Men Nguyen makes the best/worst fold ever at the 2003 WSOP ME

[A_C_Slater]

The following is from Howard Lederer's blog of his 2003 ME run: http://www.gutshot.com/Roadtrips/howardledererwsop.htm



Our table broke after about 90 minutes. I drew table one again, and this time I found myself back with Men Nguyen. I also had my good friend David Grey to my left. David is a very good high stakes side game player, but he does not have a lot of tournament NLHE experience. I felt a lot more confident at this table. Almost right away a very strange hand occurred. David opened the pot for 20,000 and Men raised him about 40,000. David moved in on Men. Men only had about 65,000 left. He was getting over 3-1 to call. He now went deep into the tank. I was trying to think of what I would call with. I decided I would have to call with any Ace, and any pair. The way the prize money is structured, places 63-10 get very similar money. Yes, 65,000 is a lot more than 15,000, but it is only about four times as much money for finishing 53 places higher. Meanwhile, first place pays 2.5 million and third pays 650,000; almost 4-1 for finishing two places higher. Clearly, lasting does not have the same value now as it will later. I almost fall out of my chair when Men shows AK and folds!! He decided to leave himself with 65,000 instead of taking what could have been an even money shot to have 280,000




If anyone remembers this hand, David Grey had AA. The one hand that if the cards were turned faced up could not justify a call from AK getting 3 to 1. Of course ESPN did not mention Men getting 3 to 1 and I just learned of it and thought it is of interest. Can David Grey really be this much of a NLHE tourney rock?

If he winnowed Grey's range down to monster pairs only and did some ballpark math in his head based on that range, I can see the reasoning. If he just 'felt' he was up against aces, it was an awful fold.

[Sykes]

Wow, the only way for this to be a correct fold is to put Grey on KK/AA ONLY.

I think he just got lucky that Grey happened to have AA here.

[xorbie]

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I think he just got lucky that Grey happened to have AA here.

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i fail to understand how this would be lucky.

[A_Junglen]

Very specific tournament situation....sometimes all the math in the world has to give away to your read.

[ClaytonN]

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Wow, the only way for this to be a correct fold is to put Grey on KK/AA ONLY.

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Actually, you have to go one further and only assume AA, because it's a right call if Grey flips up kings. That's how sick a read that was.

wow.

[gumpzilla]

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Actually, you have to go one further and only assume AA, because it's a right call if Grey flips up kings. That's how sick a read that was.

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If half of the time he has KK and half of the time he has AA, which is what the situation is if you put him on the range KK/AA, I think you're still going to want to fold, because making a marginally correct call half of the time doesn't make up for getting pounded the other half of the time (though I haven't actually run the numbers, I'm pretty sure this is true). Let's also not neglect that it's possible for Men to say "Hmm, I think he has JJ+, I fold" thus making a bad decision that looks good in retrospect. I'm not sure if it's likely or not, but it's at least possible.

[jd2b2006]

I've read that David Grey is known as one of the tightest, ABC players in the high-stakes poker world. This could certianly narrow down his 3-betting range preflop (but probably not only to KK and AA).

[Greg (FossilMan)]

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Can David Grey really be this much of a NLHE tourney rock?

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David is probably the tightest high stakes player in the world. His range of hands here is certainly tighter than anybody else I can think of who would qualify as a very good or better player. He might be tighter than Dan Harrington. ;-)

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)