Play a Foxwoods hand with me

[MLG]

my experience talking with david is that play weird means david has seen the guy make a play he considers bad, but hasnt seen enough of the player to definitively say he is a bad player.

[Chief911]

David,

I think I bet out about 2/3 the pot, and fold to a reraise. Especially if UTG reraises me. If someone calls, then lets see what happens.

Nick

[sirio11]

Basically, I think he has made some bad plays and some strange plays. I can't figure out the guy.

[scott8]

I think you want to see the river as cheaply as possible then.

[z32fanatic]

I would play the flop the same as you but I would check raise this turn if he bets 1500 or more. If he bets 1000, i would call with the intention of check/calling the river as well. The reason I would check raise is because of the diamond draw, and also because I think AQ and AJ will fold. Also, if we are called by AQ or AJ, we have 6 outs to split and 12 to win, not bad. I think by check/calling a bet 1500 or bigger, AQ might value bet the river and we will have to call 3000 or so because of the pot, which will suck. I like the check raise because it will make a better hand fold.

[adanthar]

I don't know B&M much at all so take this with a large grain of salt:

The flop is interesting. To start with, I like the check (betting gets raised too much and makes you check/fold the best hand on a lot of turns when you 'just' get called in multiple spots). So you check and UTG bets 2/3 of the pot into *6* people; even a bad player isn't bluffing when he does this. The question is what kind of hand is enough to satisfy his personal definition of not bluffing.

Here, I'd certainly call AQ. I think AT is close, but with the backdoor draws I'd think about taking one off. Having said that, realistically, you're saying he has JT or a weaker ace *and* is value betting it into this many people enough to make this worth while. I don't know that this is the case in a 10K buyin, snf I don't know what cards I like on the turn, so overall I'm not very happy with this call. But folding seems pretty weak and I don't think I could do it online vs. a loose player. Meh.

Once you see the turn, I think it's a clear check/call to keep the pot smallish (which fits in with what I was saying, because you caught good but have to check anyway.) If he does something weird like an underbet, I'd consider a CR to get rid of a JT or even AJ right now.

[locutus2002]

Hero check raises to T5000 (or twice the pot).

I'm folding to a push, and I'm pushing a diamond/7 on the turn, otherwise shutting down.

My rough breakdown (rough math to follow) is:
30% you are behind
40% there is a quality draw
70% you are ahead

My plan is to c/r out all possible drawing hands because they will not get sufficient implied odds to continue. And then bet the draw if it becomes available on the turn.


Hero is probably no more than 30% in the hand against 6 limpers (I used a wide range: all suited, all ace, all broadway,9, all pairs, and many connectors). Roughly the same as if you were up against 89 (two pair).

About ~1/3 of the time you are behind at the flop.
~50 hands you are behind (AK-AJ, 89,aa,88,99,a8,a9)
X 6 players = 300 hands. Villains are playing a wide range of about 900 hands -- so about 1/3 of the time you are behind after the flop.

The drawing hands:

there are ~60 quality drawing hands (tj,t7,76,!?qj)
So ~40% of the time there is a quality draw.

[aaronbeen]

I've never played a 10k event but without reads I would check and seriously consider folding the flop to any reasonable sized bet. A9s, A8s, 99, 88, 89s, and even AJ are all going to keep punishing you and I don't see you getting much out of the few worse aces. There are almost certainly straight draws out there reducing your equity and possibly tainting the remaining 10s. Aces aren't really outs either.

I know two pair and sets and the rest sounds like monsters under the bed but I think here it's a case of risk versus reward. You aren't in a position to show your hand down and win after any significant action. It's going to be a long and probably meaningless (my ranges are wild guesses and obviously qjs doesn't get to showndown etc) calculation and I just started pokerstove but I would guess your equity is between 25 and 50%. You could call a bet and then check/fold or bet/fold different turns but I think if you call three bets with this hand you are never winning.

Now that I've come out weak/tight I have to say that I'd have a really tough time just folding this. With AJ I'd almost certainly take the line most posters are recommending. Surely people don't limp aq in this sort of event...

Once you get to the turn I don't think you can bet. Too likely you will get raised off your hand. Check/call and block a missed river. Maybe checkraise a flush, even with the checking and calling I doubt you are going to be put on a flush.

[stokken]

I am nowhere near the caliber with regards to the repliers and op, but one question arises when I look at the action and hand. With this holding out of position almost any flopp that doesnt hit monsterlike is a journey trough the fog of war. Was there particular cause to thread carefully pf? If so is it not equally applicable post flopp.
Why did you not raise PF? If you have decided to play the hand if an A falls, why not think about what that will cost, and then see what a raise can bring about? Looks like a hand that can win a little but loose alot most times?
I like the c/r line as it looks strong and any subsequent push tells all. Dependent on bet I like to raise 1,5-2 pot when doing this move. Now I dont know the pressure when playing these stakes, but it is the most expensive line. Second I also see leading out as a reasonable move, being in the blind with a semicoordinated board makes you hard to read and again it takes some guts to move on you and any significant raise may be the gods honest truth and not a move? Extremely read dependent, If tells where few and apart you have little invested in the hand already and could save your chips for a better opportunity.

That wasnt very constructive I guess, but as I said readdependent. Most interested in why it wasnt raised pf

For what it is worth Stokken

[flawless_victory]

i wouldve raised this pre, but since you didnt and now looked at the flop 6way i am not calling 1K OOP there.

considering that you made it to the turn i check it...
if he underbets, i would checkcall if he has you covered and checkraise allin if you cover him.
if he bets pot or more, muck quick and wonder why i called the flop.