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#1
08-30-2005, 02:59 PM
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Over-calling an all-in with three-way action at the final table
This hand recently occured at a local MTT that a friend and I played in. It was a $200+RA with I believe 18 players. Payouts were approximately $3150/$1700/$1050/700/350, in case that's relevant.
It was down to the final three. Blinds 1200/2400 with 100 ante. My friend was the chip leader. Stacks: Button: ~23,000 Small blind: ~27,000 Big blind (hero): ~60,000 The button was a very good but very aggressive player who had shown that he could push with a wide range of hands. The SB was the host of the tournament who is a very solid TAG player. Action: Button pushes all-in, SB pushes all-in (pretty much instantly), hero looks down and finds QQ... hero says "I shouldn't, but I call". Afterwards I expressed my surprise that it was a crying call there, and he said he thought it wasn't that clear. I've since come to my own conclusion on the situation, but I was hoping to get some alternate points of view... so... easy call? easy fold? something else? 
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#3
08-30-2005, 05:28 PM
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Re: Over-calling an all-in with three-way action at the final table
A fold here would be criminal.
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#4
08-30-2005, 05:56 PM
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Re: Over-calling an all-in with three-way action at the final table
It's three handed, call.
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#5
08-30-2005, 06:06 PM
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Re: Over-calling an all-in with three-way action at the final table
[ QUOTE ]
It's three handed, you have both all-ins covered by more than 2x, and you have the 3rd best hand in HE. Thank a higher power for this situation and call while dancing a jig. [/ QUOTE ] FYP
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#6
08-30-2005, 06:26 PM
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Re: Over-calling an all-in with three-way action at the final table
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] It's three handed, you have both all-ins covered by more than 2x, and you have the 3rd best hand in HE. Thank a higher power for this situation and call while dancing a jig. [/ QUOTE ] FYP [/ QUOTE ] I totally never said that.
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#7
08-30-2005, 07:02 PM
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Re: Over-calling an all-in with three-way action at the final table
Hero Folds.
The more I look at this the more of a fold it is on all levels. I have made some simplifying but reasonable assumptions that in a two player situation the player will win 1st based on the proportion of chips that they have. For example if you have 1/2 the chips then you will win 1st 50% of the time. If you have 1/4 of the chips then you win win 1st 25% of the time and 2nd 75% of the time. If hero folds he has an EV of 50% X $3150 + 50% X 1700 = $2425 If hero calls he has some % to win the hand. When he wins the hand he will get the $3150; when he loses he will get $3150 1/4 of the time and $1700 3/4 of the time. If you construct a table hero will have to win ~62% of the time to reach the same EV. Hero is unlikely to be 62% in the pot. I have included the table for those who are curious. At a conceptual level if you are only 50% in the pot then the other 50% of the time you will have a huge chip disadvantage, versus folding and having the same chips. There is the catasrophic result where both players have the same hand that beats you and a third place outcome becomes possible and much more likely than if you fold and they split the pot. If you are a better player then your EV of the heads up with even stacks is greater than $2425. The nature of all in bets signifies at least one premium hand and hero is unlikely to be even 50% in the hand many times. IMO. % to win hand 3150 1700 EV 35.0% 35.0% 65.0% $1,103 $829 $1,931 37.0% 37.0% 63.0% $1,166 $803 $1,969 39.0% 39.0% 61.0% $1,229 $778 $2,006 41.0% 41.0% 59.0% $1,292 $752 $2,044 43.0% 43.0% 57.0% $1,355 $727 $2,081 45.0% 45.0% 55.0% $1,418 $701 $2,119 47.0% 47.0% 53.0% $1,481 $676 $2,156 49.0% 49.0% 51.0% $1,544 $650 $2,194 51.0% 51.0% 49.0% $1,607 $625 $2,231 53.0% 53.0% 47.0% $1,670 $599 $2,269 55.0% 55.0% 45.0% $1,733 $574 $2,306 57.0% 57.0% 43.0% $1,796 $548 $2,344 59.0% 59.0% 41.0% $1,859 $523 $2,381 61.0% 61.0% 39.0% $1,922 $497 $2,419 63.0% 63.0% 37.0% $1,985 $472 $2,456 65.0% 65.0% 35.0% $2,048 $446 $2,494 0.5 0.5 $1,575 $850 $2,425
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#8
08-30-2005, 07:04 PM
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Re: Over-calling an all-in with three-way action at the final table
[ QUOTE ]
Hero Folds. The more I look at this the more of a fold it is on all levels. I have made some simplifying but reasonable assumptions that in a two player situation the player will win 1st based on the proportion of chips that they have. For example if you have 1/2 the chips then you will win 1st 50% of the time. If you have 1/4 of the chips then you win win 1st 25% of the time and 2nd 75% of the time. If hero folds he has an EV of 50% X $3150 + 50% X 1700 = $2425 If hero calls he has some % to win the hand. When he wins the hand he will get the $3150; when he loses he will get $3150 1/4 of the time and $1700 3/4 of the time. If you construct a table hero will have to win ~62% of the time to reach the same EV. Hero is unlikely to be 62% in the pot. I have included the table for those who are curious. At a conceptual level if you are only 50% in the pot then the other 50% of the time you will have a huge chip disadvantage, versus folding and having the same chips. There is the catasrophic result where both players have the same hand that beats you and a third place outcome becomes possible and much more likely than if you fold and they split the pot. If you are a better player then your EV of the heads up with even stacks is greater than $2425. The nature of all in bets signifies at least one premium hand and hero is unlikely to be even 50% in the hand many times. IMO. % to win hand 3150 1700 EV 35.0% 35.0% 65.0% $1,103 $829 $1,931 37.0% 37.0% 63.0% $1,166 $803 $1,969 39.0% 39.0% 61.0% $1,229 $778 $2,006 41.0% 41.0% 59.0% $1,292 $752 $2,044 43.0% 43.0% 57.0% $1,355 $727 $2,081 45.0% 45.0% 55.0% $1,418 $701 $2,119 47.0% 47.0% 53.0% $1,481 $676 $2,156 49.0% 49.0% 51.0% $1,544 $650 $2,194 51.0% 51.0% 49.0% $1,607 $625 $2,231 53.0% 53.0% 47.0% $1,670 $599 $2,269 55.0% 55.0% 45.0% $1,733 $574 $2,306 57.0% 57.0% 43.0% $1,796 $548 $2,344 59.0% 59.0% 41.0% $1,859 $523 $2,381 61.0% 61.0% 39.0% $1,922 $497 $2,419 63.0% 63.0% 37.0% $1,985 $472 $2,456 65.0% 65.0% 35.0% $2,048 $446 $2,494 0.5 0.5 $1,575 $850 $2,425 [/ QUOTE ] Put the two on a range of hands that gives AQ less than a 63%. Keep in mind that the button has a wide range here.
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#9
08-30-2005, 07:08 PM
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Re: Over-calling an all-in with three-way action at the final table
for example one player has aj and the other player has tt.
Hero is only 57% in the hand with QQ. If they both have underpairs hero is ~60% If they have an ace and king between them then its much worse.
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#10
08-30-2005, 07:09 PM
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Re: Over-calling an all-in with three-way action at the final table
[ QUOTE ]
for example one player has aj and the other player has tt. Hero is only 57% in the hand with QQ. If they both have underpairs hero is ~60% If they have an ace and king between them then its much worse. [/ QUOTE ] I'm sorry; I'm on very little sleep and thought 63% was a very low number. Good post.
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