Boat Odds When flop Trips

[wacki]

If you make trips on the flop, and there is a 3 flush on board, then:

You have 6 out's for boat, and 1 for quads making (6+1)=7 outs for turn[7/46 = ~15%]. If the Turn is blank then you will have 9+1 outs for the river[10/45 = ~22.2%].

For the turn and river its
1-(40/47)*(36/46) =~33.4% making a boat

Is this correct? The math looks ok to me, I just didn't think the odds of making a boat/Quads when you flop trips were that good.

[BugsBunny]

The odds are indeed that good.

[Bozeman]

I think we should try to propogate the commonly used more precise terminology that flopping 3 of a kind with a pp is a set, while 3 of a kind with an unpaired hand (two of x on flop), is trips.

[TomCollins]

Nothing better than the casino player who claims his set of kings lost to a better set of kings.

[blackaces13]

But the odds of improving to a boat are exactly the same whether you flop trips or a set correct?

[BugsBunny]

Corrrect, although the odds of you winning aren't necessarily the same. If you flop trips and get the boat via a 2 pair board you stand a higher chance of losing (if your trips are the lower one) or splitting. Even if you pair your kicker there's a chance that someone else also paired theirs with a higher pair (depending on your kicker, of course).

[handhistoriesdotcom]

OK I am confussed...Reading "Playing Low Limit Hold'em" by Bob Turgeon and his chart on page 26 says the odds of two pair improving to a full house are 12-1 8.51%. Given the odds of 33.4% listed above for a set to improve to a full house on by the river card, are there different odds for improving a set to a full house than two pair?

I thought the odds would be the same for both but I must have this wrong....

[BruceZ]

[ QUOTE ]
OK I am confussed...Reading "Playing Low Limit Hold'em" by Bob Turgeon and his chart on page 26 says the odds of two pair improving to a full house are 12-1 8.51%. Given the odds of 33.4% listed above for a set to improve to a full house on by the river card, are there different odds for improving a set to a full house than two pair?

I thought the odds would be the same for both but I must have this wrong....

[/ QUOTE ]

8.51% is just the probability for 2-pair to improve to a full house on the turn only (4/47 for the 4 outs). This is indeed different for trips since then we have 6 outs, and 6/47 = 12.8% or 6.8-1. The probability of 2-pair improving to a full house on the turn or river is 4/47 + (43/47)*(7/46) = 22.4% or 3.5-1. That is, we have 4 outs on the turn, and if we miss on the turn we pick up 3 more outs on the river. This is indeed not as good as the 33.4% probability of trips improving to a full house or quads by the river. In that case we have 7 outs on the turn, and if we miss we pick up 3 more on the river. Of course the quads aren't much good unless you have the winning kicker since everyone has them. The probability of improving to a full house only is 6/47 + (41/47)*(9/47) = 29.8% or 2.4-1.

[CitricAcid13]

Even if you pair your kicker, i.e. you hold JA and it's JAKJK, a single king will beat your jacks full over aces.

[Indiana]

I find it interesting that the odds of upgrading to the boat are about the same as upgrading to a flush from a flush draw...

Cool...Indiana