland
4/6 Yahoo "experts" have Cleveland here as well as a slight majority of the public according to wagerline. Detroit has been playing tenacious defense, especially against the pass and Cleveland is a pass-oriented team with a struggling quarterback. The Browns have been passing the ball nearly twice as much as they run it, leading to seven sacks in the last two weeks. The Lions defense has 10 interceptions on the season. Even if Kevin Jones is out, Detroit still has big-play potential in Bryson at the #2 RB. The Browns have the 27th-ranked defense overall in the NFL and must prepare against both Harrington and Garcia at quarterback. Detroit has been struggling on offense but that's been against three of the NFL's top defenses (Tampa, Baltimore, Carolina) and their "better than they've looked" offense should finally have a coming out party as they're able to run all over a terrible defense. Defensively Detroit will frustrate Dilfer with several sacks and a 1-2 big interceptions. Game of the week. 21-17 Detroit for the outright win.

Philly -3.5 over San Diego
LT is certainly looking hot on the ground, but the Chargers air attack is not. Philly blows out to an early lead at home, helping to neutralize LT. The Chargers aren't nearly as good playing from behind, and can't keep up with the Philly offensive attack. This is a pivotal game for Philly, which will move to 4-2 with the win. The Eagles are coming off a big 33-10 loss to Dallas and then a bye week, so they'll have plenty of motivation to come out strong. Andy Reid is 2-0 at home this season, 2-0 vs. the AFC West this season, and, most importantly Philly is 6-0 after the bye during Reid’s reign. Defensive tackle Darwin Walker should return for the Eagles and that will be a huge help for the defensive line. The Chargers are also banged up after a physical game at Oakland and are flying cross-country. 27-21 Philly.

Dallas +3.5 at Seattle. Seattle is one of the top four biased picks this week on Wagerline (more than 65% on their side) which makes this a public perception game in my opinion. 100% of ESPN analyst picks are for Seattle as well as 5/6 USA today picks Seattle doesn't have a strong offensive line, and Dallas should be able to get serious pressure on Hasselbeck. Seattle is also facing an emotional issue with the Ken Hamlin nightclub assult and will be starting a very weak Marquand Manuel at safety, which Bledsoe and Meeshawn/Glenn should be able to exploit. The Cowboys have looked decently strong in the last two weeks and I look for them to make this a close game if not win outright. 24-21 Seattle for the Dallas cover.

Washington -13 over San Fran
I can't imagine that the Niners have come up with anything for Alex Smith. The Redskins are hot offensively and should be fired up for a home game after last week's tough loss to the Chiefs. San Fran is 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games, while Washington is 4-1 ATS in their last five home games. If you need a good one-week defensive pickup in your fantasy league, take a strong look at Washington this week. This would also be the most straightfoward suicide pool pick, assuming you've still got Washington to pick. Would also be an easy game to hedge with a moneyline bet on San Fran if you do pick Wash as the suicide pick. Anyways, Santana Moss scores two touchdowns here, the Niners continue to suck, and the Redskins roll to an easy 28-10 win.

As usual, all picks archived on my poker blog (performify.com) if you want to go back through them. Any updates due to late developments will be posted in both places.

scott8 · #2 10-21-2005, 04:42 PM

Quick comments about your Seattle write up.

I imagine 65% is about right, but most sharp money went on Seattle when the spread was 3.

Not that this makes the cover any more or less likely, but it should be noted that enough early money when on the Hawks' to move the line off a key number.

jedinite · #3 10-21-2005, 04:45 PM

Thanks for the feedback Scott. I do feel the extra half point is a key move and that was a large factor in this pick being selected over a couple others I was evaluating.

If you're playing Seattle and not at -3 I think you're on the wrong side of this line, but we'll see what happens. I'm not real happy about either of my one unit picks but they are the best of the remaining games in my opinion.

jedinite · #4 10-21-2005, 05:22 PM

Cowboys now at +4 on Bodog, I'm officially adjusting the pick to +4 due to the short window between posting at +3.5 and the move, and because my unit went in at +4 myself. Not that it matters that much, but there is a the additional probability of a push.

jedinite · #5 10-23-2005, 12:46 PM

Adding one unit on Dalls at +5 (-105) for one unit at +4 and one unit at +5 half juice.

jedinite · #6 10-23-2005, 07:24 PM

3-1 for the week with another hit on the game of the week. +2.8 units.

19-14 for the season, 5-2 on the game of the week.

Spot-on analysis on Philly for the win, just missed the half point. Probably should have recommended buying it down to three. Anyways...

#7 10-23-2005, 08:41 PM

Philly was destroyed in the 2nd half. I'm ashamed I took them. SD proved to be the better team even when LT did nothing. It shouldn't have even been this close.

CCx · #8 10-23-2005, 08:45 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Philly was destroyed in the 2nd half. I'm ashamed I took them. SD proved to be the better team even when LT did nothing. It shouldn't have even been this close.

[/ QUOTE ]

I realize the Eagles got lucky to get the win there, but jeez, SD didn't prove a damn thing in that game. The fact with them remains, if you shut down LT and you have an offense that can put together two first downs on the same drive consistently, you can beat them.

#9 10-23-2005, 08:51 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Philly was destroyed in the 2nd half. I'm ashamed I took them. SD proved to be the better team even when LT did nothing. It shouldn't have even been this close.

[/ QUOTE ]

I realize the Eagles got lucky to get the win there, but jeez, SD didn't prove a damn thing in that game. The fact with them remains, if you shut down LT and you have an offense that can put together two first downs on the same drive consistently, you can beat them.

[/ QUOTE ]

They proved they can keep games close with their defense when LT sucks. It was a pathetic performance from the Eagles, and nice coaching Andy Reid! My -3.5 bet actually would've covered, without real justification obviously, if he'd just called for a FG with 15 secs left in the 1st half. Greedy bastard.

CCx · #10 10-23-2005, 08:53 PM

He coached a terrible game - par for the course - team doesn't win scrap throwing 50+ times a game.

Again, if the Chargers were facing an offense that didn't have its head in its ass, they would have lost by two touchdowns.