ICM/SNGPT rambling thoughts(long)

[AliasMrJones]

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it just cannot predict the future on its own, so your statement that there are no other important factors cannot be correct...even with 100% accurate inputs, sngpt still only does one hand...


icm may say that pushing gives you .23 equity and folding gives you .22 equity...but that does not mean u take it as gospel and push it

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On a side note -- How long is the bubble going to last? 10 hands? 15? 20? There just isn't much effect possible to your opponents on average in that period of time. Some effect? Maybe, but enough to justify much deviation from ICM? I don't think so.


OK, back to the main discussion...

Please, please, please read about ICM so you actually understand it before you post anything more. ICM PREDICTS THE FUTURE. IT USES A MODEL TO DO SO. THAT MODEL MAY NOT BE 100% ACCURATE. THAT DOESN'T MEAN IT ISN'T TAKING FUTURE ACTIONS INTO ACCOUNT.

I think we can agree that being dealt AA is the highest +EV situation one can get preflop. What is the chance that we'll be dealt AA on the next hand? Exactly the same as our opponents' chances. Extrapolate -- what is the chance we'll get a +$EV opportunity on the next hand -- exactly the same as our opponents'. What is the probability that we'll have more +$EV opportunites than our opponents' from now until the end of the tourney? Exactly the same as the chance they'll have more +$EV opportunities than us. (Assuming equal skill -- again a current weakness of ICM model as implemented in SnGPT.)

So, you see, ICM DOES take into account future possibilities. It does so by using the fact that on a long-term basis and on a short-term probability basis, everyone will be dealt the same hands and thus have the same opportunities. It then uses a chip=lottery ticket model to determine chances to win prize money, which also is taking into account future actions (i.e. 1 chip does not equal 1/X share of prize money where X is total chips in play).

Have I ever passed up a +$EV opportunity because of table image. Probably, yes. Is it often correct to do so? Even on average once per tournament? I doubt it.