good call or bad with 6 left

sixtwo · #1 05-19-2005, 10:37 PM

$20+2, 8k gaurenteed on party. 510 entrants.
The difference between 6th and 5th is $100 and 5th and 4 is like $150 i think.

Seat 4: hero ( $54778 )
Seat 5: ( $17268 )
Seat 6: ( $31042 )
Seat 9: ( $332224 )
Seat 10: ( $48664 )
Seat 2: ( $26024 )

Blinds are 5000-10000

Hero is in the BB with Qc As.
UTG goes all in for 17268. I figure i have him beat because he has less then 2BB and decided to put it in this hand rather then next. But UTG+1 thinks for a minute before moving all in for 31042. It folds around to me and it costs me 21042 to call. I think at worst its a coin flip vs the caller because of my read of his hesitation on calling. Plus ive played with him for the past hour or so and I think hes got a pocket pair at best. Im getting 3 to 1 to call, but risking 1/2 of my stack. Would it be a good or bad call? If i call and lose i have around 2BB left with the sb coming up (no antes). If i call and win i give my self a great chance to win the tournament because the chip leader has been tight passive the entire time and isnt stealing any of these blinds. The last 20 mins was just the short stacks moving in and stealing blinds and the chip leader sitting around.

sixtwo · #2 05-20-2005, 04:17 AM

anything?

Pat Southern · #3 05-20-2005, 04:30 AM

I think this is a call, UTG is pushing with such a wide range of hands, his push should have only a minor bearing on how UTG+1 plays. Winning this hand puts you in 2nd place by a huge ammount, and with 5BBs, you can't wait around for people to bust, because the other stacks are only one hand away from passing you. I'd call with AJ here, AT would be player dependent.

Brad F. · #4 05-20-2005, 09:21 AM

UTG+1 probably calls with good broadway, A-8 or 9 and up, an most pocket pairs. This makes A-Q a very decent hand here. I'd think that you dominate one of the two players and the other one has a pp.

Brad

ZootMurph · #5 05-20-2005, 09:55 AM

Easy call getting 3:1 with AQ, with the additional possibility of taking two players out at a final table.

schwza · #6 05-20-2005, 10:35 AM

this is a pretty easy call.

[ QUOTE ]
If i call and win i give my self a great chance to win the tournament because the chip leader has been tight passive the entire time and isnt stealing any of these blinds.

[/ QUOTE ]

if you scoop here you'll have well under 1/3 of the big stack's chips. he'd have to be playing just horribly for you to have a better chance of winning that him.