QQ Turn (Warning: Math)

[party36master]

Foxwoods 10/20- 10 handed

BB is solid player, watches the game, and I haven't seen him get too out of line.
My table image is aggressive.

I have QQ in early position.

One limper to me, I raise, MP coldcalls, BB calls, limper calls.

Flop: 9,6,2 rainbow (8.6 SB) 4 players
BB checks, limper checks, I bet, MP calls, BB calls, limper folds.

Turn: K (5.7 BB) 3 players
BB checks, I bet, MP folds, BB raises, I ??
I am getting 8.7 to 1.

I think at first glance this looks like I probably have 2 outs, and I should fold.
But I think that the math justifies a call, taking into account reasonable hands he might be bluffing on.

Hand range for BB:
K9, K6s, K2s, 96s, 92s (I'll ignore since this is debatable), 22, 66, 99.
Since I have an aggressive image, I'll add AA and KK.
I'll add 7,8 played this way 1 out of 8 times he gets 7,8 (this might even be low).
I'll also add 77 and 88 played this way 1 out of 24 times.

I have 0 outs to KK (3 combinations)
I have 2 outs to AA (6 combinations)
I have 2 outs to 22,66,99 (9 combinations total)
I have 2 outs to K9, K6s, and K2s (9+2+2=13 combinations total)
I have 8 outs to 96s (2 combinations total)
I have 38 "outs" to 78 (16/8= 2 combinations)
I have 44 "outs" to 77 and 88 (12/24= 0.5 combination)

This hand is valued at 4.8 outs, and is a call.
Thoughts?

I think the combinations are inaccurate. My problems with it include:

-The omission of hands like KQ, KJ & AK.

-The unlikelihood a "solid player" is playing 78o, or 96s/92s out of the BB for a raise.

-The guesswork involved in estimating how often he holds 77, etc.

While the numbers are definitely debatable, assuming they're accurate you still need to take into account your effective odds. It's highly probable you'll have to call 2 BBs to snap off a bluff. Therefore, it's likely even with your estimations a call remains unprofitable.

With that being said, I think you're over thinking this hand. Villain bluffs here very rarely, less than 10% of the time in my opinion. I'd look at this situation like this:

-I have 2 outs to outdraw villain.

-Villain bluffs here around ~10% of the time. My effective odds are ~10:2, which is insufficient to call down.

-10% of the time villain's bluffing, he'll likely follow through with a river bet ~70% of the time. Therefore, I'd consider the possibility of a bluff worth (3% * 46) 1.3 outs on the turn. Total of 3.3 outs (1.3 + 2 drawing outs)

Therefore, I'd fold the turn comfortably.

Disclaimer - Only a quick analysis, so the above may be riddled with errors. [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]

[Alex/Mugaaz]

This is an easy laydown for me.