Why are we waiting until the turn?

[Aaron W.]

I don't know what it is, but it feels like some sort of disease that's making its way around the micros. Suddenly, everyone wants to wait until the turn to raise. What's the deal? Here are some recent posts (I'm not suggesting that all of these were wrong to wait until the turn):

Wait until the turn to raise?

Another wait until the turn hand

TT - when waiting to raise doesn't protect your hand

I wait until the turn, but now I'm confused

Waiting 'till the turn

The concept of waiting until the turn isn't very complicated. Should you wait until the turn? Here are the basic things to consider:

1) How big is the pot? If the pot is small, just raise it up now. You will make very few mistakes if you raise immediately in a small pot. And "small" here means things like "no preflop raise" and "zero or one callers between you and the flop bettor".

2) How multi-way is the pot? If the pot is only 3-4 handed, raise it up now. Waiting until the turn in a short-handed pot is very often wrong.

3) Who bet? If the bet came from your right, raise it up now. Very often, you will have the best chance of protecting your hand with an immediate raise. This prevents players from picking up backdoor draws, which prevents players from drawing out on you as often.

4) How many cards hurt you? If there aren't many draws available, raise it up now. Here are some examples:

- You have a medium pocket pair (JJ-88) or a medium top pair (T9s on a T64 board) and you are only worried about an overcard falling. Raise now.
- There is just a flush draw. Raise now.
- There is just a 3-straight. Raise now.

When might you wait?

- There are both flush and straight draws out there. *CONSIDER* waiting.
- You have a weak overpair or weak top pair and there is a flush draw. *CONSIDER* waiting.

What should you *CONSIDER*? See #1, #2, and #3. The times to wait are in big pots contested by lots of players when the bet came from your left. This is not a universal characterization, but if you just stuck to these, you will avoid big mistakes.

I should emphasize this point. Failing to wait until the turn is a small error (it very often should be called a "gamble" and not an "error"). Failing to protect your hand is a big error. If you think you might make a mistake, make it the small one, not the big one.

[McGahee]

Hmm, I haven't been reading as much recently, but as of a month ago I thought not enough people were waiting for 4th street. I will check out those linked threads.

There are certainly times you wait when villian on your right bets though. I believe the KK hand in SSH is one of them, and I don't think Miller considers it a 'small' mistake.

Edit: Raise the flop in the first 2 links. The third doesn't matter I don't think, the 4th is a good flat call, the 5th I have no idea what hero is doing on the flop.

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
There are certainly times you wait when villian on your right bets though. I believe the KK hand in SSH is one of them, and I don't think Miller considers it a 'small' mistake.

[/ QUOTE ]

5-handed pots that are capped preflop are extraordinarily rare. If you never waited until the turn in such pots, you would be making a small mistake.

[Roadstar]

Agreed, likely a small mistake because the mistake (if at all) of failing to protect your hand by waiting to raise on the turn, is partially offset by the gain from the value raise on the flop.

[LoaferGee12]

Good post.

[ArturiusX]

Its all about, how Sklanksy puts it, 'passing up on a small edge now to push a larger edge later'.

Think about pot equity. Suppose you have KJ of diamonds. You raise in MP (I hope), and get 3 callers, + the BB calls. The flop comes JT8, one diamond, 2 spades. BB bets into you. In this siutation, you could raise now, exploiting a small edge in equity you have over the field. But think about what turn cards we actually like here. Aces are bad. Kings are kind of good, but could give some people a strong draw on us. Queens are very bad. Jacks are good. T, 9, 8, 7, and even 6, especially of spades are very much bad for us vs some loose fish that could really have any two. These players are bad enough to call a raise on the flop with an outside draw, or any pair.

So suppose we decide to raise. Everyone cold-calls. The turn comes a really bad 9, or any of the cards discussed above. BB checks, you bet, and you get raised behind. Yep, its looking pretty bad. Your equity just went to [censored] with this card, and a queen is the only card that might be saving us... perhaps for the split though.

Your equity on the flop is a little better than those random draws, but if a blank comes on the turn (or a J/K), your equity skyrockets. Suddenly, the random draws have less cards to come. Not only that, by waiting for the turn, the pot is smaller. This means you can either a) make people fold with a raise, or b) have players make big mistakes by calling 2 cold with bad draws.

This is not a play that should be pulled often. Giving a cheap card is always a bad thing. However, if the players are going to be seeing a turn no matter what, and a good number of cards can make your hand seem very shaky, you're better off calling a bet. This is not slowplaying. This is called exploiting a greater equity edge.

Say you have AQo in EP, and we raise. 3 people call, and the BB, and we have 5 to a flop. The flop comes QT4. The BB bets into us. You should raise here everytime. Our aim is not to push people off the pot, its to get them to make mistakes. Our equity would be very large now. We want hand hands like T8 and J8 to pay extra to see the turn. Thats builds us a pot. Because very few cards could come along and obviously hurt our equity, its imperative that we raise now and reap our equity, as its unlikely to grow or shrink on the turn.

Waiting for the turn is not a play you should be using very often, but if the situation comes up, its a great way at saving bets in a difficult situation.

[SlantNGo]

Much appreciated Aaron!

[Bankuri]

[ QUOTE ]
There are certainly times you wait when villian on your right bets though. I believe the KK hand in SSH is one of them, and I don't think Miller considers it a 'small' mistake.


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If I understand you correctly, Miller has a footnote on that hand where he indeed says waiting for the turn to raise is a small mistake (in the sense that it is less +EV). I understand now that in order to do this you need to have a pretty good hand. It's almost a slowplay...perhaps call it a semi-slowplay (akin to a semi-bluff)?

this is a great post. i would love to see some examples where waiting is correct

[jaxUp]

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I understand now that in order to do this you need to have a pretty good hand. It's almost a slowplay...perhaps call it a semi-slowplay (akin to a semi-bluff)?

[/ QUOTE ]

No. Did you read ArturiusX's post above? He is dead on and gives a great explanation of when and why we wait.