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#1
12-02-2005, 11:42 PM
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Re: QQ overpair hand - $200 NL
[ QUOTE ]
Why call if youre only good 10% of the time? Obviously you shouldnt. But almost everyone will anyway. I just hardly ever see anyone minimum raise the river and lose the hand. I see people win alot more often when they min raise the river than when they make a much larger raise. I honestly cant figure out what he has which is why Im 99% sure I would call his raise and Im pretty sure I would lose just based on long term results of similar situations. It seems like he has the flush, but he played it strangly. You said he was goofy so that could explain his strange line. [/ QUOTE ] I can't make much sense of this post. Is the river a +EV call? 
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#2
12-02-2005, 11:50 PM
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Re: QQ overpair hand - $200 NL
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Why call if youre only good 10% of the time? Obviously you shouldnt. But almost everyone will anyway. I just hardly ever see anyone minimum raise the river and lose the hand. I see people win alot more often when they min raise the river than when they make a much larger raise. I honestly cant figure out what he has which is why Im 99% sure I would call his raise and Im pretty sure I would lose just based on long term results of similar situations. It seems like he has the flush, but he played it strangly. You said he was goofy so that could explain his strange line. [/ QUOTE ] I can't make much sense of this post. Is the river a +EV call? [/ QUOTE ] I think Ive said several times that I dont think it is, but I know that I would make it anyway in the heat of the moment. I agree with your check/call turn. I think you shouldve done the same on the river. I dont think you knew if you were making a blocking bet or a value bet (maybe it was a combination). If you had gotten raised for real, you wouldve folded. Thats why his minimum raise is a good move alot of times. However, this time I dont know if it is or not depending on what he has. If he has a flush and he min raises you might come back over the top and hes has a tough decision. If he has a set / boat, he shouldve bet more on the turn. Thats why I cant put him on a hand but Im leaning towards the nut flush based on his small turn bet that seemed to want to keep you in the hand.
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#5
12-04-2005, 08:46 AM
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Re: QQ overpair hand - $200 NL
[ QUOTE ]
Villain had 99 no club and mhig The river seemed to be either some very sophisticated bluffing play or just stupidity [/ QUOTE ] Very weird indeed. Against the hand he turned out to have you really made the maximum with this line, and if you checked it to him on the river he probably wouldn't bluff at it either. I really like your turn play, I don't know if I would have played it like that myself, but I will in the future. I am still not sure about the river. I agree with Savmans analysis, bet against loose passive, against aggros check call. Your bet looks fairly weak. Would you check the turn with a set? Maybe, but you would surely bet more on the river right? It looks exactly like the type of hand you have. So given your weak lead, I think you have to call against a weird opponent, and maybe this was exactly the point of the bet amount? Check call is probably the standard low variance play, but I don't know if it maximizes value. NH anyway.
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