100/200 blind war - Page 2

NLfool · #11 12-19-2005, 02:22 AM

I don't get this bet/fold advice given all the time here. I see it all the time and peoople forget the fold part and call anyways, so in general it sucks. I can't see anything than check/call in this spot

flawless_victory · #12 12-19-2005, 02:24 AM

if u check, it looks like you are prob calling, so i dont expect him to bluff here and i think youre a pretty big fav here to have the best hand, so i like betting and absolutely call a raise... checking just lets him check behind w/ a baby pair or Ahigh and i almost think a busted str8 is more likely to raise ruiver than bet if check to.
i say bet/call.

DcifrThs · #13 12-19-2005, 02:42 AM

[ QUOTE ]
if u check, it looks like you are prob calling, so i dont expect him to bluff here and i think youre a pretty big fav here to have the best hand, so i like betting and absolutely call a raise... checking just lets him check behind w/ a baby pair or Ahigh and i almost think a busted str8 is more likely to raise ruiver than bet if check to.
i say bet/call.
bet/call.

[/ QUOTE ]

i guess the consensus is i give villian too much credit. i read BK's read as that he doesn't do that w/ Ahigh on the flop. wont peel with random hands and probably would just calll down w/ a 2.

if im wrong then bet/call is better.

Barron

PokerBob · #14 12-19-2005, 04:03 AM

i like check/call.

durrrr · #15 12-19-2005, 07:46 AM

i obviously dont disagree w/ your post as i realize you know much more than me; however could you please explain 1 "flaw" that seems to be in your logic?

If you bet; he needs to be bluffing >12% or so of the time for you to call; so if your bet/calling- he has a hand @ most 88% of the time correct? or would you be calling for metagame reasons? I never think about metagame b/c i dont play limit regularly; but i guess i shouldnt try n make these kinda folds?

flawless_victory · #16 12-19-2005, 08:04 AM

dude, youll be getting 10:1... the vast majority of online 1/2 players are bluffing here 10% and folding is also bad 4 metagame, sure.

SA125 · #17 12-19-2005, 10:52 AM

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i say bet/call.

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Bet/call is a win 1 bet/lose 2 prop and, unless you're right 7 out of 10 times, a long term loser. Getting a worse hand to fold or when a worse one raises you is what makes the river bet/call a clear winner. I'm not sure that would be the case here.

mike l. · #18 12-19-2005, 10:57 AM

you need to bet/call. bet because your kicker plays for your 8 and he may have an 8, plus he's calling with any other pair or A at least some of the time. call because the pot is pretty big and people do semi-random weird stuff in blind battles sometimes.

geormiet · #19 12-19-2005, 01:06 PM

You think he checks behind with an 8-smaller kicker? Or any pair for that matter?

By checking the river I think it would sure looks to villian like A or K high that will check call, so he's gonna value pretty much any pair.

DcifrThs · #20 12-19-2005, 03:27 PM

[ QUOTE ]
i obviously dont disagree w/ your post as i realize you know much more than me; however could you please explain 1 "flaw" that seems to be in your logic?

If you bet; he needs to be bluffing >12% or so of the time for you to call; so if your bet/calling- he has a hand @ most 88% of the time correct? or would you be calling for metagame reasons? I never think about metagame b/c i dont play limit regularly; but i guess i shouldnt try n make these kinda folds?

[/ QUOTE ]

sure. the cost of calling and being completely wrong in that he will never ever bluff is the difference between your expectation if he bluffs 8% or 12% or whatever and the expectation if he never bluffs multiplied by the cost of the bet.

the cost of folding in this spot in a blind war given the previous action 4handed 1/2 is much larger than the money you save by folding. you will face many more shots taken at you as you will have labelled yourself a folder. doing this, even the poor players or the normally semi-passive ones will cause all of the players to put you to tougher decisions than you would normally face forcing you into potentially larger mistakes than the X%*1bb mistake you'd make by calling.

this is the way i think about it and i could definately be wrong, but in high limit poker, id choose to play against an easy to read person rather than a decent playing maniac any day of the week.

Barron