Going for two each time Theory

Buckmulligan · #1 12-05-2005, 06:27 PM

This should maybe be in the sports section but [censored] it.

The stat for the NFL wide % of successful two point conversions is 50%. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I interpret this to mean that an average offence in the national football league will essentially average an extra point if they went for two each time.

If this is true, what really interests me is this: If you are an NFL coach and you know that your offence is well above the league average, i.e. the colts or the sea hawks, isn't it realistic to assume that you can average more than one point, the reward for an extra point, for each try after a touchdown by going for two and thus rack up something like 7.2-7.5 points per touchdown on average?

There must be some snag here, beacuse this seems to obvious and too good to be true. Any thoughts?

Mason Hellmuth · #2 12-05-2005, 06:32 PM

I'm not a huge sports expert, but I think that because an extra point is basically automatic for any team with a reasonably competent kicker, the EV loss of getting no points at all is much larger than the EV gain of getting two.

kenberman · #3 12-05-2005, 06:32 PM

if you get 2 points half the time, and 0 the other half, isn't that the same thing as getting 1 all the time?

also, that 50% stat may be skewed towards teams who already attempt more than 2 points conversions than the average team b/c they are better talented.

but I dunno. the sample size is prolly to small to know for sure. nobody wants to score a TD, miss a 2 pt conversion, then have the other team take the lead w/ a TD and kick

#4 12-05-2005, 06:34 PM

I think this can be put in the same category as a segment I saw on ESPN a month ago.

Some mathematician calculated the "odds" of going for it on fourth down and said that most teams should go for it way more often than they usually do. When they presented this evidence to some head coaches, their reactions were similar:

"Sounds like a good theory, but has this math guy ever had his name on the front page of the sports section because he decided to go for a fourth down early, missed it, gave up a field goal, and lost by two points?"

ScottieK

trying2learn · #5 12-05-2005, 06:34 PM

as soon as you drop the stat to 49% it makes sense why they wouldn't try that. you're further from a lock that you'll make two half the time, than you are from a lock that you'll make one 100% of the time.

Mason Hellmuth · #6 12-05-2005, 06:35 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Some mathematician

[/ QUOTE ]
Was his name David Sklansky?

Also, hot damn the mods are quick today.

Buckmulligan · #7 12-05-2005, 06:37 PM

[ QUOTE ]
as soon as you drop the stat to 49% it makes sense why they wouldn't try that. you're further from a lock that you'll make two half the time, than you are from a lock that you'll make one 100% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

You don't think the colts could average 1.1 or 1.2 points per two point try?

jasonHoldEm · #8 12-05-2005, 06:37 PM

It doesn't seem like it would matter very much...what I mean is for those teams who have a highly capable offense that can score 2pt conversions more than the league average is the extra point or two they'd pick up really going to matter? It seems like most of these teams win by a larger margin than that most of the time anyways.

Hope that makes sense.

J

bobman0330 · #9 12-05-2005, 06:40 PM

Two reasons:
1. 6 points only ties 2 FGs, which is a common scoring increment. As you've established, the 2pt is roughly equal to the PAT, but loses big against 2 FGs.
2. Assume that each team scores 1 TD. If the first team goes for 2, it will lose a lot more than 50% of the time. 50% of the time it misses and loses. 50% of the time it makes. Then, the other team knows to go for 2, and ties the game half the time. Obviously, the real life situations aren't so formalistic, but the longer there is remaining in the game, the more this effect costs the converting team.

Buckmulligan · #10 12-05-2005, 06:41 PM

[ QUOTE ]
It doesn't seem like it would matter very much...what I mean is for those teams who have a highly capable offense that can score 2pt conversions more than the league average is the extra point or two they'd pick up really going to matter? It seems like most of these teams win by a larger margin than that most of the time anyways.

[/ QUOTE ]

Success is all about thinking at the margin. I'm sure that if you could convince any NFL owner that going for two each time would get them two more points in a easy, all kickers would be getting their walking papers.