Thinking of turning pro

[SinCityGuy]

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I think it's a pretty big exaggeration to say that in 2 years the influx of new players will dry up to such an extreme.

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That's not exactly the case. There will always be an influx of new players. Some of them bust out. Some of them turn into good players.

What appears to be happening is that more and more good players are playing multiple tables. We might have even reached the point where the number of new players does not offset the number of multitablers playing four, six, eight, twelve tables. If you look at the average table dynamic over the past two years, it is evident that the games are getting tougher.

[oreogod]

You got a music degree, what the [censored] else are you going to do?

Edit: going for a degree, misread that. Still, what the [censored] else are you going to do?

[MicroBob]

obviously we don't know what will happen in the next 2 years or 5 years or whatever.

pre-Moneymaker the idea the partypoker and pokerstars would each have 50k-80k players on any given night was insane.

we don't know if congress will actually pass some form of senator kyl's bill to make it more difficult (and give it significantly more bad publicity) in the U.S.

multi-tabling bots that can beat the system are still a concern too.

But with the growing acceptance as well as the public offering of party on the london exchange i think things are looking good.


however...the concerns of all my favorite fish busting out and all the players being good does NOT concern me.
first, i think i'm a better player than your average weak-tight multi-tabler. If I'm not already I believe in my abilities to study and get better than whatever the standard is. It's NOT going to be a whole string of Howard Lederer's on every table.

Also - there are a WHOLE bunch of gamblers playing -EV games like BJ and roulette and slots, etc who haven't seemed to have run out of money yet.
They keep building more and more casinos all the time for people who keep wanting to lose on these games.

[Uglyowl]

Bob,

Also there is a crapload of 14-17 year olds ready to make the jump. Poker is the new pick up baseball game.

[MicroBob]

yup. this too is obvious.


even IF all of today's fish were to just get frustrated and give up (which I don't think will happen because it doesn't seem to be happening in the other -EV casino games) we have a whole generation of teenagers who LOVE poker and can't wait until they turn 21 so that they can 'play if for real'.

whether or not the poker-fad is still strong enough to hold their interest when they DO turn 21 is another issue entirely.
But I suspect that ENOUGH of these teens will still be into it for the next few years.
Then again, some people thought that magic-the gathering, and pokemon and bay-blades and even way back-when to dungeons and dragons would ALL continue to explode as well.

but poker is different than these in that has that 'vegas-cool' aspect about it.

all of these kids are not only just hooked on the game...but they are also hooked on the images of their favorite players (Hellmuth, Antonio, Ivey, Moneymaker, Farha, etc etc etc).


I think there was an idea out there that 'booms' or 'fads' don't necessarily have to fade.
NASCAR is a pretty decent example.
It just continues to explode (and I still can't figure out why as race-car driving just bores the crap out of me).


Anyway - not having enough crappy players in 2-4 years to keep the games worthwhile is the LEAST of my concerns.

[SinCityGuy]

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however...the concerns of all my favorite fish busting out and all the players being good does NOT concern me.
first, i think i'm a better player than your average weak-tight multi-tabler.

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I agree, Bob. I can beat those games too. However, my point is that the games are getting tougher, and I see that trend continuing.

Take a look at the Party 3/6 game now. The average table VPIP is about 25% with 80,000 players on at peak times. Go back a couple of years and read David Ross' posts when he was multitabling the 3/6 games. There were about 25,000 players on at peak times, and the 3/6 games were all filled with horrible players. I'm talking about an average of 5 or 6 to the flop with most of the pots being unraised. He was playing a weak/tight strategy and destroying those games. That style wouldn't even be break-even in the current games, not withstanding the quadruple player base.

[oreogod]

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Bob,

Also there is a crapload of 14-17 year olds ready to make the jump. Poker is the new pick up baseball game.

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As long as they have money to donate, who cares what they do.

[Sasnak]

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I'm curious, didn't Gordon make all of his money in the dot com boom and not from playing poker? I wouldn't think he'd be the best source if looking for a checklist of things needed before going pro.

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LMAO! Yeah nothing like taking a "risk" with tens of millions of dollars as a safety net. ie, hobby.

~

[Sasnak]

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I don't have any links but I believe that alot of the threads deal with the idea that the boom hasn't reached Asia yet. If it catches on there, the sky's the limit.

LDT

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Which begs the question... When it's "prime time" in Asia, what time is it here? [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

~

[MicroBob]

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That style wouldn't even be break-even in the current games, not withstanding the quadruple player base.

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i agree mostly (although I think it could do 'okay' and might be better than break-even...but certainly wouldn't be +2BB/100 like it might have been back in the day).

a semi-weak-tight multi-tabling style that seems popular for some would NOT get you as far today.
fortunately, it doesn't take THAT much effort to improve one's game to be better than this.

my philosophy is that I feel like I'm at least a little bit smarter than most of the players out there...and that combined with a little extra work CAN continue to make me profitable even if the games get tougher.
if i'm smarter than my opponents then I should win, right?


But you are correct that this general tighetening up of the games would probably mean that fewer players would succeed as pros in the long-term.


Also - instead of ABC, weak-tight on 4+ tables against a 6-players to the flop 3/6 table in the past...NOW we have things like GT+ and notes-exporting via PT and what-not to give one even more accurate reads on their opponents.
Sure...others are using these too....but it really is just a matter of focusing more and trying harder than your opponents WITH these tools and you will be fine and dandy.


Lots of people complain about 3/6 tables where the table-average is VP-24, PFR-12 and that they are just too tough to beat when they are getting that tight.

Well...if one guy is vp-13, pfr-6 and another guy is vp-31, pfr-2 then I would argue that these are BOTH very beatable players.


I haven't been playing the 3/6 full games of late so I really can't say whether they are just not worth it anymore or not. I know that goodguy_1 is VERY concerned about this tightening-up aspect. He predicted that it would come, it is coming, he says it will get worse, he's a pretty smart guy and I respect his opinion and I acknowledge the possibility that I am underestimating the significance of this problem.

However...the new 3/6 6-max game are as good as they get imo....and I don't think that's going to change anytime soon.

If you are going pro and, for whatever reason, can't or won't learn to play 6-max...then that's your problem.
knowledge and comfortability on 6-max tables is increasingly important for all players looking to make a profit imo.