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#1
11-25-2005, 06:53 PM
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I always pay off
Party 5/10, opponent is like 25/11 I guess.
I open black AJ UTG, BB defends. flop Ac 4d 7d, check-bet-call turn 8s, check-bet-raise I almost always call down these turn checkraises regardless of board texture if I have TPGK here (GK = 9 or better, in this case). tell me if I'm wrong pls. 
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#3
11-25-2005, 07:02 PM
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Re: I always pay off
thats tough. Its probably a good fold, but Id have to know his intricacies first. Like will he make retarded plays at the pot, or be willing to CR a pair + draw...etc or does he make solid raises that have u drawing for 3 outs at best.
Against just numbers this is tough, but some that do help in PAhud are the Call Continuation Bet and FOld Continuation bests...along with raise turn and Won SD when Raise Turn stats. Over a decent number of hands it can help clear some of these situations up. (on the table I have VPIP, PFR, Tot AF, Went to SD, Attempt to steal, Fold BB to steal and Call/Fold CB). Still hard to hit the button to muck. Anyway, those numbers I mentioned could help u out.
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#4
11-25-2005, 07:07 PM
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Re: I always pay off
I call these down and write it off to metagame. If the board were significantly more dangerous i'd consider a fold.
Surf
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#5
11-25-2005, 07:20 PM
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Re: I always pay off
[ QUOTE ]
I call these down and write it off to metagame. If the board were significantly more dangerous i'd consider a fold. Surf [/ QUOTE ] That adds up to be a pretty expensive metagame purchase. I'm not saying I auto-fold (or even fold at all) in spots like this. I usually call too. But here's what happens inside my head: Flop: *Yay, I hit an ace...time to bet my lock hand* Turn: *Good card, I still feel pretty safe*....(Our House gets raised).....*WTF!! OK, I could be drawing dead, BUT...I think most likely either I have outs to his two pair or I can be ahead to a margin of error for his bad play...I'll call* River: *SH!T I missed. But the pot's too big at this point....I only have to be good 1 in XX times....I CALL AGAIN* (Disappointment sets as villain shows AK or A8 or his set) *What a fish I am...I KNEW I should've mucked on the turn, but I keep doing this. I wonder if other 2+2ers also do this* Can anyone relate?
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#6
11-25-2005, 08:25 PM
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Re: I always pay off
Selective memory maybe? I see TAGs take shots at me a not-infrequent amount of the time. I'm too lazy/tired to do the math and see how often he has to be raising a worse hand here for our calldown to be good, but at the games I play in (15/30) you can't fold this or you'll get run over. At 5/10 with a UTG vs BB battle you could probably let it go. I can't remember what that game is even like anymore, and I've been told that my play there was probably sub-optimal because I considered metagame too heavily and my play was more suited to 10/20+.
Surf
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#7
11-26-2005, 05:38 AM
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Re: I always pay off
[ QUOTE ]
Selective memory maybe? I see TAGs take shots at me a not-infrequent amount of the time. I'm too lazy/tired to do the math and see how often he has to be raising a worse hand here for our calldown to be good [/ QUOTE ] Pot is 6BB after the turn c/r, so we have to be good 2/7 times here for this to be profitable? Is my thinking off here? Obviously there are metagame considerations, but maybe not so much at 5/10. Ignore that for now. I usually call down here, but if 2/7 is right, I can't see that being correct. What about calling down a certain portion of the time just to avoid getting steamrolled, or is that just stupid?
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#8
11-26-2005, 07:26 AM
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Re: I always pay off
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Selective memory maybe? I see TAGs take shots at me a not-infrequent amount of the time. I'm too lazy/tired to do the math and see how often he has to be raising a worse hand here for our calldown to be good [/ QUOTE ] Pot is 6BB after the turn c/r, so we have to be good 2/7 times here for this to be profitable? Is my thinking off here? Obviously there are metagame considerations, but maybe not so much at 5/10. Ignore that for now. I usually call down here, but if 2/7 is right, I can't see that being correct. What about calling down a certain portion of the time just to avoid getting steamrolled, or is that just stupid? [/ QUOTE ] would like some feedback please
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#10
11-25-2005, 09:12 PM
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Re: I always pay off
[ QUOTE ]
Flop: *Yay, I hit an ace...time to bet my lock hand* Turn: *Good card, I still feel pretty safe*....(Our House gets raised).....*WTF!! OK, I could be drawing dead, BUT...I think most likely either I have outs to his two pair or I can be ahead to a margin of error for his bad play...I'll call* River: *SH!T I missed. But the pot's too big at this point....I only have to be good 1 in XX times....I CALL AGAIN* (Disappointment sets as villain shows AK or A8 or his set) [/ QUOTE ] lol, 5 stars. i especially love the 'lock hand' part, because i think the same thing.
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