#11
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Re: Theoretical tournament risk rating
wow thats interesting. im surprised ive never heard of this before
i should rephrase that. ive never thought of using this in a way like you suggested. |
#12
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Re: Theoretical tournament risk rating
Go on... [ QUOTE ]
if you were all in 5 times with winning percentanges 70, 50, 40, 30, and 20 you get a RR=.7*.5*.4*.3*.2 = .0084 so you'd have a .84% chance of winning [/ QUOTE ] I have a 1% chance of winning what? All the hands. So i have a 99% chance of busting? So your % means something else, but im not sure what it is. Or how to interpret. Qualitatively, your "TTR" approaches 0 as your # called pushes increases. ok. and worse matchups hurt it too. How does one use this tool [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] |
#13
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Re: Theoretical tournament risk rating
OT: but BigLimpin, who's that in your avatar? Looks like Ajax? Ibrahimovic is it? Sweet goal though!
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#14
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Re: Theoretical tournament risk rating
[ QUOTE ]
Go on... [ QUOTE ] if you were all in 5 times with winning percentanges 70, 50, 40, 30, and 20 you get a RR=.7*.5*.4*.3*.2 = .0084 so you'd have a .84% chance of winning [/ QUOTE ] I have a 1% chance of winning what? All the hands. So i have a 99% chance of busting? So your % means something else, but im not sure what it is. Or how to interpret. Qualitatively, your "TTR" approaches 0 as your # called pushes increases. ok. and worse matchups hurt it too. How does one use this tool [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] the .84% would be the upper limit of your expected amount of tournaments wins(ie in the long run you can never win more than .84%) its true the number approaches 0 as you increase the number of times you risk elimination, as it should. even if you pushed as a 99% favorite every time you went all in, if you do it too much you will eventually get busted |
#15
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Re: Theoretical tournament risk rating
i've thought about this some more:
basically this is calculating the EV of your last chip, which in a tournament is technically the only one that matters. instead of using a complicated model for the diminishing utility of tournament chips, this is using the utility curve: last chip = 1, rest of the chips = 0 |
#16
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Re: Theoretical tournament risk rating
[ QUOTE ]
for a given tournament, take all the hands in which you were covered all in (ie all the hands you would go out if you lost) and multiply all their EVs(from 0 to 1) together. call this RR = risk rating. your average RR over many tournaments would represent the maximum percent of tournaments you can expect to win with your current playing style you could also do this for different periods in the tournament (4-10 players, 3 players, ...) and come up with your maximum percent to place 3rd, 2nd, 1st [/ QUOTE ] I have no complaints about this, but why do you want to do it? How will it help to evaluate your game? For example, I could just fold every hand except for AA and artificially increase my "RR", while dropping my ROI to 0ish. This is an extreme example, but I think that if you try to use this as an analytic tool then you will end up playing way too timidly at the bubble and your ROI will suffer. I guess you're thinking that you could use ROI as a "return measure" and RR as a "risk measure" and evaluate return vs. risk that way. But you can just use the variance of your tournament returns as a risk measure and if you have a lot of tournaments this will be better. |
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