Turn Decision #2

[helpmeout]

Well at best its probably a flush draw with 15 outs but even so I think its best to give an unknown a bit more respect especially when you have a weak hand.

15 outs is extremely generous
The villain will only have a flush draw here about 5% of the time.
You shouldnt forget about the possibility, but in practice, it should not be much of a concern.

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I don't play this high, but I think he has a pair 99-AA most of the time. That said, I usually fold here, he could be on a flush draw but I generally let this go.

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People will 3-bet stealers with many hands. The more the stealer steals, the more hands he can expect to get 3bet by. For the average stealer, the SB will do this with hands like: KQ up, KJs up, AT up, and 77 up.

[helpmeout]

Well if you think an unknown is going to 3bet the flop with air then go ahead and call down.

A reasonably tight range for him to 3-bet agains a steal would be AT - AK, KJ-KQ, 77-AA.

You are ahead of:
AT, AJ, AQ :
3 * 12 = 36 comboes:

You are behind these with 5 outs:
KJ,KQ,AK, 77, 99-QQ.
12+12+9+ 5*6 : 63 comboes

You are behind these with less or no outs :
88,KK,AA
3*3 = 9 comboes.

To this range, you are ahead on the turn 36/72 = One third of the time. Given that you have outs, that he might 3-bet a bigger range and that you get 2:8,5 when calling down turn and river, I think you cannot fold the turn unless you know that he wouldnt play the lesser hands in the above range like AT this way.

You could raise the turn, folding to a 3-bet, but I would call down, since we have out when behind.

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Well if you think an unknown is going to 3bet the flop with air then go ahead and call down.

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I meant 3bet preflop; I was speaking with regard to hand ranges.