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#31
12-02-2005, 12:54 AM
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Re: 10-20 Stud8 Hand
My own very mechanical rules of thumb are such that, unlike Andy, I would probably fold on third street for one reason: both an ace and a ten are active in the hand. I don't like playing small pairs when players start with bricks.
That said, the third-street action-closing call for the bring-in is very likely not a mistake. I like the fourth street bet as much because of what my hand looks like as what I actually have. It's reasonable to bet the best low draw here. Both the ace and ten checked, so my pair might be good. I'd be more likely to bet here against good players than against duffers. Fifth street, I hate the idea of raising here, and I am terrified of a rase from the 843 and a reraise from the A8A. I have a backdoor draw to a rough seven, and my two pair might be drawing extremely thin. By the way, did you notice that it isn't just a paired ace but a paired door card?. I think this is a place to fold. 
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#32
12-02-2005, 01:29 AM
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Re: 10-20 Stud8 Hand
[ QUOTE ]
Since it's a 6-handed pot, any equity above .166 means Hero is winning if it's an all-in. So at worst, hero is a small dog according to your calculations. [/ QUOTE ] If by "winning" you mean there's a positive expectation, then you'd be right...too bad it's not "all-in" on 3rd. If by "small dog" you mean there's a negative expectation, I would agree as well. I don't care how small the negative expectation, if its negative, you don't want to play it. I think you may be confusing the probably of winning the pot (i.e. whether or not you're a dog) with the profitability of trying to win the pot (i.e. whether or not its profitable to play despite being a dog.) [ QUOTE ] However, I dislike this sort of analysis. I don't like it in Hold'em and I really don't think it's very good for stud. The reason is that you're playing a game with many streets of betting to come, and so the question of whether you should play is one of mostly implied odds. A better analysis of this situation would seem to be to look at the equity on 4th street after various card combinations fall. If most of the time, equity goes down, then hero is in a situation of strong reverse implied odds (putting money in the pot leads to situations where hero is expected to continue to lose) and a fold is prudent. If it stays mostly constant except it goes up in a few special cases (perhaps any card 5-7), then it's a situation of strong implied odds and folding is wrong. I don't have the time to play on twodimes right now, so hopefully I'll remember to look into it later if free time becomes available. [/ QUOTE ] I probably wasn't clear in my post about why I was posting the twodimes scenarios. I agree with you on the issues of implied and reverse impied odds. In my opinion, the implied odds are very poor because pairingthe door 6 early (which is what most people hope for when they peel one off here) would be a major scare card, and you'd probably get very little worthwhile action. However, showdown simulations are nevertheless good for giving you a ballpark feel for the relative strength of the hands. This is why 7CSFAP has such simulations in the back - to give you a feel of how relatively good, bad, or marginal your hand is. And indeed, the closer to the river you run these type of simulations, the more valuable they become. BTW, this hand is more accurately considered *five* way since the BI probably doesn't have a playable hand and won't be contributing any further money beyond the BI. That being said, you need a .20 equity in the pot for your "all-in" scenario to be profitable. In the scenarios that I consider most likely, you have pretty poor EV of .171 at best. When you compare this EV to that of good starting hands (3 to lows with good str8 and/or flush possibilities or highest pairs), you realize it just isn't worth the money, even when your ante is high as scags' scenario that he asked for my opinion on.
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#33
12-02-2005, 03:30 AM
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Re: 10-20 Stud8 Hand
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Since it's a 6-handed pot, any equity above .166 means Hero is winning if it's an all-in. So at worst, hero is a small dog according to your calculations. [/ QUOTE ] If by "winning" you mean there's a positive expectation, then you'd be right...too bad it's not "all-in" on 3rd. If by "small dog" you mean there's a negative expectation, I would agree as well. I don't care how small the negative expectation, if its negative, you don't want to play it. I think you may be confusing the probably of winning the pot (i.e. whether or not you're a dog) with the profitability of trying to win the pot (i.e. whether or not its profitable to play despite being a dog.) [/ QUOTE ] I disagree with you here. I think the following statement is false: "If by "winning" you mean there's a positive expectation, then you'd be right." Your expectation is a function of how you play out your hand, not a hot-cold simulation. When I say he's "winning", I'm saying that he expects his hand to hold up often enough that if nothing else happens (no betting, no folding), he makes money. The argument is more subtle than staring at EVs after 3 cards. There are two things that I'm saying: 1) There may be some cases that hero is a dog. But in those cases, he's not an overwhelming dog. If things go well in the hand (which is just an if), there are a number of favorable situations that hero can find himself in. In other words, the times that hero finds himself a small dog may be offset by the times he finds himself to be a minor favorite. 2) In a game with many streets of betting, it is not necessarity wrong to put your money in the pot with an equity deficit. Since my hold'em is much stronger than my stud, I'll pull an example from there. Suppose a player raises in early position. You know that his raise is almost certainly a big pocket pair. There are a couple coldcallers and you pick up 44 on the button. You can cold call in this spot even though your preflop equity is insufficient. The reason is that you have huge implied odds if you catch a set that will more than make up for whatever preflop deficit existed. I'll concede that I don't have enough experience to know whether this spot ACTUALLY has enough implied odds to make the call. I'm saying that your EV argument feels very unconvincing. Hero knows he is getting 8:1 to see 4th street since he's closing the action. So the question is how often 4th street will put hero in a profitable position (proftiable when playing out his hand with betting on future streets), and how profitable it will be. The way I see it, hero has 4 pretty good two pair/trips cards and 4 fives for 3-straight, 3-low. This means there are potentially 8 very good cards for hero to pick up. He's going to see such a card better than 1 in 9 times with a fairly large buffer for the times he picks up a good card and still needs to fold. My bold conjecture is that Hero is getting odds to try to catch perfect on 4th, and that when he catches perfect on 4th, he's in a profitable position often enough to make money. [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] However, I dislike this sort of analysis. I don't like it in Hold'em and I really don't think it's very good for stud. The reason is that you're playing a game with many streets of betting to come, and so the question of whether you should play is one of mostly implied odds. A better analysis of this situation would seem to be to look at the equity on 4th street after various card combinations fall. If most of the time, equity goes down, then hero is in a situation of strong reverse implied odds (putting money in the pot leads to situations where hero is expected to continue to lose) and a fold is prudent. If it stays mostly constant except it goes up in a few special cases (perhaps any card 5-7), then it's a situation of strong implied odds and folding is wrong. I don't have the time to play on twodimes right now, so hopefully I'll remember to look into it later if free time becomes available. [/ QUOTE ] I probably wasn't clear in my post about why I was posting the twodimes scenarios. I agree with you on the issues of implied and reverse impied odds. In my opinion, the implied odds are very poor because pairingthe door 6 early (which is what most people hope for when they peel one off here) would be a major scare card, and you'd probably get very little worthwhile action. However, showdown simulations are nevertheless good for giving you a ballpark feel for the relative strength of the hands. This is why 7CSFAP has such simulations in the back - to give you a feel of how relatively good, bad, or marginal your hand is. And indeed, the closer to the river you run these type of simulations, the more valuable they become. [/ QUOTE ] 7CSFAP has simulations in the back? Maybe I missed that when I read through it, but I don't remember that at all. Perhaps you have the wrong book? Anyway, yes, I agree that these simulations give you a feeling for things. However, I believe that your true expectation of playing a hand is tends to be higher than the equity value given in a hot-cold simulation. The reason is that (supposedly) you can play well and put less money in the pot in losing situations and get more money into the pot in profitable ones. The more streets remaining, the farther off the hot-cold simulation will be because its increased failure to take skill into account. The times when hot-cold runs hotter than playing out the hand is when villain has a well-hidden hand that hero can't see. I would guess that this happens more frequently in hold'em than in stud because of the shared board. Also, in stud you can "see" hands developing in stud, so it's harder to have well-hidden hands. [ QUOTE ] BTW, this hand is more accurately considered *five* way since the BI probably doesn't have a playable hand and won't be contributing any further money beyond the BI. That being said, you need a .20 equity in the pot for your "all-in" scenario to be profitable. [/ QUOTE ] This is a good point in terms of future action. However, in considering the all-in equity, you must still include the presence of the bring-in because he is contributing money on that street and he will see 4th. [ QUOTE ] In the scenarios that I consider most likely, you have pretty poor EV of .171 at best. When you compare this EV to that of good starting hands (3 to lows with good str8 and/or flush possibilities or highest pairs), you realize it just isn't worth the money, even when your ante is high as scags' scenario that he asked for my opinion on. [/ QUOTE ] Again, I would dispute 'isn't worth the money' at least as far as to say that I'm not convinced by your argument that this hand is outright bad. It's certainly marginally profitable at best, but I'd need to see some other evidence to convince me that it actually loses money.
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#34
12-02-2005, 03:41 AM
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Re: 10-20 Stud8 Hand
[ QUOTE ]
I probably wasn't clear in my post about why I was posting the twodimes scenarios. I agree with you on the issues of implied and reverse impied odds. In my opinion, the implied odds are very poor because pairingthe door 6 early (which is what most people hope for when they peel one off here) would be a major scare card, and you'd probably get very little worthwhile action. [/ QUOTE ] I don't agree with the thinking that if I pair my door card I wont get any action. Stud and Stud8 play a lot different. If this were stud hi than i would agree that i probably wont get much action at all, but in stud8 it is much different. People aren't going to want to jam the hell out of it with me when I pair my door, but by the same means they aren't all going to autofold as they would in stud hi. THere are TONS of times when a player will pair his baby door card that he doesn't have trips. The truth of the matter is that most of the time the player won't have trips, most of the time the player will have 3 to a low and a small pair. I think the logic behind no one giving me any action at all when I pair my door card is flawed somewhat. Scags
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#35
12-02-2005, 07:13 PM
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Re: 10-20 Stud8 Hand
quote:
You make some very good points in your post. I do believe that the correct move is to fold on fifth. Welcome to the forums. thanks mscaqs, it's good to be here. <font color="blue"> </font>
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#36
12-02-2005, 07:30 PM
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Re: 10-20 Stud8 Hand
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I probably wasn't clear in my post about why I was posting the twodimes scenarios. I agree with you on the issues of implied and reverse impied odds. In my opinion, the implied odds are very poor because pairingthe door 6 early (which is what most people hope for when they peel one off here) would be a major scare card, and you'd probably get very little worthwhile action. [/ QUOTE ] I don't agree with the thinking that if I pair my door card I wont get any action. Stud and Stud8 play a lot different. If this were stud hi than i would agree that i probably wont get much action at all, but in stud8 it is much different. People aren't going to want to jam the hell out of it with me when I pair my door, but by the same means they aren't all going to autofold as they would in stud hi. THere are TONS of times when a player will pair his baby door card that he doesn't have trips. The truth of the matter is that most of the time the player won't have trips, most of the time the player will have 3 to a low and a small pair. I think the logic behind no one giving me any action at all when I pair my door card is flawed somewhat. Scags [/ QUOTE ] Actually, what I said was that you wouldn't get *worthwhile* action. You think that pair of 10s will chase you? You think those busted lows are gonna risk any more money beyond 5th? I just don't see it. I guess I play a tighter game. I think this particular point is moot - those 6s are either partially or completely dead on 3rd...you aint gonna hit trip 6s enough to make this discussion worth having. jmho.
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#37
12-02-2005, 10:02 PM
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A closer look at 4th street
I found a good chunk of free time, and here's what I did with it:
Starting with grb's very likely scenario, I specified Hero's next card and randomly dealt out 4th street cards to the other players. For reference, here are the hands on third (Hero is chasing a 7 low, two 8 lows and a pair of tens high): Seat 1: 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Seat 2: 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Seat 3: 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Seat 4: T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Hero: 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (The bring-in has been dropped) There were 5 sets of random cards dealt to villains. The next 4 cards off the top were: 1) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Hero picks up a brick (K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]) Equity values: .134, .175, .120, .193, .206. Hero picks up an eight (8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]) Equity values: .135, .241, .153, .182, .258. Hero picks up a seven (7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]) Equity values: .084, .193, .143, .196, .241. Hero picks up a six (6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]) Equity values: .361, .480, .361, .467, .563. Hero picks up a five (5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]) Equity values: .162, .281, .174, .244, .293. Hero picks up a non-ace low (3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]) Equity values: .146, .257, .159, .205, .292. Hero picks up an ace (A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]) Equity values: .153, .274, .172, .203, .294. So what's the point of it all? There are 16 cards nine or bigger that are still live. If hero gets one of these, he has no reason to continue past 4th. There are 2 eights, and picking up one of these cards doesn't usually help hero enough for him to continue. The times that continuing is good are when all villains pick up bricks. There are 2 sevens, and they don't help hero very much. There is 1 six, and it's the magic money card for hero. There are 3 fives, and this does give hero enough help to continue. There are 10 non-ace lows remaining. Hero should continue with his hand as long as the seven doesn't also improve. There are 3 aces, and they behave pretty much like the non-ace lows. Hero should continue if the seven doesn't improve. In all, there are 20 cards that Hero can see where he will usually not play on. There are 4 money cards that make hero's hand worth playing. And there are 13 cards where hero needs to look around and see what's going on around him. Overall, since hero is getting very nice pot odds to peel for just the money cards (8:1), it looks like hero can pull out profit from this hand.
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#39
12-03-2005, 12:55 PM
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Re: A closer look at 4th street
[ QUOTE ]
I found a good chunk of free time, and here's what I did with it: Starting with grb's very likely scenario, I specified Hero's next card and randomly dealt out 4th street cards to the other players. For reference, here are the hands on third (Hero is chasing a 7 low, two 8 lows and a pair of tens high): Seat 1: 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Seat 2: 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Seat 3: 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Seat 4: T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Hero: 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (The bring-in has been dropped) There were 5 sets of random cards dealt to villains. The next 4 cards off the top were: 1) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Hero picks up a brick (K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]) Equity values: .134, .175, .120, .193, .206. Hero picks up an eight (8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]) Equity values: .135, .241, .153, .182, .258. Hero picks up a seven (7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]) Equity values: .084, .193, .143, .196, .241. Hero picks up a six (6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]) Equity values: .361, .480, .361, .467, .563. Hero picks up a five (5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]) Equity values: .162, .281, .174, .244, .293. Hero picks up a non-ace low (3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]) Equity values: .146, .257, .159, .205, .292. Hero picks up an ace (A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]) Equity values: .153, .274, .172, .203, .294. So what's the point of it all? There are 16 cards nine or bigger that are still live. If hero gets one of these, he has no reason to continue past 4th. There are 2 eights, and picking up one of these cards doesn't usually help hero enough for him to continue. The times that continuing is good are when all villains pick up bricks. There are 2 sevens, and they don't help hero very much. There is 1 six, and it's the magic money card for hero. There are 3 fives, and this does give hero enough help to continue. There are 10 non-ace lows remaining. Hero should continue with his hand as long as the seven doesn't also improve. There are 3 aces, and they behave pretty much like the non-ace lows. Hero should continue if the seven doesn't improve. In all, there are 20 cards that Hero can see where he will usually not play on. There are 4 money cards that make hero's hand worth playing. And there are 13 cards where hero needs to look around and see what's going on around him. Overall, since hero is getting very nice pot odds to peel for just the money cards (8:1), it looks like hero can pull out profit from this hand. [/ QUOTE ] Thanks for putting the time into doing those simulations. I know its a lot of work. However, I must say I'm not quite convinced. My main problem with your analysis is that its based on 5 random deals, which is simply not enough deals to base such a sweeping analysis on. Scenario #2, in particular, seems to be the dream 4th street (everyone bricks) that most puts you at possible 4th street scenarios equty >.25. Your simulation of 5 seems to imply that such a dream deal would occur 20% of the time. I also question your analysis of the 13 cards that require you to survey the field to proceed. If you could run simulations to determine the liklihood that a favorable field would present itself in those 13 other times, and then use those to determine which of the 13 are "bricks" and which are "hits" -- your argument might have more strength. But these are still very interesting simulations, and I appreciate the time you put into making them. -grb
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