Pot odds drill

krishanleong · #1 04-11-2005, 10:43 PM

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP with T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls, Hero calls, 2 folds, SB raises, 1 fold, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Preflop seemed like an easy limp.

Flop: (7 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets, UTG calls, Hero calls.

9-1 on the flop with 2 overs and a backdoor straight draw. I'm giving myself 3.5 outs for the overcards and .5 for the backdoor straight. I need about 7-1 so I'm good closing the action right?

Turn: (5 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets, UTG folds, Hero calls.

On the turn I'm getting 6-1 with at least a 7 out draw. 1 BB worth of implied odds on the pair outs and 1.5 BB implied odds on the straight. Look okay?

River: (7 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets, Hero calls.

Is the river call okay? I figure it's unlikely that he has me beat, but if he does, I'll lose 2 if I raise. If I raise, he'll release sometimes and call sometimes with Ace high. Who votes raise? Thanks for the input.

Krishan

PokerMike · #2 04-12-2005, 05:59 AM

Add the backdoor flush on the flop. Rest looks good. River action seems very player dependant since you have very very little information on his hand strength right now.

ToneLoc · #3 04-12-2005, 06:05 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm giving myself 3.5 outs for the overcards and .5 for the backdoor straight. I need about 7-1 so I'm good closing the action right?

[/ QUOTE ]

4 outs = 7-to-1? I don't get it...

Malachii · #4 04-12-2005, 06:08 AM

I think because the bet size doubles on the turn, 7-1 is sufficient for a 4 out draw. I call with gutshots getting as little as 6-1 on the flop.

ravballz · #5 04-12-2005, 06:22 AM

Your overcards will be no good if he's got an 8 though.

Guy McSucker · #6 04-12-2005, 06:28 AM

[ QUOTE ]

Preflop seemed like an easy limp.

[/ QUOTE ]

I suppose if your raise button is broken this is a good limp.

Sort of kidding. I make this limp quite a bit and I always feel very feeble doing so. I much prefer raising or folding preflop whatever I've got. JTs is one of those hands I just don't believe in: everyone tells me it's a good hand, and I do win with it, but I just don't like it very much; so much so that I feebly call in situations like this. I would imagine raising is better.

[ QUOTE ]

9-1 on the flop with 2 overs and a backdoor straight draw. I'm giving myself 3.5 outs for the overcards and .5 for the backdoor straight. I need about 7-1 so I'm good closing the action right?

[/ QUOTE ]

No. Four outs = 11-1. Fold.

[ QUOTE ]

On the turn I'm getting 6-1 with at least a 7 out draw. 1 BB worth of implied odds on the pair outs and 1.5 BB implied odds on the straight. Look okay?

[/ QUOTE ]

You could of course be drawing dead, but it's unlikely. However I think your pair outs could be in trouble a lot of the time here: SB raised preflop and has bet flop and turn into two players who limped, when the board is peppered with limpy-looking cards. An overpair is not at all unlikely in my opinion. I'd discount your pair outs more than 50% I think, but I think the straight outs are good.

Let's call it six outs, getting 6-1, with at least 1BB of implied odds for the straight cards. This is very close but I think you can justify a call.

However, there's a mathematical point to make about implied odds with tainted outs. The point is: ignore them.

Why? Suppose you have e.g. six pair outs that you expect are good about 50% of the time, so you count them as three outs. Add in the other outs you may have and calculate yout pot odds blah blah blah... If this means that you call the turn, then when you hit one of these six cards, you'll put money in on the river too. You cannot count this money as part of your "implied odds" because you only win the pot 50% of the time in this situation, so these river bets are breakeven for you if you're heads-up.

Since all we're doing in real life is making estimates, I think the most accurate thing to do is to ignore all implied odds when working with tainted outs.

[ QUOTE ]

Is the river call okay?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think so.

Guy.

tizim · #7 04-12-2005, 06:55 AM

He forgot to mention the backdoor flush outs but included them in his odds estimation. Including the bd flush outs, Hero is roughly 7:1 on the flop.

Jack Bauer · #8 04-12-2005, 06:59 AM

raise preflop. then maybe youll have odds to call. as it stands now your flop call is too loose when you factor in the reverse implied odds when he check folds KQ when you hit a J or T but value bets KK when you hit one of those

the paired board makes things worse. in the event that youre against AA-QQ, youll only have 2 outs if you pair on the turn. normally you have 5.

RamGad · #9 04-12-2005, 07:29 AM

I always discount my outs on the turn as well with the two spades, figuring Jack, 10 or 9 of spades might be not be good 20% of the time = about half an out total reduced. Am I reducing too much? Plus, unless he is very agressive, I'll cut my overcard outs in half with the paired board, giving me 2.5 outs in an 7bb pot. It becomes an easy fold. This assumes sb is passive though. Even implied odds require reads.

If he's agressive, I'll give myself 4 outs for the overs and 3 for the straight, but reduce it a full out as he's agressive and more likely to hold a non pair, (two spades), with a total of 6 outs and an easy call. I fear an overpair from a passive player more than being reverse dominated from an agressive player. Am I overthinking and / or calculating my outs the wrong way? I'm sure the answer to both questions is yes. Been meaning to ask about this.

krishanleong · #10 04-12-2005, 08:28 AM

Nice catch, I forgot the backdoor flush.

Krishan