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  #1  
Old 12-29-2005, 02:20 AM
PairTheBoard PairTheBoard is offline
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Default How -EV is DreamClown Preflop?

In the $500-$1000 Heads Up limit Holdem match between Daniel Negreanu and DreamClown at PokerRoom, Dreamclown is employing the following preflop strategy.

1. Play every hand - never fold.
2. Never Reraise
3. Always Raise with the button (small blind)
4. Always Raise from the Big Blind if the Button limps.

The question is this. Assuming both players play equally well postflop, how much does the Dreamclown Preflop strategy cost him in EV/100 vs proper preflop play?

PairTheBoard
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  #2  
Old 12-29-2005, 02:42 AM
livinitup0 livinitup0 is offline
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Default Re: How -EV is DreamClown Preflop?

HU strategy isnt discussed much here, and I've never played with Daniel. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
1. I dont think this is as bad in these limits as it is in lower limits...probably not the best strategy though.
2. Over how many hands did you observe this?
3. A lot of very good players implement this strategy
4. Kinda along the same liknes as #4

IMHO
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  #3  
Old 12-29-2005, 02:46 AM
sweetjazz sweetjazz is offline
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Default Re: How -EV is DreamClown Preflop?

First, you have to take into account the deception value of this play. He should be able to make up some of the EV on later streets because his hand range is necessarily as big as it can be.

That said, I believe the overall effect of this strategy is one that reduces EV, though by how much I cannot say. I think his decision to play the truly trash hands is probably -EV. I am not experienced enough in HU play to try to estimate the EV of those hands, but it seems like the consensus among most good players is that the junk hands are not profitable.

His decision to never 3-bet PF seems more debatable. I still think it is slightly -EV, because you want more bets to go in before the flop with your stronger hands. But you are limited in how much you can accompish this without giving up postflop EV to an observant opponent.

Just my $0.02.
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  #4  
Old 12-29-2005, 03:25 AM
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Default Re: How -EV is DreamClown Preflop?

i find it hard to believe that he is a top HU player and employs this strategy
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  #5  
Old 12-29-2005, 05:18 AM
ohnonotthat ohnonotthat is offline
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Default Re: How -EV is DreamClown Preflop?

Is he using these tactics because he want to show the world he is so great he can win despite the handicap of giving up so much preflop ?

Or

Is he contending that this is actually a good strategy ?

*

I am reminded of something Brunson once said; "a world class player with a pair of Kings is a serious underdog to a nobody with a pair of Aces.

Closer to home, our very own Mr S. once wrote, when depicting a situation when any person even bordering on sane would muck AA preflop in a tournament, "perhaps the only person who would be correct to call here would be me; the increase in sales of this [tournament manual] would far outweigh the small loss in EV in any one tournament.

(I was forced to paraphrase both authors - doing too many things to research either quote and I lent out the latter book).

I have no idea who Dreamclown is (I have heard of Mr. Negreanu) but I will put up any reasonable amount of money (reasonable to ME, that is [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]) to play a match heads-up with either of these gentlemen if they promise to employ this strategy and if their MINIMUM [stakes] were higher than I could afford, I am, as we speak, sitting next to two people whose checkbooks sit open.



Gee Wilbur, ya don't think, ah say you don't think, this could be a publicity stunt, do ya ?
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  #6  
Old 12-29-2005, 06:16 AM
Zotzs Zotzs is offline
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Default Re: How -EV is DreamClown Preflop?

I employ a strategy similar to this heads up with the following exceptions.

I still throw away the complete trash hands on the button.
I tend to raise the button LESS often with marginal hands if my cards are running strong and have been raising with reasonable consistency. If my cards are running cold I'll tend to raise more often with marginal hands both to add deception and pick up the blind on occasion.

The major problem I see with the strategy you describe is its predictable. Automatically raising to every limp in is something which is easily exploited. Your oppponent would just limp in with premium hands then reraise...
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  #7  
Old 12-29-2005, 06:46 AM
captZEEbo1 captZEEbo1 is offline
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Default Re: How -EV is DreamClown Preflop?

[ QUOTE ]
The major problem I see with the strategy you describe is its predictable. Automatically raising to every limp in is something which is easily exploited. Your oppponent would just limp in with premium hands then reraise...

[/ QUOTE ]Arguments like this are silly, b/c if Dreamclown starts consistently getting limp reraised he will slowdown his auto raises after button limp. Dreamclown is not a bot, and I'm sure he can adjust to other opponents, but the strategy given was somewhat of a groundwork for his strategy.
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  #8  
Old 12-29-2005, 11:11 AM
Kurn, son of Mogh Kurn, son of Mogh is offline
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Default Re: How -EV is DreamClown Preflop?

I don't think this strategy is all that bad, considering that one place where his opponent will have the edge is in hand-reading.

Now add the word "almost" in front of "always" and "never" and base the 2-5% exceptions on a random factor (not cards), and I'd go so far as to say his strategy is optimal against most opponents.
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  #9  
Old 12-29-2005, 02:52 PM
PairTheBoard PairTheBoard is offline
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Default Re: How -EV is DreamClown Preflop?

[ QUOTE ]
ohnonotthat - <font color="white"> ..

</font> Is he using these tactics because he want to show the world he is so great he can win despite the handicap of giving up so much preflop ?

Or

Is he contending that this is actually a good strategy ?

*



[/ QUOTE ]

Dreamclown claims he's done "the math" and I think he believes his play is optimal. Here's the back and forth on the subject by Negreanu and Dreamclown/aka Sasone


From FCP Negreanu-Dreamclown Thread toward the bottom - page 36.
==========
DanielNegreanu wrote:
"He prides himself on his mathematical knowledge of the game, but his math is flawed! He plays a lot like Gus Hansen plays limit hold'em, and while it's pretty close to optimal strategy, playing 7-2 in all situations is a play with more negative EV than simply folding it pre-flop. Assuming, of course, that you are up against a tough opponent.

He is a stubborn little punk, though, so I doubt he'll ever make that adjustment. I don't mind telling him, because I'm certain that he is so narrow minded that he truly believes that his approach is the best.

He talks a lot about all the bets I'm "missing", but he fails to realize that he is dumping off a ton of extra bets by habitually playing 7-2 off suit out of position.

He is way more aggressive than I am, and I'm comfortable in that position. I'm nore than happy to let him hang himself again and again. It's true that he wins more of the "dead money," I'll grant him that, but he isn't overcoming his other holes with those pots by any stretch.

I will not play long sessions online until I'm used to it. This kid plays a tons of hours and I think after playing for say, 10 straight hours he'd have an edge because of his experience.

I'm slowly getting used to it and will eventually be able to play longer stretches. As for now, I think 4-5 hours is about all I'm good for."
-----

Sasone/aka Dreamclown -

"Calling down 8 high unrelated OUT OF POSITION on kjj7, flop and turn, and losing to q high was just one of the many horrible 'investments'. I will get 3-1 to call 72 and know when to release it early (or when to bet the 2 i get checked into by k high). But these absurdly fishy calldowns with zero intention at making a move at the pot... If that doesn't resemble the very worst of Gus Hansen, what does? Also, I agree playing 72 is less optimal against a tough player than a weak one. But which one are you???????????????????????????

You know where to find me, rag doll. "
================


PairTheBoard
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  #10  
Old 12-29-2005, 08:52 PM
ohnonotthat ohnonotthat is offline
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Default Thanks

for the link. I seldom get good results with searches. (I usually wind up at a porn site).

It must be my search engine though I suppose it could have something to do with the fact I add "/NAKED" to all my attempts. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]
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