KK, overpair, coordinated flop

Boolean · #1 07-20-2005, 06:08 PM

Villain in this hand is a very loose/passive player with a 65% Went to SD. The remaining players are new to the table and are basically unknowns. Because of my relative position to the flop raiser, there's no way possible I can protect my hand. These types of hands, you just have to get lucky I guess.

PokerStars 0.05/0.10 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, 1 fold, MP1 calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, 2 folds, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (12 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (6 players)
SB bets, BB folds, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, Hero calls.

I call this due to the coordinated nature of the board. I intend to raise a blank on the turn or fold to a lot of action.

Turn: (8.50 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB bets, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds, Hero raises, SB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

Now that I'm thinking about it, this raise really accomplishes nothing. I don't think I'm winning here more than 25% of the time to make this for value. If I had position, the raise would protect my hand, but here it doesn't. Right concept, wrong application I suppose.

River: (16.50 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB bets, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls.

With two overcallers, should I fold this? Will I be best more than 5% of the time?

Final Pot: 20.50 BB

@bsolute_luck · #2 07-20-2005, 06:27 PM

actually, i don't think i'd have raised the turn- but i just reread your posting and you realized this yourself.

the river is a tough decision. personally, i don't think your hand is worth 2 overcalls. but as all the 2+2ers say "the pot is big".

Aaron W. · #3 07-20-2005, 07:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]
actually, i don't think i'd have raised the turn- but i just reread your posting and you realized this yourself.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think a turn raise is bad. Villain could easily not have two pair, depending on how passive he is. You've got a lot of donks in the middle who are drawing, and if you passed the opportunity to make them pay on the flop, you should make them pay on the turn. The turn card is about as blank as it gets.

Even *if* villain has two pair, you've got about 5-6 outs (discounted) to making a better two pair. And again the *if* falls on how solid of a read you have on villain. If he can't bet top pair on a two-flush, gapped three-straight board, then calling is okay.

And I overcall this all day long, even though it looks thin. I'm really worried about passive SB, but I would want to have a very solid read on him before making this fold. The donk-factor kicks in at around 5%, which is right where this call lands. Also, hero closes the action, so he knows that this is the end of the everything.

The donks in the middle are far less worrisome, although it's entirely possible one of them picked up a two pair somewhere.

aces_dad · #4 07-20-2005, 07:21 PM

If you raise the flop, the SB may 3-bet it, leading the middle two to face 2 cold, reducing some of the potential draws out there. Even if you don't thin the field I would bet for value there as I think you're best way more than 25% of the time there.

@bsolute_luck · #5 07-20-2005, 07:24 PM

well i like the bet, but that is why i don't like the overcalls on the river. i think the turn bet makes the river easier i thought to fold, which is why i said i wouldn't overcall based on how the hand was played.

had he not raised the turn, i would have overcall- kinda backwards sounding, but...

eviljeff · #6 07-20-2005, 08:14 PM

you've got an overpair and you don't think you can raise for value? reread SSHE dude.

Boolean · #7 07-20-2005, 11:48 PM

After some thinking, I think I played the flop and turn fine. On the flop with the draw-heavy board as it is, I forgo the positive expectation that would be induced by raising, by instead intending to raise the turn which will result in a *greater* expectation. When a blank falls on the turn, my pot equity jumps quite a bit. So by waiting until the turn to raise, I receive an extra .5SBs from everyone who decides not to fold. There's no way I can protect my hand or induce folds, so I think waiting until the turn to bet for value is the correct play.

#8 07-20-2005, 11:52 PM

Flop: Even somewhat coordinated as the board is, I'd raise here. You have top pair, and a raise punishes drawing hands for at least another bet. It might not induce a fold, but you earn value for your hand IMO. Besides, if he re-raises here, then you have some more substantial information you otherwise didn't have before.

Turn: The card is a blank, so I think you did the right thing here by raising. I wouldn't say you didn't accomplish anything here - I still think you have top pair and you're earning value on that.

River: I'd call here too probably. The 6 is unfortunate, but the pot is at 16.5 BB by the time the river card hits. You definitely want to see it though.

Era · #9 07-21-2005, 12:08 AM

Preflop : Standard

Postflop : I like this call. You opponents have lots of draws that can beat you and you will have a huge advantage if a blank hits the turn.

Turn : Blank hits .. raise. Nice. This raise is for value since you have an edge right now.

River : Dont fold this. Never fold big pots for one bet unless you are 100% sure you are beat. Even loose-passives like to bet with top pair. Even with the two other callers I think you win enough to make it profitable.

detruncate · #10 07-21-2005, 02:21 AM

I like what Aaron had to say. Yes, it's a scary board. Yes, Villain has lead three streets despite seeming passive. Yes, we're overcalling.

On the other hand, Villain might be feeling frisky. Even loose/passive players bluff sometimes -- it's one of those expected "real poker player" sorts of things. And I'm not that worried about overcalling against typical players. This one is a bit more than I'd like, but there you go.

I get where you're coming from, but I can't lay this down closing the action and don't think it's going to be particularly unprofitable in any case. Stranger things have happend than us dragging this pot. Will we drag it often enough? Hard to say. But I doubt we lose our full BB longerm.