Can you raise this river?

Shady Poker · #1 11-08-2005, 02:57 AM

Hero is me, "Shady Poker"

3/6 limit on Pokerstars, no strong reads really, haven't been playing all that long at this table:

PokerStars 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, MP1 calls, 1 fold, MP3 calls, 1 fold, Button calls, 1 fold, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (12.33 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets, MP1 folds, MP3 calls, Button raises, BB folds, UTG calls, Hero 3-bets, MP3 folds, Button calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (11.16 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets, Button calls, UTG raises, Hero 3-bets, Button calls, UTG caps, Hero calls, Button calls $2 (All-In).

River: (22.50 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players, 1 all-in)
UTG bets Hero Calls or Raises? 

On the flop I'm very confident of my hand obviously, but on the turn I three bet to see where I'm at and he caps it! This seems like a very strong play and the only hands that beat me right now are KK 46, and 69. I can rule of KK pretty safely, 46 is possible I guess but is it really possible that this guy limped utg with 69?! I mean, some people do like to play that specific hand and it seems like thats the only real hand that could be raising me on the raising my three-bet on the turn, because of this on the river when he bets I feel like I have to flat call due to his immense strength on the turn, unless hes just throwing money away... Can you really raise on the river?? 

Results in white:
 Hero calls and wins the pot.
Final Pot: 24.50 BB
Main Pot: 21.16 BB, between Hero, Button and UTG.
[Pot 2: 3.33 BB, between Hero and UTG.

Just for reference, Eptiaph is UTG (guy who capped on the turn)
Mrarataca is the all in button

*** SHOW DOWN ***
Eptiaph: shows [Jd Ks] (a pair of Kings)
Shady Poker: shows [8h 8d] (three of a kind, Eights)
Shady Poker collected $20 from side pot
mrarataca: mucks hand
Shady Poker collected $124 from main pot

*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $147 Main pot $124. Side pot $20. | Rake $3
Board [5c 8s 7s Kc 2d]
Seat 1: Shady Poker showed [8h 8d] and won ($144) with three of a kind,
Eights
Seat 2: vonstar11 folded on the Flop
Seat 3: Lordsmo folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: northsideSTL folded on the Flop
Seat 5: sampson777 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: mrarataca (button) mucked [Qs Ts]
Seat 7: bigcat38 (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 8: blue0307 (big blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 9: Eptiaph showed [Jd Ks] and lost with a pair of Kings
Seat 10: simmo2001 folded before Flop (didn't bet)

JJDylan · #2 11-08-2005, 03:54 AM

easy raise, IMO

Pog0 · #3 11-08-2005, 03:57 AM

If his VPIP is lower than 30%, then he probably doesn't have 46 or 69 and you're in good shape to raise. If it's >30%, then he could have anything (especially suited), and although you have to take that into consideration, he could also have 2p or a lower set. If I were you, I would feel a lot less comfortable holding 55 than I would with 88. I don't expect this guy to slowdown at any point if he has 55 or 77.

shant · #4 11-08-2005, 04:14 AM

Yeah I can.

Alex/Mugaaz · #5 11-08-2005, 04:47 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah I can.

[/ QUOTE ]

BigBrother · #6 11-08-2005, 05:50 AM

[ QUOTE ]

River: (22.50 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players, 1 all-in)
UTG bets Hero Calls or Raises? 



[/ QUOTE ]

raises, and caps a 3-bet, and doesn't feel bad about losing to 46 or 69 'cuz it just ain't gonna happen that often. KK is very doubtful given the early betting, but I've seen [censored] like that before and THAT would piss me off.

More often than not your are receiving donations from Kings up. Don't pull the plug on the ATM while it's dispensing.

Alex/Mugaaz · #7 11-08-2005, 07:09 AM

I don't cap here, but it doesn't really matter since the situation is so rare.

BoxLiquid · #8 11-08-2005, 07:40 AM

I wouldn't raise pre-flop. You're trying to isolate the fish but there's so many people behind you and the BB will probably call 1 more bet. You're probably gonna get called by atleast 1 more person behind you. Now you're OOP.

What happens if the flop has overcards? I've been in this situation and it's sick.

I would bet the flop with my 88 on a KJ4 board and get called. I feel uncomfortable from that point. This happens all the time. And if I check the flop then someone will bet for sure. What do you do then?

I would call with 88 if you know the table is really loose. If the button decides to raise with a couple people already in then I wouldn't feel so bad. You get crazy action with your set if you hit it. People will want that big pot so they'll stick around for the turn.

I would put UTG on 2 pair by the way the hand was played. He stuck around on the flop then the king came to give him 2 pair.

Not enough info to know if he's the type of player that would limp in with 96s or 64s. To most people even maniacs they will fold 64 offsuit UTG. It is a piece of trash to even lunatics.

I would hate to know I missed out on the opportunity to extract 2 more big bets from the villain in this hand.

edit: You can definetely rule out KK. A player that decides to limp with KK will definetely cap preflop after seeing so many people joining for 3 small bets.

Shady Poker · #9 11-08-2005, 11:35 PM

After re-analyzing this hand and reading the comments from users in this forum I do think I should have raised, mainly because even though he capped the turn, he can definitely be doing it with less than the nuts. Also, there are many more hands I beat then lose to and realistically he probably doesn't have me beat...

Out of curiousity, would you guys still raise in my position if the player who was capping the turn was in the big blind? It then makes it more likely that he has a rag straight hand, 46 or 69 and paid one extra bet preflop. The chances of him having one of the 2 or 3 hands that beat me are low but are more likely from a blind, would you raise the river if he was a blind?

Thanks

shant · #10 11-08-2005, 11:38 PM

My answer stays the same.