Party 10/20: KQo SB vs. CO steal

bdk3clash · #1 11-30-2005, 09:45 PM

CO in this hand seems solid and straightforward and hasn't gotten out of line from what I can tell. His stats after >2600 hands are 29.9/23.4/1.9 and he appears to steal a whole lot of the time. He's not a particularly fun opponent to be out of position against.

Comments on each street appreciated, particularly the turn and river.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: bdk3clash is SB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
2 folds, CO raises, 1 fold, bdk3clash 3-bets, 1 fold, CO calls.

Flop: (7 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
bdk3clash bets, CO calls.

Turn: (4.50 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
bdk3clash bets, CO calls.

River: (6.50 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
bdk3clash plans on check-folding.

Catt · #2 11-30-2005, 11:47 PM

I think you give up on the river (as you planned to) or give up on the turn. I'm generally not ready to give up on the turn, so I play it as you do. Facing a CO raise from a guy with his stats who is straightforward and in-line, you beat nothing in his range other than the very occassional KT and this guy checks that behind on the river in any event.

sfer · #3 12-01-2005, 01:26 PM

In these spots, I click his name on Party and see how often he's gone to SD and how often he's folded to a river bet.

Spicymoose · #4 12-01-2005, 01:41 PM

[ QUOTE ]
In these spots, I click his name on Party and see how often he's gone to SD and how often he's folded to a river bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Although I think that is an important stat, I don't think looking at this number alone can really help you. You need to think about what he might have, and out of the hands that beat you, you can weigh in his WTSD or FRB.

sfer · #5 12-02-2005, 12:03 PM

[ QUOTE ]
In these spots, I click his name on Party and see how often he's gone to SD and how often he's folded to a river bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

And then I usually bet.

Spicymoose · #6 12-01-2005, 01:34 PM

I hate these situations, and I think I normally just check fold on the river also. I'll try to give some reasons for firing again though...

You need to win 1 in 7 times.

He probably doesn't have a J, as I think he would probably raise the flop or turn.

Similarly, he might raise an 8 or 9 somewhere, so these have to be discounted as possibilities.

I would think that in this case he usually either has a PP, 44-77, or some sort of T, with the picked up straight draw on the turn. Maybe AT, KT. Although you are beating KT, if you check you have to fold, and he might bet it to try to fold out your A. There are 24 PP he could have, but 16 AT, and 12 KT. AT definetly has to be discounted, as he might cap preflop, and might play the flop differently, but even discounted I think there are at least 10 combos. Note, there are also other possibilities of hands he could have, but considering you only have to fold out a better hand a small amount of time, you really need to come up with about 60 other possibilities of holdings (even more for the times he has KT and would bet if checked to), and I think that would be hard to do.

Arnfinn Madsen · #7 12-01-2005, 01:45 PM

He calls more often than 6 out of 7 times here. If he has called with i.e. 55 he will call the river too. Check-fold is good.

Spicymoose · #8 12-01-2005, 01:54 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Yes, agree with you. He calls more often than 6 out of 7 times here. If he has called with i.e. 55 he will call the river too. Check-fold is good.

[/ QUOTE ]

Lol, I guess I wasn't to clear on my opinion in my post. I was saying that I think he has enough combos of AT or KT that will fold for us to make this bet.

Arnfinn Madsen · #9 12-01-2005, 01:59 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Yes, agree with you. He calls more often than 6 out of 7 times here. If he has called with i.e. 55 he will call the river too. Check-fold is good.

[/ QUOTE ]

Lol, I guess I wasn't to clear on my opinion in my post. I was saying that I think he has enough combos of AT or KT that will fold for us to make this bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Edited [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]. Will look into it more closely when I am finished multitabling to see if I am wrong.

Arnfinn Madsen · #10 12-01-2005, 02:59 PM

Okay, he may have:

Calling hands:
15 combos of AQ (discounting AQ [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img])
15 combos of A8
15 combos of A4
15 combos of T9 (he will raise but that's not really relevant)
30 combos of pocket pairs 33, 55-77, TT (discounting 22 for unlikely preflop raise and potential cap of TT preflop)

Folding hands:
10 combos of AT (really 15, but I think it is a possible he would fold on the flop, discounting it to 10).
9 combos of KQ
He would fold KT on the flop.

So somehow I guess you were right (and I wrong). He will fold a bit more often than 1/7 (appx. 1/6). If we knew he would bluff when checked to I guess a bet-fold is correct functioning as a bluff protection (protecting our pot equity since we can't call with KQ but bet with it (very marginal situation [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img])) ; but as others point out I think he won't bluff very often and a check-fold is correct.