Picking Stocks and Poker

[GeorgeF]

1. Are 2+2ers behaving like the unsklanskified masses on the possibility of success in an arena they don't understand.

Stocks are much different than poker in that the poker player has a choice about playing. If you have more income than you spend you must invest. Your only choice is which vehicle. While you can say I don't understand poker so I will not play, you don't get to say I don't understand so I will not invest. If you have the money you must do something with it, even if that means putting it in a jar and burying it.

2. What percent of active traders make decent money (is it more than the 5-10 percent that do it in poker)?

Few if any make any money. My guess is that close to 0% of active retail investors come out ahead over time. I suggest you go to a good bsuiness library and research the subjest there. There is plenty of academic work on the who wins / who looses type questions.

3. If it is possible, what is the time investment required?

My guess is that you would have to spend almost all your waking hours for about 5 years to develop a system. If it worked probably 4 hrs a day to keep it going. You might be able to use your 'research' as the basis of an advanced business or mathematics degree.

4. What is the bankroll/investment money needed to begin with low ROR?

You could subscribe to a newsletter like bobbrinker.com or no load fund x and use the time you save not thinking about stocks to earn money by working (at a job for a salary). My guess that any effort you put into stock picking will not be rewarded especially if you have a small bankroll.

I personally think that you should stick with mutual funds until you have 100k. Then try some newsletters until you have 500k. Then it might be worth you thinking on your own.

5. Are Sklansky/Zee/other brilliant minds on this board deftly navigating the stock market the way they tear thru poker fields? If not, why not?

Although I like the books published by 2+2, poker is not like chess where each player is assigned a rating that precisely determiones the chess ability of any individual. It is not clear how good any individual player is, 2+2 authors included.

You also put too much emphasis on the stock market. The real business of stocks and bonds is investment banking, thats where the real money is. Retail investors that come out ahead in stocks and bonds are really just the upper end of the bottom of the investment world.

[Nottom]

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3. I would bet, that the amount of money that firms spend in one month researching or predicting stock direction - exceeds the combined total money wagered in poker over the last ten years.

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I think you are seriously underestimating how much money is wagered in poker. Party alone is raking more than $1Mil/day which means there is probably a least $50M/day being wagered on that one site and Party is just a small % of the toal amount being wagered on Poker on a daily basis.

I'd set a conservative estimate of how much has been wagered on poker in the last 10 years at half a Trillion dollars minimum.

I don't think we are seeing that kind of money being put into stock reasearch.

[Snuffleupagus]

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This guy might be on to something:

www.getfolio.com

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I read it and it looks interesting. Has anyone used this?

[moondogg]

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This guy might be on to something:

www.getfolio.com

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I read it and it looks interesting. Has anyone used this?

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The first item from their "Questions" page:
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1. The "wonderful" results of most systems are often the result of computer modeling and the ability to pick the best curve to make the retrospective data appear most positive. When followed prospectively many of these models perform much more poorly.


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[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]That is not even a goddamn question. Seems like they really got their act together.

Now I'm going to believe they they are making 43.93% annually for 15 years using a "value strategy." Such spectacular returns from diversification and value investing? Sure, why not?

If these clowns can make a 43% return every year, why are they even bothing to sell a service, and why do they not already have more money than Bill Gates?

It's debatable whether it's possible to come up with a system to steadily beat the market. If such a system was developed, it would never be sold to the public, as it would be absolutely priceless to it's owner, a nonstop money-printing machine. If, however, such as system ever became public domain, it would immediately cease to have relevance. A flood of cash would immediately flow into it, and either the potential profit would be diluted to virtual non-existence, making it unprofitable, or (worse yet) the market would over-compensate, causing the once-profitable system to now be a losing system.

Such a system, if possible, would only have value if kept a secret. Therefore, if anyone ever tries to sell you such a "system", they are either a liar or an idiot.

[Snuffleupagus]

Thanks for your response. It does sound too good to be true. That's why I was curious to see if anyone had tried it.

Email him what you said and tell us what he has to say. Should be interesting. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Here is the contact link:

http://www.getfolio.com/investment_s...onal_money.asp