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#1
09-28-2005, 05:09 PM
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Gamboooool?? Big draw vs all-in overbet.
Villian is relatively tight, seems solid enough. He's definitely not the player I'm focusing on at this table.
I figured him for a set the majority of the time. Top two is possible, NFD is possible. One pair is not. PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) converter SB ($111.95) BB ($51.05) UTG ($52.90) MP ($117.75) Hero ($94.60) Button ($142.90) Preflop: Hero is CO with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $2</font>, MP calls $2, Hero calls $2, Button calls $2, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls $1. Flop: ($10.50) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font> BB checks, UTG checks, MP checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $10</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $140.9 All-In</font>, BB folds, UTG folds, MP folds, <font color="red"> Hero ???????? </font> 
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#3
09-28-2005, 05:23 PM
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Re: Gamboooool?? Big draw vs all-in overbet.
Look at it this way. He has...
A set - you lose 60% of the time A Nut flush draw - you lose 63% of the time Two pair - You win 51% of the time The bet is huge, given the range you put him on this is a fold and its not even close.
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#4
09-28-2005, 05:24 PM
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Re: Gamboooool?? Big draw vs all-in overbet.
15 outs for str8 or flush, 47 cards remaining (about 2:1 odds against), and you are getting roughly 1:1 odds on your money, right? If you insist on putting all your money into the pot, shouldn't you do it on a semibluff?
Or are you adding 6 more outs because you are thinking a pair would win?
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#7
09-28-2005, 05:36 PM
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Re: Gamboooool?? Big draw vs all-in overbet.
[ QUOTE ]
If he's solid, would he really play a set like this? Doing this with two-pair would seem more likely from a solid player. [/ QUOTE ] With two Broadway cards and a flush on the board, I play two pair and a set the same way: FAST. I am going to make someone overpay to hit their draw.
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#8
09-28-2005, 05:39 PM
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Re: Gamboooool?? Big draw vs all-in overbet.
[ QUOTE ]
A set - you lose 60% of the time A Nut flush draw - you lose 63% of the time Two pair - You win 51% of the time The bet is huge, given the range you put him on this is a fold and its not even close. [/ QUOTE ] I only have $82 left. I'm getting 1.35:1 on my money, which is only a marginally bad call against a set. Folding when he holds two pair would be terrible. I'm not sure which move is correct, but it's very close. Edit: I think I just answered my own question about what to do....
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#9
09-28-2005, 05:41 PM
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Re: Gamboooool?? Big draw vs all-in overbet.
don't forget the ever dreaded AT clubs.
I think in these situations, I just think about my metagame purposes and the value of knowing what he pushes here with as next time you might face a similar decision only holding JT.
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#10
09-28-2005, 05:50 PM
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Re: Gamboooool?? Big draw vs all-in overbet.
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] A set - you lose 60% of the time A Nut flush draw - you lose 63% of the time Two pair - You win 51% of the time The bet is huge, given the range you put him on this is a fold and its not even close. [/ QUOTE ] I only have $82 left. I'm getting 1.35:1 on my money, which is only a marginally bad call against a set. Folding when he holds two pair would be terrible. I'm not sure which move is correct, but it's very close. Edit: I think I just answered my own question about what to do.... [/ QUOTE ] don't forget the possibility of 89 clubs. that would be awesome if you call and win with K high.
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