Lash's thought process / TStoneMBD's hand

[Lash]

I want to give you my opinion on the buttons turn 3-bet, but first a little disclaimer of sorts...

I’ve played a lot of semi-short / short 15/30 and 10/20 games on Party over the last year. I’m guessing an average of over 1000 hands per week. I don’t use Poker Tracker because I am a lazy, procrastinating person (a leak I am working on plugging). I don’t know exactly what a “16/10/2” is. Is he tight before the flop on average, or a calendar date from another country? I also don’t know the tempo of the game and other abstract factors that are important in marginal decisions like this (especially short-handed). So clearly my opinions on the turn 3-bet will be out of context.

Maybe I’m not lazy after all! I just realized that everything I’ve typed above could have been summarized by “It depends” and yet I failed to take the easy way out. Oh well, I’ll remember that next time.

I likely would have played the turn the same way he did. I’ll try to give you my thought process as well as my general opinions on why it may be profitable. So for arguments sake, let’s just assume I’m “Mr. 16/10/2” (hero) with A5, and you are the villain.

Hero is 16/10/2 after 7k hands as far as Villain knows.

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (3 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with A5
Hero raises, SB calls, Villain calls.

Flop: (6 SB) 5 , A , J (3 players)
SB bets, villain raises, Hero calls, SB calls.

Turn: (6 BB) 2 (3 players)
SB checks, Villain checks, hero bets, SB folds, villain raises, hero 3-bets, Villain calls.

I think my 3 betting the turn here (in typical short Party 15/30 games) is profitable.

If I assume A5 is no good most of the time when I get check raised in this spot, that alone is not a big enough reason to make just calling the correct play. There are other factors at work. The value of initiative and aggression are increased in short handed environments to the point where the value of whether I’m actually ahead or not in the specific moment starts to mean less. The fact that I send a message (and you receive it) saying “I’m willing to take it to the next level” starts to mean more. That’s the reason most players (myself included) are apprehensive about short play. Sometimes knowing why the correct play is the correct play seems impossible.

Even before this hand takes place I have some pre-conceptions about us (our relationship). I may be aware you are a solid short player, and you will try to abuse that perception by overplaying at times. Usually on the flop, but at times you will reach out on the turn. Even players who don’t think about stuff like this recognize the aggression in these short games and just naturally start giving less respect to check raises.

Most aggressive players occasionally (even often) overplay a lone Ace out of position on the turn in these short games. I must know that you have aggressive tendencies and are likely solid (with or w/o PT). Hell, I check raise at times in your spot with hands a lot more speculative than top pair. The interesting thing is that you are doing just that J.

As the hand unfolds, on some level I’m factoring in what you are capable of doing. The fact that you may semi-bluff is a very real possibility. The fact that you may bluff is not as likely, but possible since you probably think I’m tight. I would expect you to try to abuse my tight/rigid tendencies by bluffing and / or semi-bluffing more frequently.

On some level, I realize TStoneMBD may be thinking along the following lines as the hand unfolds…

“I know he thinks my check raise here is usually top two or a set, plus the chance he cold called the flop w/ a flush draw or a pair he may fold. This is a big argument for me to play the hand in a speculative manner” (semi-bluff)


To “Mr. 16/10/2” It doesn’t matter if your check raise represents top two or a set in this situation. It doesn’t matter if it’s a “solid” play on your part. In fact it doesn’t even matter if your play has +/- EV in this spot. O.K. it does matter, but I’m trying to get a point across. There is a lot more at work here that gets overlooked so often. It’s along the lines of it occasionally being correct to raise, even when you suspect or know you’re behind.

So now we have an even stronger argument for 3 betting here. It may not be a mistake for me to 3 bet TStoneMBD here even though I suspect or even know I’m behind. The reason: I have the motive of initiative and image behind my action.

Anyway, in my mind the above strengthens the case for a 3-bet by “Mr. 16/10/2” being a good play. Granted, most of what I tried to communicate may have little value in the heat of the moment. That’s O.K. though because for me… working this out on paper has been an eye opener. I feel like a better player already. Maybe you can take some positive from the above, and perhaps educate me about any flawed logic or misconceptions I have.

Thanks for listening…

[TStoneMBD]

Thank you lash, I appreciate the time you took the write all this.

For those of you who are confused, I am villain in this hand and I have a flush draw on the flop, but that isn't necessary information for the tag to have since we are playing it from his perspective.

original thread

I've come to the conclusion that I like hero's turn 3bet and respect the tags decision in doing so. I think its an extremely easy 3bet especially if you are capable of folding to a cap, but even if you arent its close but still quite profitable I believe.