$33: JJ facing raise on the bubble.

Could we be over-thinking this...here is why i say that:

First, we are only 4 handed here, so play loosens up considerably. I make raises like this often because it puts one potential raiser (button on this hand) in the middle of a bet that if the shortstack decides to play, hes gonna push. therefore, if the button calls, he better be prepared for a push because you came out strong and showed strength...and if hes not gonna push here, he wont limp either, so he will fold. if the SB pushes, now you are in the middle because if you call, he can come over the top and put you all in. so, if you arent willing to push, you will likely fold here. so, that means mission accomplished for him, he either gets heads up against the shortstack or he takes the blinds.

I make this type of move and its quite successful for isolating the shortstack. and i dont like it when someone pushes here, so i would push.

[xJMPx]

I must have been runing this through SNGPT (just got it today!) as ciaran was posting.

Using the following range for the villain.: 22+,A2+,KTo+,K5s+ for the villain.

And assuming he'll call my push (ie. setting SNGPT as if Villain has pushed), this is -1.1% $EV.

I am going to look at this a different way than ciaran however. I think because this is not a hugely -$EV situation (maybe I'm wrong, how big a difference is -1.1% and say -0.5%? I'm new to SNGPT) that pushing here brings this to a +$EV because of the large percentage of time the villain folds. Remember, the -1.1% assumes he'll call.

[Ogre]

the read you have makes this a pretty easy push. if the short stack had a few less BBs it would be a fold

[caretaker1]

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EZ Push against his likely range.

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I'd normally expect villain to have a tighter range than this.



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I agree. Against this range, is it still -$EV?

[ravensfan]

Hey Devin,

The reason I thought he'd put you on a looser hand range is due to the fact that: a) he's been raising a fair bit, and you're probably trying to punish him - i dunno call it the "aggravation factor", or the "he thinks i have sh*t, so he's playing top 1/3 hands factor" or whatever... b) his weak raise of $700 is begging for you to come over the top, especially given his recent history, therefore it might be nothing more than a semi-positional play. If i were in his position and made that weak-ass raise, i'd suspect that you might very well have only top 1/3.

The important question is: why raise $700 if you're going to call a push with K5s? Wouldn't he have had much greater FE by just pushing? Seems he didn't think more than one step ahead!!

[ravensfan]

Should we put him on 22-55?

[me1tdown]

I think you should put the villian on your favorites list.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
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EZ Push against his likely range.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd normally expect villain to have a tighter range than this.



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I agree. Against this range, is it still -$EV?

[/ QUOTE ]

The tighter his range, the more likely he is to call a push, and given that playing JJ against his K5s here (if you knew that's what he had and he'd call a push) is -0.5% $EV, the tighter he is the worse it is for hero.

Basically, for hero's push here to be a good play, villain has to fold a lot of the semi-crap hands he could be stealing with, and given villain's raise and stack (and donkish image) he's probably, or very nearly, justified (or will think he is) in calling a push with a lot of those semi-crap hands.

All these results are due primarily to the stack situation and villain's relative cluelessness. If hero swaps stacks with villain, this becomes an easy push even if villain falls in the tight range in SNGPT (66+/ATs+/AJo+). Likewise, if villain has shown he'll fold to a re-steal in the past, pushing over the top off him will work (and probably with much lesser hands than JJ).

To change the question a little, how would everyone feel about hero calling if villain had open pushed?

[ravensfan]

That was I was thinking...

[ravensfan]

Fold: be hard to put him on less than K5s, which is apparently -0.5 when villian calls a push. Since you're -EV when he has the worst, it can only get worse, given he has at least one overcard. Probability of underpair should not significantly change this, from an overall tournament perspective IMO. Particularly since if he's been raising 2.5-4.5x BB ish lately, a push should imply he's on a better hand, more often than not - why bluff away his commanding stack with say, 84o when the small bets seem to work.
Small stack and 3rd may start getting desperate soon, so sit back and pick a better spot.