10/20 - You WILL let me steal dammit!

[7ontheline]

SB here is a known TAG. BB is some random guy, not important. Anyway, I attempt to steal on the button with Q8s. SB has other ideas. I decide that I really want this pot for some reason, so after BB folds I plan to call the flop and raise almost any turn. Most of the time I fold this flop, but against a TAG who is capable of folding I might try this play occasionally. This looks like a nice blank board too. So the turn is just about the best possible card for my draws, giving me a flush and gutshot draw. I semibluff raise the turn, and he thinks for a long time before calling.

My question is this - is it worth trying to bluff the river when I miss? I know I only need it to work 1:10 or so to make it +EV with this size pot, but I seems like if the TAG has decided to call the turn he's planning on showing down. So. . .fire the last round?

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, BB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (9 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, BB folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (5.50 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB calls.

River: (9.50 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks. . .