Reasonable spot to bluff?

[JTG51]

.50/1 PLO. To start the hand, I have $200+ and my opponent has about $100. I don't know much about him.

EP, MP, and LP limp. I limp on the button with A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. SB folds and the BB calls. Six to the flop.

Flop: Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Everyone checks to me and I bet the pot, about $6. All fold to MP who calls.

Turn: Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Checked to me, I check.

River: Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Checked to me, I bet the pot.

What do you think of my play on each street? Is this a raise preflop? Good spot to bluff on the river?

[greywolf]

when you checked the turn on a very dangerous board i think you should give up any thoughts on representing a boat on the river it doesnt make sense, of course maybe youre opponent were on some sort of draw himself and is to dumb to realize that you are likely bluffing then go ahead and make a bet, i would consider making a slighly underbet( 4/5 of the pot) as i often do to give myself better odds. If you often play the same opponents , remember to do this sometimes when you arent bluffing so you dont become to easy to read.

[nicky g]

If he's a thinking player, he may well put you on a busted draw bluff - after all, why do you check the turn when an effective blank comes if you have a made hand? On the other hand, there's a pretty good chance he was on a draw too and has very little to call you, with especially as he's not only checked three times but also when you've shown serious weakness on the turn, so it's worth giving it a go; perhaps not a full pot be though. I might bet the turn here. A good player may well call/raise you here with not very much.

[sahaguje]

Hi,

Some thoughts about your play :

Preflop : raise. You have the best position, a pretty good hand, and you have to vary you raises preflop. Unless you have a tell someone will limp reraise (but I guess it is an online hand), raise. You have a big stack compared to your opponents, you have to use it.

Flop : OK.

Turn : I disagree with your play. You should bet, at least 50% of the pot. You are basically telling your opponent : I am on a draw. He is weak : he check called on the flop, and checked on fourth street. Play your opponent, not your cards : bet.

River : I dont like your play here neither. On the turn, you said, "i Am on a draw". Unless the other player is very bad, he will bet with any busted draw on the river. If he checks, there is a good chance he has not much, but want to induce a bluff from you. Check and muck, unless you have a read your opponent is a relly deep weak-tight idiot.

Very intersting hand, though. Dont forget to play your opponent, and dont forget he also sometimes thinks about what you have. Here on the river he basically knows what you are doing ; he knows you are on a draw, and missed. If he did not bet, there is a reason. He wants you to bluff.

See you

sahaguje

[pete fabrizio]

This 9 on the river just makes it more obvious why you should have bet the turn -- you gave up your representing privileges. He would have had trouble calling you with any kind of "made" hand like 2 pair -- and if he called with a draw, he was drawing pretty thin, since a lot of his "outs" give you a nut hand, he had no implied odds, and any blank (particularly one that paired the board), and you easily steal the pot.

If he is a good player, the only hands he will fold on the river here are hands that are probably behind anyway (and maybe a 3, 6, or the like -- though I've seen calls with less).

[Zag]

I want to disagree with some of the others. I think this is a reasonable play on one condition: if this is the same betting pattern that you would have used with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] j[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] j[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Both of these hands would have flopped top two pair and a decent draw, but not a great one. I know that, given position and these hands, I would exactly have bet the flop but checked behind on the turn.

With top two, I want to get to a cheap showdown, if I can, and perhaps induce a bluff on the river. On the turn, especially, I don't want to get blown out by a big check-raise, because I do have outs even if I am behind, but I don't have enough to call a raise.

I guess I am puzzled that you all feel no one would put you on a hand like this. I would expect all the two-pair hands against you to assume that I have at least a 9, and to fold to the river bet.

On the other hand, I don't disagree too strongly with a turn bet, here, either. But the problem is that, if you are called, you really don't want to fire another barrel on the end when you miss. After all, there really aren't that many reasonable draws that would be calling you, because you hold the best draw. Therefore, calls on the flop AND the turn would mean a made hand of some sort, and you might just be blasting off extra chips on the river. But if he WAS calling with some sort of a draw, you definitely want to bet, since you lose to any stray kicker hitting a pair.

Bottom line: I like the way you played it. You still will get called by anyone with a 9, probably, but someone with just a Q or a 6 will fold.

[pete fabrizio]

I say bet both of those hands on the turn as well.

[sherbert]

Hi Zag,

If you have top two, you cannot afford to let another player off on the turn by checking it - especially if you have a draw to go with it, no matter how weak.

You are giving up way too much and also have no way of knowing what to do on the river if the OP now springs a potsized bet at you - especially if it is an innocuous looking card.

Betting is compulsory with the hand you describe. There's almost no two ways about it.

JMO

Cheers,

Sherbert.

[Zag]

The specific situation under discussion is if you have one opponent on whom you have position. You have flopped top two and a weak draw (such as a non-nut flush or an 8-out straight). You have bet the flop and been called, and then the turn was a blank and the opponent checks to you.

[ QUOTE ]
If you have top two, you cannot afford to let another player off on the turn by checking it ... Betting is compulsory with the hand you describe. There's almost no two ways about it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I continue to hold to my opinion, that checking behind is the better play. I am very willing to be convinced otherwise, but here is my reasoning.

If you bet, what worse hands are there that will call? 2 pair worse than top two will probably fold. The lame overpair hands that at least one poster here loves to play will certainly fold (unless he makes the check-raise bluff). So the bottom line is that there are no made hands that you beat which will call, only the drawing hands.

Risk of checking:
1. Drawing hands will not pay to draw at you. Ameliorating factor: With some of those draws, you'll be chopping anyway. For other draws, you hold some of their outs, so they are less likely to hit than would be the case if you didn't have your weak draw.
2. Weak drawing hands and worse made hands (bottom 2 pair, for instance) that would fold now get a chance for a miracle card. (However, see point 6, below.)

Pros of checking:
1. Weaker made hands may overrate your weakness and bet at you on the river.
2. Pot stays much smaller when you are beaten, because you have avoided the check-raise. Note that checking the turn and calling a pot-sized bet on the river costs you exactly the same as if you had bet the turn and folded to the check-raise, and you get to see the showdown.
3. If you are the one drawing, you get to do it for free.
4. Because you showed weakness on the turn, opponent will be unlikely to check, planning to check-raise on the river. Therefore, if a card comes which looks like one that finishes a draw (even if it is not yours) and the opponent checks to you, you can pretty safely bet out and will probably bluff off someone with a set.
5. You can't be bluffed off of a winning hand.
6. Weaker made hands (bottom 2 or top and bottom) and even a stronger hand -- bottom set -- might hit the miracle card that gives them a smaller full house than yours. Now you get their whole stack.

Pros of betting:
1. If opponent is drawing, he now pays to do so. Therefore, you win more money when opponent is drawing and doesn't hit.
2. If opponent has a worse made hand or a bad draw, he will fold and doesn't get the opportunity to pick up the miracle card.

Risk of betting:
1. There are plenty of made hands which are much better than yours, and these will all check-raise you. Your weak draw won't give you odds to call, so you have to lay it down.
2. You are at risk of a check-raise bluff or semi-bluff.

These all add up, to me, that you should check behind on the turn. Agree or disagree?

[Zag]

Since this was a digression from the original note, I am going to repost this as a new thread.