How Many Suckouts Do You Make In Your Tourney Wins?

[winky51]

If you go all in 4x in a row with a 75% chance to win.. then you only win all 4 31% of the time.

.75 x .75 x .75 x .75 = 0.3164%~

that's all I'm saying. I'd rather level out the luck with winning smaller pots 90% of the time and losing 10%. Rather than getting it in with the best hand thats 75% ahead 4 times in a row. The 2 high standard deviations of fish that call you here will eventually beat you in that race. This is in low level $200 tournaments where most of the field are fish. There will be more fish with larger stacks than good player swith large stacks.. So I always have 2-3 larger stacks at my table with 2 of them loose and in the "gambling mood".

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If you go all in 4x in a row with a 75% chance to win.. then you only win all 4 31% of the time.



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this makes no sense.

but sadly, I understand what you mean.

does that make sense?

you are using a control group of 4 rather than an absolute of 4. i get it. 100 sets of 4 allins equals 31 of those sets you will win all 4 allins. originally it sounded as if you were talking about ONLY 4 allins. this was worded poorly, i hope you see why i was confuzzled.

[winky51]

np man. I was confused too when I kept pushing with the best hand and losing tournaments.

"How can I lose I went in with the best hand!?!?!?!"

Now I know and I do much better now [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[bobbycharles]

[ QUOTE ]
If you go all in 4x in a row with a 75% chance to win.. then you only win all 4 31% of the time.

.75 x .75 x .75 x .75 = 0.3164%~


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This may be the Holy Grail I've been looking for...ok, that's a stretch, but I've never done the math from an entire tourney standpoint before.

This could be the single most important concept I never understood. Ok, that's a stretch too...but.. No wonder I'm always so pissed when I get knocked out of a tourney with the best hand going in and lose to the runner runner.

Thanks Winky. Excellent.

I agree with Adanthar, my good finishes come from not suffering bad beats. Getting my money in when I'm ahead and have an edge and it holds up. That needs to happen several times to win a tourney.