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#22
08-03-2005, 10:40 PM
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Re: Should Pedro be thrown into the NL Cy Young Mix?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] ERA: Martinez 2.76 Carpenter 2.26 Clemens 1.49 [/ QUOTE ] like the ERA's of these three men speak for themselves? they dont. FIP formula: Fielding Independent Pitching, a measure of all those things for which a pitcher is specifically responsible. The formula is (HR*13+(BB+HBP)*3-K*2)/IP, plus a league-specific factor (usually around 3.2) to round out the number to an equivalent ERA number. FIP helps you understand how well a pitcher pitched, regardless of how well his fielders fielded. Pedro 2.54 Carpenter 2.60 Roger 2.63 While its not a perfect way to judge a pitcher its much better than ERA. [/ QUOTE ] Interesting numbers. I obviously need to beef up on my baseball metrics so I can join in some of the discussions. All I know as a Cards fan is I'm confident when Carpenter is pitching, and if he performs in the playoffs I won't care too much about who wins the Cy Young. [/ QUOTE ] FWIW, if you check out the XFIP stat, which takes into account a pitchers 'luck' with the homerun, Carpenter projects to pitch better than both of them the second half. 
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#24
08-03-2005, 10:57 PM
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Re: Should Pedro be thrown into the NL Cy Young Mix?
Why are pitchers "directly responsible" for a homerun but no other hit against them? Yes, it's the only place a hitter can put the ball where the fielder can't get it, but I guess I don't see how trying to eliminate fielding from ERA with just K, BB, HBP, and HR is supposed to work.
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#25
08-03-2005, 11:30 PM
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Re: Should Pedro be thrown into the NL Cy Young Mix?
The idea is that if you are making batters miss the pitches (strikeouts) that they have no chance of putting it in play at which point they may or may not get a hit. If a pitcher is giving up homeruns, then he's usually giving up beefy pitches (although I would guess the varience on HR's is high due to "mistake pitches" and those long foul balls [i'm still unsure how they don't count foul balls in statistics]). So basically it's just that they say it's "defense independent" because if the defense was really lucky and alligned themselves right where the ball was going to be hit every time the pitcher's BAA would be .000 and conversely if they had unlucky/awful fielding the BAA would be 1.00. So they're trying to eliminate this luck component.
Sorry if thats confusing Edit- I'm also not 100% on it so Jack/sublime/whoever correct me if I'm wrong
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#26
08-03-2005, 11:44 PM
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Re: Should Pedro be thrown into the NL Cy Young Mix?
It just seems to me like if you want to normalize a pitcher's ERA with defense, then you should take into account his team's defense somehow. I understand the intent of this stat, I guess I just don't like it.
Thanks for the explanation though.
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#27
08-03-2005, 11:52 PM
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Re: Should Pedro be thrown into the NL Cy Young Mix?
It just seems to me like if you want to normalize a pitcher's ERA with defense, then you should take into account his team's defense somehow.
why bother, when you can just eliminate the defense altogether? not only that, what if all three pitcher leave men on base in the 8th inning with two outs yet one teams has a horrendous bullpen. should pitcher A be deemed a better pitcher because he has a great defense behind him, AND a top notch reliever to strand the men he left on base? of course not, yet that's exactly what ERA does.
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#28
08-03-2005, 11:56 PM
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Re: Should Pedro be thrown into the NL Cy Young Mix?
[ QUOTE ]
What makes you say Carpenter should get it over Clemens? It seems like everyone now is saying Carpenter is #1, but as much as I hate Clemens, he's having an absolutely incredible season. [/ QUOTE ] Clemens is having an awesome season. But Carpenter has 5 complete games and 4 shutouts. That is pretty amazing in my book. Not to mention that he might wind up with 24 or 25 wins. That should give him enough of an edge to win the Cy Young.
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#29
08-03-2005, 11:58 PM
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Re: Should Pedro be thrown into the NL Cy Young Mix?
[ QUOTE ]
If Smoltz keeps going his name will start being mentioned too. 8-0 in his last 10 starts. [/ QUOTE ] I didn't realize he was on such a good run. I'm looking at his numbers now and he should be in consideration as well.
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#30
08-04-2005, 12:02 AM
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Re: Should Pedro be thrown into the NL Cy Young Mix?
I don't think ERA is a particularly good way to determine a pitcher's effectiveness either, in part because of the scenario you just gave, but you can't just put up a stat like that FIP and say one pitcher is better.
If you could normalize a pitcher's stats to an average defense, or the defenses to each other, or whatever you want, it seems like it'd be a far more useful tool than ignoring it alltogether. ERA is flawed. I never said it wasn't.
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