Odds of a major downswing?

[PartySNGer]

I've tracked every $55 SNG since Party started allowing 10 tables, whether I was drunk, on tilt, whatever. Since then I've played 1540 $55s with a ROI of 14.5% (including a recent downswing). In October and November, my worst 300 SNG stretch was winning $1300. Over my last 299 SNGs I have lost $582.

OK, I've seen posts where Irieguy says even the best players will lose over 100-150 SNGs. I'm just wondering what the odds are that a long term 15% ROI player could lose 11 buy-ins over a 300 SNG stretch. I'm not even overly pissed, just wondering how big a statistical anomaly this is. I imagine there's less than a 1% of this occurring. Hopefully, Irie or someone will know more.

[valenzuela]

1%, lol. All i know is ure guess is kinda low.

[splashpot]

Search for the ROI simulator. It will run simulations that will tell you this.

[Swedebubba]

11 buyin downsing - it's nothing.

Last week I came back to SNGs after taking a 6 month hiatus and hitting up NL cash games relentless. When I left my ROI was around 20%. My first 16 games I was OOTM. Figured I was rusty but not that rusty. However after playing 175 SNGs I have now put my ROI at 27%.

Being down $582 at the 55s is nothing though.

[PartySNGer]

[ QUOTE ]
11 buyin downsing - it's nothing.

Last week I came back to SNGs after taking a 6 month hiatus and hitting up NL cash games relentless. When I left my ROI was around 20%. My first 16 games I was OOTM. Figured I was rusty but not that rusty. However after playing 175 SNGs I have now put my ROI at 27%.

Being down $582 at the 55s is nothing though.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're missing the point. I know an 11 buy-in downswing is nothing, I've experienced massive ones myself. It's the # of SNGs over which the downswing has occurred that I'm wondering about.

[Mr_J]

[ QUOTE ]
Over my last 299 SNGs I have lost $582.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow 10 buyins.

[ QUOTE ]
OK, I've seen posts where Irieguy says even the best players will lose over 100-150 SNGs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not unless it was last year, when players here had no idea about the variance of sngs (no offence). This year, 500+ has been stated, although winning players here have experienced worse.

You don't know your skill level really is 14.5% ROI if you are just measuring it by that sample size.

[bluefeet]

[ QUOTE ]
Search for the ROI simulator. It will run simulations that will tell you this.

[/ QUOTE ]


ROISimulator Hosted

Original Thread

[SammyKid11]

So you're worried about a 500-SnG stretch? Wow. Three weeks ago I was an 18% ROI at the 11-33's (with most of that being at the 22's) through my first 7k'ish SnG's...over the course of my next 550 SnG's I was down 40 buyins.

Now, was some of tilt? Probably. I certainly didn't play perfect poker over the course of the losing swing. But most of it was just a CRAPPY run of cards. It happens from time to time.

11 buyins, whether over the course of 300 or 1000 SnG's...is really not that big a deal. You will experience worse if you play long enough.

[valenzuela]

cool link, how come u have a .com domain?

[curtains]

Its about 3% that a 15% ROI player will be down money after a specific set of 300 sit and gos. Its about 1% for a 20% ROI player.