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Old 12-14-2005, 05:10 PM
bilbo-san bilbo-san is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 34
Default Re: Coin flip middle of a tourney, do you take it?

[ QUOTE ]
Your tournament situation dictates that you look for a "coin flip" - you're below average stack and M is 10ish. But if I'm going to flip I either want the heavy end of the coin, some fold equity, or some significant dead money - none of that applies. You're a dog to his range, the blinds don't give you pot odds when called, and he raised UTG+1 for 20% of his stack - he's not going any where. I think you call here and play postflop - your chip EV on a call-pre/fold-post is about the same as your push and you may not have to fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

How is there not enough money in the pot to be significant dead money? There's 20% of Hero's stack in the middle. If that is not "significant" dead money, then you are essentially saying is that we should wait for a time when there is so much money in the pot that we would have zero fold equity because pushing would give anyone the odds to call with just about any reasonable hand.

If the OP folds even 10% of the time, then we have a huge overlay on a coinflip with T1000 already in the middle. I think OP folds more like 20% of the time, and pushing is just about mandatory.

Also, you say that the OP is not going anywhere. That's your logic for letting him see a flop and blowing you off your hand 66% of the time with a bet, even though you have 50% pot equity right now? If he isn't going anywhere, why do you want to see a flop with him with your 2 overcards for T600? So you can fold a flop and have even less fold-equity later? Although I guess it doesn't matter in your world, where fold equity is always zero anyway because villains never fold.

And what does "The blinds don't give you pot odds when called" mean? Are you saying that their T450 is irrelevant to the potodds calculation because they are too small? Or are you saying that if one of them calls it's bad for you? Neither statement makes sense.
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