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  #1  
Old 12-30-2005, 09:46 PM
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Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 12
Default Re: $100 mtt ub tourney

First, it sounds like you're calling T16000 into a pot of T31000. That means you're getting nearly 2:1 to call.

Assuming your opponent is not on a pure bluff, what are some made and semibluff hands he can have? And how often will you win?

AhKh: 35%
AhTc: 70%
TcTs: 4%
AhAc: 65%
KhKc: 65%

In other words, you're getting the right odds to make this call. If your villain has TT, that's the breaks. If he has the made flush, that's exceptionally painful, but you DO have odds to call, so if you lose, that's harsh. But if you win you're in *great* position to be way up in the money.

I personally think a naked high heart - possibly as part of a pp - is the most likely holding here, because I think the made flush smooth calls you and I think the non-heart hand leads the betting since he was the pfr.

So yeah, I call.
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  #2  
Old 12-30-2005, 10:21 PM
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Default Re: $100 mtt ub tourney

thanks for the reply..much appreciated. i know the odds i didnt really break it down like that. makes it look like a insta call, i called him and he showed Ah5h, i should have known he wouldnt do that on a draw for all his chips that late and in the position he was in, that was my thinking before i called. oh well his flush held up and i finished 22. dont really care about placing, playing to win...if your gonna win you have to gambooool in that spot..
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