Let villain bet my hand on this river?

ebranig · #1 02-22-2005, 07:52 PM

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

MP3 is TAG with high AF.

Lets ignore my preflop (3-bet with the limper?) and flop (raise?) passivity.

I'm specifically interested in my river play.

Preflop: Hero is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
4 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 raises, 3 folds, Hero calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (6.33 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, MP2 checks, MP3 bets, Hero calls, MP2 calls.

Turn: (4.66 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets, MP2 folds, MP3 calls.

River: (6.66 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, (planning to call)

I'll explain my reasoning after some feedback. Thanks!

DemonDeac · #2 02-22-2005, 07:53 PM

i think u checked thinking that the villain will think u missed ur flush and will thus bet, but i think thats wrong. why risk it and just bet?

rmarotti · #3 02-22-2005, 08:01 PM

Just bet the river.

The-Matador · #4 02-22-2005, 08:07 PM

FPS alert.

Bet the river. It's a no brainer.

Perseus · #5 02-22-2005, 08:09 PM

bet the river unless you are at my table

...you should bet this for value every time

me454555 · #6 02-22-2005, 08:10 PM

Betting the river is the way to go here, no reason to get fancy. On top of that if hero is planning to check here, he should also plan on raising if he's bet into.

ebranig · #7 02-22-2005, 08:25 PM

Okay, here are my thoughts:

First, remember that he is a TAG (15% vpip, 9%pfr).

After he smooth-calls my turn bet i put him with 90% certainty on a high Ace (AK, AQ, remotely possible AT). Finally, I say there's a slight chance (~10%) that he's playing 77, 99, TT.

With this in mind, I think check/calling or check/raising is the correct line because high Aces will fold to a bet but frequently take a stab at it when checked to on the river.

Is this Fancy Play syndrome?
Do people disagree with my read?
If this read is right isn't it the correct play?

Thanks!

Grease · #8 02-22-2005, 08:32 PM

What if he has high hearts. I think checking the river is not FPS, but a textbook example of inducing a river bet against an aggressive opponent. He his tight and aggressive; he isn't calling down very often here with losing hands as the pot is small. Leading out will most likely make him fold (or worse yet raise), but if the hero checks, he has a high possibility of calling the induced bluff. Just my two cents.

ebranig · #9 02-24-2005, 06:14 AM

Is there any more input?

I'm really curious to know if this a the correct application of hand reading.

einbert · #10 02-24-2005, 06:39 AM

Most of the time a TAG is checking behind with ace high rather than betting with it. You have a lot better chance of him putting in a bet with a hand you beat if you bet than if you check.

Don't give AK a free showdown, if that's what you think he has. Many players will call a bet on the end with something like that, so charge them for it. They usuallywon't bet it though.