Trip 8s: be careful what you wish for

So a few days ago I posted a short rant called "23 pocket pairs," bemoaning a streak of 23 pocket pairs that night without hitting a set. This hand was the 25th pocket pair of the night (sorry, no hand history):

Party, $50 NL .50 BB
Villain is LP1, has about $50 in chips. He's loose and passive/aggressive (35/3/12, as I recall), but only 30 or 40 hands at the table. He talks trash when he wins, whines when he loses. I am MP1, with about $75 and have been playing my typical game, so if he has GT on me it shows 18/6/4.

Hero is MP1 with red 8s. folded to me, I limp. 1 limper, folds, villain minraises to $1, folds, sb calls, bb calls, I call.

Pot: $4

Flop: 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

I bet $4, villain raises to $15, sb folds, bb folds, I...?

[octop]

You think thats bad

Today 1/2 nl i raise to 12 with 10 10 on the cutoff 2 callers
994 2 hearts flop
Checked to me I bet 2/3 pot one caller
Turn Ace of hearts
Check Check
River 10
He bets 40 I make it 110 he goes all in and has 99

I just started playing cash game NL so I don't have much experience. But if this where a tourney which I do have some experience, I would raise all-in. Thats a very scary drawing flop against your hand. The min raise pre flop makes me believe that he doesn't have it yet. I would put him on an over pair or an under set. I think with a min raise they would be more likely to have one of those hands than a 9 10 or a 4 5. Even if he did make his straight or makes a flush then you still have redraws to a full house or the unlikely quads. Anyone care to comment on these thoughts?

bump. li'l help, please.

[NYCNative]

If you raise those 8s the decision is a lot easier to make here (although I understand not raising as well) but as it is, I think you have to push here knowing you have redraw outs if villain has a made straight.

[Mr. Curious]

This is great for you. Sure, villian might have flopped a straight, but more likely he has overcards and a flush draw. At this point, the pot is $27 and villian has $23 left, so you should just push it all in.

He's going to call unless he was on a total bluff.

btw - Even if he has a straight, you will still hit a boat about 40% of the time.

[Macquarie]

Villain has raised 1 hand in 40, so T9o or T9s are not very likely - far more likely he has an overpair, and we are way ahead.

What about calling his raise and leading the turn? Will this win more than pushing the flop?

edit Villain has 34 left BTW, - he's might get away from the push on the flop [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[TreyOfLight]

[ QUOTE ]
What about calling his raise and leading the turn? Will this win more than pushing the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

He has to think we could have a draw; if we bet big on the turn he'll know better. Also, many turns (A, [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4, 5, 9, T) will kill the action from overpairs.

I'd rather get it all in on the flop. Sometimes he'll lay down KK, and that's a shame, but I doubt he's letting go of AK[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] under any circumstance.

[kevkev60614]

[ QUOTE ]
btw - Even if he has a straight, you will still hit a boat about 40% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

I calculate about 33%. Am I off?

I like the way you've played so far, and I push here.

By his vpip, villain is clearly very loose. As someone mentioned earlier, his PFR% is so low that he is only raising with monsters (granted only ~40 hands have been played, but a PFR of 3 shows he has raised once, maybe twice in four orbits). I usually play .25/.50, and I think that against these type of players, you are most often up against a big pair (putting you way ahead). Only thing I'm worried about is running spades. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

Is villain bad enough to call an all in on the flop? If you think he is loose enough and can't let go of an overpair (and many ssnl players can't), then push this flop, and push it hard. Otherwise, given his stack size, I think I call the flop, check-push the turn. This will make your hand quite transparent, but villain will most likely not be able to get away from the hand given his remaining stack if he bets ~half of it to your turn-check.

Comments? [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]