Keeping the Initiative (Stars 100 hand)

[jhall23]

Pretty early in the session.

Button in this hand is phisy, very loose aggro pre-flop but not as aggro post flop.

MP2 is definetly tight and seemed pretty passive at the time. He is a multi-tabling, however I haven't played much in this game yet so I don't know if he is a regular or not. After getting many more hands on him he is definetly very passive post-flop.

On the flop, I sometimes go for the c/r sometimes lead this time went for the lead. I could have hands that lead the flop and would make the straight and then lead again, but they wouldn't no that at the time.

Do you think this is a good spot to keep the initiative on the turn?

PokerStars Pot-Limit Omaha High, $1.00 BB (7 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

MP2 ($86)
CO ($49.85)
Button ($83.70)
SB ($97)
BB ($64)
UTG ($97.25)
Hero ($139.15)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls $1, MP2 calls $1, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $3</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero calls $2, MP2 calls $2.

Flop: ($10.50) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $10</font>, MP2 calls $10, Button calls $10.

Turn: ($40.50) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $25</font>

[Tilt]

I hate this situation.

I think leading the turn is best. If you don't lead the turn and its checked through to a river spade, you'll be in a world of hurt. Also a weak straight here may fold on the turn, but if you check he may bet or call you on the river.

If you are raised on the turn I think you need to wind up all-in. Your odds will be close with these stack sizes against a straight, plus there is a decent chance that you are up against a badly played underset by these passive opponents (or underset + flush draw).

If you just get called and don't fill up, its going to be a tough play at the river.

[jhall23]

That's pretty much were my head was during the hand. The Tighty calling on the flop was a suprise as his MO is fold-fold-fold. After the hand I was thinking a check might be prudent because he is so tight that the 10 might make his hand but I didn't want to simply check call in the 3 way pot getting 3:1 (what could have easily have happend). Figured maybe he might find a fold or simply call down with a lower set and I would been fine with getting heads up with the fish as he would be more likely to go broke with a lower set or two pair.

As it played out tighty pushed and the fish folded. It was 48 bucks into a ~135 pot. Based on my hunch of tighty I doubt he was playing a set like this since a) he is so damn passive and b)fish was left to act and probably calls too much. Probably marginal EV either way and I let him take it down.

[sawseech]

there's a fair chance you're against an uninterfered wrap and just died

check and look for a price

edit.

oh, you only need to be good a little more that 1/4 of the time here

i can't see folding for that price. like dude said, underset + FD is just as likely.

[jhall23]

[ QUOTE ]


i can't see folding for that price. like dude said, underset + FD is just as likely.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think so against this villian. He is was playing very weak tight. If you are familiar with Poker Tracker stats he had 22/.07/.5 (VPIP/PFR/Post Flop Agg) with a very low went to showdown percentage in ~350 hands. Certainly it's possible but definetly not as likely as having the made straight.

Thought it might be usefull to do an EV calc to see how often he would need lower set + flush draw compared to the made straight. Keeping it simple where with the straight I still have all 10 Boat or better outs and with the set/fd he has 8 outs.

Total pot would be 183 and my current stack is 101.

183 * .227 = ~41
183 * .818 = ~150

150x + 41y = 101

So if I did my calcs right to break even at 101 I need him to have the set/fd about 45% here. Against this guy I am not sure I give much up folding, thought it might be good for the image to call there.

Against an unkown opponent or the other villian I don't think I would have any problems getting it in here.


[ QUOTE ]
If you are raised on the turn I think you need to wind up all-in. Your odds will be close with these stack sizes against a straight, plus there is a decent chance that you are up against a badly played underset by these passive opponents (or underset + flush draw).

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey Tilt,

I was thinking a little more on this. If when I made my bet and was content to get all in against either of the opponents, do you still like my bet size? Pot must have been about 38 bucks after rake. Seems if we are going to call the all in maybe we should pot it so that we charge more (have a better shot to win it flat out) and then are getting in with better odds if they push. A smaller bet might be good to induce a semi-bluff raise, but with these pot/stack sizes I think that is pretty unlikely to happen.

[Tilt]

No, I like your bet size as is. A spade draw or unmade straight draw may still call (but may muck to a bigger bet). If you are called in one or two places, a smaller bet gives you more room on the river to maneuver.

If you are flat called in both places to a river blank you have enough behind to make a block/value bet on the river and fold if they come over the top. If your read is that one of them has a weak straight (based on your knowledge of the opponents) and can make a fold you can pot the river.

If you are called in both places to a double scare card (broadway spade) its an easy check/fold I believe.

If you are called in one place to a blank value/block the river or make a read above against a possible weak straight. If you are called in one place to a non-broadway spade, value/block bet, to another broadway card I probably just check/muck.

There is an argument for just potting the turn and folding to a raise. Its a pretty close decision. If they were tricky opponents they might smell the smaller bet as weakness and semi-bluff you off. I think for situatoins just like these its important to develop a history of betting less than the pot or even check/raising the nuts. If you only bet the pot with the goods until the river you can get read pretty well.

[jhall23]

[ QUOTE ]
No, I like your bet size as is. A spade draw or unmade straight draw may still call (but may muck to a bigger bet). If you are called in one or two places, a smaller bet gives you more room on the river to maneuver.

If you are flat called in both places to a river blank you have enough behind to make a block/value bet on the river and fold if they come over the top. If your read is that one of them has a weak straight (based on your knowledge of the opponents) and can make a fold you can pot the river.

If you are called in both places to a double scare card (broadway spade) its an easy check/fold I believe.

If you are called in one place to a blank value/block the river or make a read above against a possible weak straight. If you are called in one place to a non-broadway spade, value/block bet, to another broadway card I probably just check/muck.

There is an argument for just potting the turn and folding to a raise. Its a pretty close decision. If they were tricky opponents they might smell the smaller bet as weakness and semi-bluff you off.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sounds pretty good except I don't think that there is enough behind to block/value the river if called in 2 spots. Pot will be like ~115 with about a $48 effective stack size left. Doesn't seem like a good idea to try and block here and fold to a push.

[ QUOTE ]
I think for situatoins just like these its important to develop a history of betting less than the pot or even check/raising the nuts. If you only bet the pot with the goods until the river you can get read pretty well.

[/ QUOTE ]

But of course. Unfortuantely this was one of my first splashes in the Stars 100 game and I have no history yet. The 350 hands on Tighty were at the end of my sessions that night (though I was pretty sure his PT numbers would even out to about what they came to). I often bet less then pot with the nuts, (mostly on the turn and river) so my opponents shouldn't be able to pick up anything by my bet sizes and a c/r against a lag on the turn is just too easy sometimes especially in spots where I am the PFR.

[BluffTHIS!]

The key point you all are missing, is that the particular hand in question, QQ42ss should have been folded to begin with in MP1. It is only worth playing on or 1 off the button. Sure the the flop could have come Q53, but in that case, especially at higher limits when there isn't a crowd seeing the flop, you won't get any action from draws or bottom set anyway. QQ needs a suited ace to play a little card with it or two other nearby straight cards. This is known as having a defense. When you flop a set of queens you want some kind of backup, even if only a gutshot or a higher flush draw. This will give you the outs you need to call a pot size bet by someone who makes a straight on the turn. And if by playing good nearby cards you also make a straight, then you have a freeroll and should jam the pot. I even fold KK with those sidecards in that position, because it is not good position and really can't stand a raise.

[Dan Rutter]

[ QUOTE ]
The key point you all are missing, is that the particular hand in question, QQ42ss should have been folded to begin with in MP1.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree, this was going to be my response.

[joewatch]

[ QUOTE ]
The key point you all are missing, is that the particular hand in question, QQ42ss should have been folded to begin with in MP1. It is only worth playing on or 1 off the button. Sure the the flop could have come Q53, but in that case, especially at higher limits when there isn't a crowd seeing the flop, you won't get any action from draws or bottom set anyway. QQ needs a suited ace to play a little card with it or two other nearby straight cards. This is known as having a defense. When you flop a set of queens you want some kind of backup, even if only a gutshot or a higher flush draw. This will give you the outs you need to call a pot size bet by someone who makes a straight on the turn. And if by playing good nearby cards you also make a straight, then you have a freeroll and should jam the pot. I even fold KK with those sidecards in that position, because it is not good position and really can't stand a raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow, that's tight. I have to disagree since I play AA-QQ from all positions and will call any raise (but not a reraise). IMHO, these big pairs are the major moneymakers. My stats over 27,000 hands:

Hand Win% PTBB/hand Times played BB earned
Aces 38% 1.46 730 2130
Kings 28% 0.98 680 1332
Queens 23% 0.42 722 606
Jacks 16% 0.55 675 742
Tens 10% 0.24 706 338
Big wraps 37% 1.19 76 180
Medium wraps 19% 0.14 112 32
4-broadways 29% 0.94 71 134

I am shocked how rarely good wraps and 4 broadways are dealt!