How you you run/play in the blinds is all that matters

[cartman]

Hi Victor,

These are some of the most bizarre stats I have ever seen. It suspect it is possible that there is a glitch with your pokertracker since you have extra positions listed. Assuming there is no glitch, I am not sure what exactly your stats indicate, but here is some food for thought.

There are only two ways to "win $ when saw flop". The first is by having everyone else fold and winning uncontested. The other is by going to the showdown and winning. So let's consider the 4 possible results of the hand given that you see the flop:

1)You fold at some point (you lose $)
2)Everyone else but you folds at some point (you win $)
3)You go to the showdown and lose (you lose $)
4)You go to the showdown and win (you win $)

The sum of 2) and 4) give us your "won $ when saw flop" which is extraordinarily high at 50.13%. (Mine is historically almost exactly 40%, for example).

For the sake of comparison, below are your stats for the above list beside mine:


1)You fold at some point (Victor=.3485, Cartman=.4323)
2)Everyone else but you folds at some point (Victor=.3255, Cartman=.2079)
3)You go to the showdown and lose (Victor=.1502, Cartman=.1665)
4)You go to the showdown and win (Victor=.1758, Cartman=.1933)

You will notice that 3) and 4) are very similar for us.

Now, our difference in 1) I think is solely a product of the fact that my VPIP is around 27% and yours is around 23.5%. If we both play 100 hands, I fold about 70 preflop (not 73% because sometimes I get a free play in the big blind and see the flop even though I have no VPIP for that hand). Of the 30 times that I see the flop, I fold about 13 of them at some point postflop (.4323*30=13). So I fold 83 hands at some point during the hand. You fold about 73.5 preflop. Of the 26.5 times that you see the flop, you fold between 9 and 9.5 of them (.3485*26.5). So you also fold 83 hands at some point during the hand, exactly the same as me!

The staggering difference to me is in 2). When you see the flop, you win almost 1/3 of your hands uncontested by making everyone else fold and I only win 1/5. My table selection is exceptional and that may explain a little bit of the difference simply because I may have fewer opponents on average that are capable of folding. But the only explanation that I can come up with for the rest of it is that you must be because you are doing WAY more betting and raising than I am.

I would really like to see your Raise/Bet/Call/Check/Fold/AF for each street. That would probably help us to solve the mystery. I have recently started doing more 3-betting on the flop since I posted these, but here are my stats from the more detail (white) page from a pretty recent 50K hand stretch:


1st Action After PF Raise:
Raise:_______________________ (6.39)
Bet:________________________ (61.02)
Call:________________________ (7.52)
Check:_______________________ (7.61)
Check/Raise:_________________ (0.64)
Fold:________________________ (4.74)
No Flop:____________________(12.08)


_____ Raise%____Bet%____Call%___Check%____Fold%____AF
Flop7.16)___(33.81)___(15.03)___(25.75)___(18.25 )___(2.73)
Turn5.43)___(30.39)___(17.38)___(32.11)___(14.68 )___(2.06)
River5.56)__(30.47)___(20.98)___(32.30)___(10.69 )___(1.72)

Folded to a River Bet: (35.75)

Position:
_______VP$IP___BBperHand___PFR%___WenttoSD%___Won$ atSD%___Won$WSF%
Btn:__(26.84)___(+.11)____(24.51)_____(42.05)_____ (49.78)_____(47.94)
1:____(29.68)___(+.12)____(28.44)_____(41.93)_____ (53.09)_____(47.43)
2:____(18.58)___(+.09)____(17.88)_____(46.04)_____ (55.14)_____(50.20)
3:____(17.48)___(+.07)____(16.85)_____(46.07)_____ (53.11)_____(45.77)
BB:___(29.50)___(-.15)____(9.20)______(28.72)_____(52.71)_____(31.67 )
SB:___(35.30)___(-.05)____(15.91)_____(34.80)_____(54.94)_____(15.91 )


Does anyone else have any idea why his stats are so bizarre?

Cartman

[Victor]

[ QUOTE ]
It suspect it is possible that there is a glitch with your pokertracker since you have extra positions listed. Assuming there is no glitch, I am not sure what exactly your stats indicate, but here is some food for thought.

[/ QUOTE ]

this may be true. i am concerned now. i dont know anything about pt so i dont mess with settings at all so im not sure.

anyway, thanks for analyzing and comparing our stats. here are some more stats.

[arkady]

old news dave, old news.

[witeknite]

Hey Victor. Do you call the flop, than raise the turn a bunch? I think that gets you a lot of folds.

WiteKnite

[Victor]

[ QUOTE ]
Hey Victor. Do you call the flop, than raise the turn a bunch? I think that gets you a lot of folds.

WiteKnite

[/ QUOTE ]

very rarely. i dont think people fold pairs too much.

[MAxx]

50 is crazy high, unusual.... i'm guesssing you are playing really short handed much more so than someone like cartman or myself is.

So my theory is that you get into pissing contests at the tables so much that you endup challenging the other hotheads to heads up matches a ton. Therefore, somewhere around 25% of your 6 max hands are actually from heads up brawls and when there are lesser opponents....you should be winning the flop more often. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[DarkKnight]

Cartman,

I've been having trouble in the BB too, how do your BB stats breakdown to get you to (.15)?
I'm trying to figure out where I'm bleeding here.

No Steal / $ In - 15% of hands for +0.089 BB/Hnd
No Steal / No $ - 61% if hands for -0.274 BB/Hnd

Opponents Attempt Steal 24.4% of the time
Steal Attempted - Fold 15% for -.5 BB / Hand (obviously)
Steal Attempted - Call/Reraise 11% for -.76 BB/Hand (YUCK!!)

ok so I'm getting killed when I defend the blind to a steal but even if I get that up to say (.25) I still need to make a lot more $$ somewhere else.


Thoughts?

[Victor]

[ QUOTE ]
50 is crazy high, unusual.... i'm guesssing you are playing really short handed much more so than someone like cartman or myself is.

So my theory is that you get into pissing contests at the tables so much that you endup challenging the other hotheads to heads up matches a ton. Therefore, somewhere around 25% of your 6 max hands are actually from heads up brawls and when there are lesser opponents....you should be winning the flop more often. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

i do play a lot of 3 handed if one of the players is bad. i suppose this is the reason for the apparent outlier.

at the tables i dont get in pissing matches anymore and i dont play hu on party due to the structure/rake. here, my hu challenges are mostly joking however, i will gladly play.

[kelvin474]

I completely agree. A large contribution to the variability in your result comes from your performance in the blinds since you're seeing more flops in the blinds.

[Surfbullet]

Hey Victor,

When was the last time you updated PT? Just go to www.pokertracker.com and download the latest patch. There was a glitch awhile back with hand history #s that resulted in some weird issues like the ones you are seeing.

If you actually played at 8-handed tables then maybe not, but theres' some weird stuff going on in that db.

Surf